The Commons Bar Mk XIII - MHoC Chat Thread

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    Based on current polling using the

    2015 Boundaries the conservative would have a 114 Seat majority

    http://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/c...&boundary=2015

    Based on the proposed 2018 boundaries changes they would have a 125 Seat majority

    http://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/c...oundary=2015nb
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    (Original post by Bornblue)
    Its awful for democracy to have no opposition. Then governments get incredibly complacent.
    Not the Governments fault, the fault of the opposition, those who voted for Corbyn. Blame Smith for being such a **** challenger too.
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    (Original post by meenu89)
    Not the Governments fault, the fault of the opposition, those who voted for Corbyn. Blame Smith for being such a **** challenger too.
    It's not about whose fault it is. It's about the harm it does to our nation. Frankly we shouldn't have an electoral system which allows it to be as likely as it is - with a more proportional style, the Tories would face other credible threats and Labour would likely split without shooting itself in the foot.
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    I know poor opposition can make for bad Governments, but it is the fault of the membership for electing Corbyn. The membership will have to take the blame if Corbyn loses whenever the election is called. Many people I know liken this Labour Party to the one in the 1980s.
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    (Original post by Rakas21)
    All parties have people that will vote against them but as with Blair you tend to find that all the new MP's agree with what the leader wants to do.
    Eventually though, as with Blair and Thatcher, MPs in your own party will get frustrated by how centralised and authoritarian May's leadership is.

    *
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    (Original post by meenu89)
    I know poor opposition can make for bad Governments, but it is the fault of the membership for electing Corbyn. The membership will have to take the blame if Corbyn loses whenever the election is called. Many people I know liken this Labour Party to the one in the 1980s.
    As a labour voter, it's a sad state of affairs that I'm having to rely on the likes of Morgan, Osborne and Soubry to provide an effective opposition at the moment.

    **
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    (Original post by Bornblue)
    Eventually though, as with Blair and Thatcher, MPs in your own party will get frustrated by how centralised and authoritarian May's leadership is.

    *
    They were not betrayed because of inclusion, they were betrayed because they were no longer seen as winners.
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    Amusingly that ICM poll gives the Tories a 70% lead among the 75+ vote.and it suggests they may have solved their woman problem.
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    I'm considering submitting an article for LP and the Ad Hoc edition, but, since there is a bit of difficulty around the debate, obviously I'm going to make it about the junior doctor contract debarcle.

    I'll try and separate the opinion piece (my probably biased section) and add in a section about what we know, what the RL govt interprets it to mean and what the BMA/Junior Doctors speculate it to mean.

    I've probably gone in too much depth about it at times, so I'd be curious about what the genuine questions about it are.

    So please, to all members and all parties, drop me a message if you have a query about the contract and I'll answer it in the article too. As I say, I probably have gone in too much detail in here to spark debate, so even the basics are grand.

    I'll also ask if anyone wants to run a counter opinion piece to mine, again I'll be happy to outline the facts and let you spin it how you like. But I think I'll look at doing this.

    So yeah, hit me up.
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    (Original post by Saoirse:3)
    Those are the two goals for you in an early election scenario. Avoid complacency at all costs, and hope that Labour's "moderates" would rather lose than win under Corbyn. If you were to fail on both grounds, I think there is room for things to be closer than you'd like.

    Just had a playaround on Electoral Calculus using 2015 boundaries for interest's sake.

    Hypothetical scenario where an election's called, and the swings are:

    Tories -4%
    Labour -1%
    Greens -2%
    UKIP +2%
    Lib Dems +5%

    You end up with a very, very hung parliament. A "left bloc" of Labour, SNP, Green and Plaid hold 306 seats, whilst a "right bloc" of Tories and UKIP hold 308 (3 of those being Kippers). In the middle you get 18 Lib Dems, the NI mob, and the poor old Speaker who's job I certainly don't envy in that situation! In effect you get Tim Farron as Kingmaker asked to choose between a deeply illiberal individual with a poor track-record on human rights and no great love for Europe, and another deeply illiberal individual with a poor track-record on human rights and no great love for Europe.
    You're being absurdly optimistic in those swings, unless you're doing it from the most recent polling which you of course wouldn't have seen at the time, which would still give a big boost to the majority. But then I took the current polling averages given by electoral calculus, applied your swings...and the majority increases.

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    (Original post by Rakas21)
    Amusingly that ICM poll gives the Tories a 70% lead among the 75+ vote.and it suggests they may have solved their woman problem.
    Hardly surprising with a female leader

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    (Original post by meenu89)
    I know poor opposition can make for bad Governments, but it is the fault of the membership for electing Corbyn. The membership will have to take the blame if Corbyn loses whenever the election is called. Many people I know liken this Labour Party to the one in the 1980s.
    Except they won't take the blame, they'll blame the electorate for being too stupid to know what's best for them, or accuse them of all sorts of phobias, oginys and isms

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    (Original post by hazzer1998)
    Based on current polling using the

    2015 Boundaries the conservative would have a 114 Seat majority

    http://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/c...&boundary=2015

    Based on the proposed 2018 boundaries changes they would have a 125 Seat majority

    http://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/c...oundary=2015nb
    The fun comes when you suppose the Labour moderates see sense and split while it has minimal impact
    1476145635614.jpg

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    (Original post by Bornblue)
    *
    Pray tell me how the prerogative allows a PM to enforce through a treaty into law (which the exit arrangements will be) without ratification by Parliament?
    *
    You don't seem to know what the word mandate means, or have an understanding of the prerogative.

    The prerogative allows the PM to conduct foreign treaties and to sign them but they do not take effect on English law unless they are ratified by Parliament. It has always been that way. Parliament is ultimately sovereign, not the Prime Minister.

    * Her mandate allows her to be leader of the party and to be Prime Minister. That mandate does not allow her bypass Parliament in enforcing the exit arrangements. Any treaty is subject to a parliamentary vote to take force. That's a basic concept of British and international law, of which you seem unaware.


    Again, we voted to leave and we should leave without the neees for parliamentary approval. Anything after that should require our elected representatives to scrutinise and approve.*

    It's incredibly frustrating to come accross people who simply have no concept or notion of how international law works. *
    Ummm, it's quite simple really, no treaty has to be ratified by parliament, the entry and exit from treaties is a prerogative power, I'm not quite sure where you're getting this idea treaties require parliamentary approval comes from.

    It may be true that the Ponsonby Rule sets a convention whereby 21 days before ratification the treaty is put before the house and can be debated, but that is it, there is no way for a treaty to be blocked by parliament short of removing the executive by having no confidence. Treaty making is entirely done by the executive on the behalf of the Sovereign. The only other way it can be blocked is where specific legislation is required, however the specific legislation comes in the next parliament, a wise move on two fronts: it gets it over with, and it means that for any treaty change to be defeated it needs to be from political pressure or a successful MoNC.

    I think personally I'll take the HoC Information Office's word over yours.

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    On another note, anybody know anywhere I can get my hands on a decent knock off Make America Great Again hat that will arrive before election day, I might have some trolling to do the day after, and certainly on the day?

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    (Original post by Jammy Duel)
    Hardly surprising with a female leader

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    Really doesn't say a lot about what motivates women to vote mind.
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    (Original post by That Bearded Man)
    Really doesn't say a lot about what motivates women to vote mind.
    That was my first thought however in a world where the social justice movement is especially geared towards pandering to women and the kind of social issues women care more about i don't think it's all suprising.
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    (Original post by Jammy Duel)
    Ummm, it's quite simple really, no treaty has to be ratified by parliament, the entry and exit from treaties is a prerogative power, I'm not quite sure where you're getting this idea treaties require parliamentary approval comes from.

    It may be true that the Ponsonby Rule sets a convention whereby 21 days before ratification the treaty is put before the house and can be debated, but that is it, there is no way for a treaty to be blocked by parliament short of removing the executive by having no confidence. Treaty making is entirely done by the executive on the behalf of the Sovereign. The only other way it can be blocked is where specific legislation is required, however the specific legislation comes in the next parliament, a wise move on two fronts: it gets it over with, and it means that for any treaty change to be defeated it needs to be from political pressure or a successful MoNC.

    I think personally I'll take the HoC Information Office's word over yours.

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    It's pretty clear, as a matter of UK law, that EU membership amounts to more than a mere treaty, and therefore cannot fall within that element of the prerogative.
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    (Original post by Rakas21)
    That was my first thought however in a world where the social justice movement is especially geared towards pandering to women and the kind of social issues women care more about i don't think it's all suprising.
    That's interesting, in essence older female voters resent the pandering to the young female and because of that swing, vote Tory. Libs possibly being seen as similar to Lab in that sense for their views on civil liberties.

    Intriguing, (and alarming I guess).
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    (Original post by Jammy Duel)
    On another note, anybody know anywhere I can get my hands on a decent knock off Make America Great Again hat that will arrive before election day, I might have some trolling to do the day after, and certainly on the day?

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    try ebay
 
 
 
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