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    (Original post by Elipsis)
    Not really though... if you had 100,000 people flipping a coin constantly all year one of them is eventually going to get streaks of heads or streaks of tails. If there were sound and easy to follow principles underpinning the randomness of the economy do you not think that at least 10% of economists would be Tony Harrison?
    So let me get this straight, you don't believe economists because they're unable to forecast the cycle with any great accuracy, but when one of the gets it spot on over a decade in advance you write it off as a statistically insignificant lucky guess.


    Yes I suppose it's entirely possible he got jammy with his prediction, but he could also be one of the few economists that knows what he's talking about.

    Yesterday (Virgin channel 203) is screening the 1970s series The World at War again & I couldn't help but notice some analogies.

    It was obvious that Hitler was flouting the Treaty of Versailles but the European leaders didn't stop him getting stronger. The result was that the masses suffered. It was obvious that the PIIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Italy, Greece Spain) economies (and the Eurocracy) were failing to be accountable, the strength simply wasn't there to resist Blitzkrieg by bankers. When it was all too late desparate measures (The British Expeditionary Force) only delayed the inevitable. Recriminations are following as Europe seeks to tax The City.

    No-one believes the Chamberlain "peace in our time" message, Cameron is already evoking a Battle of Britain "Bulldog" spirit hoping we can tough out the financial war.
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