Turn on thread page Beta

Can Corbyn win the 2020 election? watch

  • View Poll Results: Can Jeremy Corbyn win the 2020 election?
    Yes
    554
    50.00%
    No
    554
    50.00%

    Offline

    19
    ReputationRep:
    (Original post by billydisco)
    I don't need to be a sociologist to look around me:

    Do police spend more time dealing with domestics in middle, or lower class areas?

    Do people with ASBOs typically originate from middle, or lower class areas?

    Do those in jail typically come from middle, or lower class areas?

    Are smokers more likely to be lower, or middle class?

    Starting to get the picture? I'm not saying middle class parents cant help their kids, i'm saying its not on the scale you lot are making-out. All these imaginary tutor stories, its just crazy.

    Poor children fail because their backgrounds are dreary, depressing and their parents are typically less-bothered about their education. Its not because their parents are soooooo hard-working they are working all hours. They watch TV and care more about that than their kids' education.
    So in these lower class areas, you still think kids have the same opportunities as those in better areas? You still think they CAN have a stable environment? The parents can't just move house or go to a better area, so stability is much more difficult.
    The parents often ARE bothered about education, but they do not understand it because they themselves were poorly educated. The child is probably also ridiculed and bullied for trying to work hard and be more intelligent- bullying rates are far higher at state schools.
    I understand that we may exaggerate the benefit of having more money, but the environment of less well-off families can make learning far more difficult. Not always, but there is a clear trend
    Offline

    2
    ReputationRep:
    (Original post by BigMelz)
    Yes it's possible. A lot can happen in a few years.

    1. He will be fantastic in Debates - Cameron will suffer there.
    2. He will be brave enough to suggest things us "common" people will start to think "yes, why not?"
    3. He will be principled enough to show up all the others' expenses fiddles, lack of commitment to the role of MP. and I am talking about all parties. The spongers and self-interested ones will no longer be welcome in public office.
    4. His environmental ethics will win over many.
    5. His presence at public events will win over many more.

    It's old-style, but it doesn't mean that's wrong, and the people might just be ready for it.
    1. He will be taken apart in the Debates - you can say what you like about Cameron's policy, but he is very very good in PMQs. And ultimately, the debate is about the policies, and Corbyn doesn't even have anything close to unified support for his policies within his own party!

    2. You're confusing a mandate from paying Labour party members - who by definition will be left leaning - with a mandate from the masses. Things he is suggesting include printing money with which to buy utilities, scrapping nuclear weapons, encouraging mass immigration. These aren't things that will resonate with the majority of the electorate; the first and last of these will positively turn people off!

    3. This I do agree with. As much as I disagree with damn near all his policy, I have a lot of respect for him. He has a lot of integrity, he is what politicians should be like. But ultimately, I - and I dare say the majority of the electorate - are more concerned with the policies these politicians are pushing rather than their morality.

    4. His environmental ethics will win over the greens. The Tory victory was not won on environmental policy.

    5. He stirred up a lot of support within the paying Labour party members. Since his victory, snap polls (not sure who did them, they were on Sky News yesterday) showed that Labour support went up in 'safe' labour seats and down in marginal Tory seats that Labour need to win if they want to be voted in in 2020. If there's one thing the election showed us, it's that the British public has a centre-right view on the economy and immigration. Corbyn's policies will alienate anyone who has a centre-left stance on these issues, never mind those who are further to the right.
    • Community Assistant
    Offline

    18
    ReputationRep:
    Community Assistant
    Nuclear Weapons really are not needed, because as soon as someone gets nuked, other countries would get involved who would also starting nuking other countries, so basically it would probably be the end of the world as we know it. As soon as someone sends a Nuclear missile at another country it will already be to late.
    • Community Assistant
    Offline

    18
    ReputationRep:
    Community Assistant
    (Original post by billydisco)
    I don't need to be a sociologist to look around me:

    Do police spend more time dealing with domestics in middle, or lower class areas?

    Do people with ASBOs typically originate from middle, or lower class areas?

    Do those in jail typically come from middle, or lower class areas?

    Are smokers more likely to be lower, or middle class?

    Starting to get the picture? I'm not saying middle class parents cant help their kids, i'm saying its not on the scale you lot are making-out. All these imaginary tutor stories, its just crazy.

    Poor children fail because their backgrounds are dreary, depressing and their parents are typically less-bothered about their education. Its not because their parents are soooooo hard-working they are working all hours. They watch TV and care more about that than their kids' education.

    Soooo Narrow-minded.
    Offline

    8
    ReputationRep:
    I honestly don't know if he can win and it will be interesting to see.

    I would like to think Britain is a country where the public do have a heart. People are nice here. If they see now that the tories, unhindered by the Lib Dems, are destroying worker's rights, cutting tax credits for the poorest and only begrudgingly accepting as few of those most desperate, needy Syrian refugees as possible (while pushing to bomb their country some more for good measure), then I'm optimistic. Finally now can the public see that the tories are still the tories? Same old ideological policy - f**k people who they don't care about and make life better for themselves, their friends and good 'proper' people who they define themselves.

    If that becomes clear, I think Corbyn can definitely win just on the basis of the tories being the evil b*stards they are. A lot of people voted for them with reservations and don't like what they're seeing now.

    The tories 'security'/'threat so security' campaign is already backfiring and the media are finding it hard to bring Corbyn down too. Looks like people might have had enough. Add to that the fact that in most countries, Corbyn's policies wouldn't be considered extreme at all (and I think people here are realising that), and you've got a powerful Party propaganda machine brewing.

    So I think people are beginning to dislike the tories, dislike the media spindoctors and are also finding that Corbyn's policies really seem quite reasonable, and the way he presents himself is very admirable.

    Therefore I'm optimistic that Corbyn can win a general election. Even if he can't, I hope the political landscape in this country remains wider like it is now. It was stuck so much in the centre last time the Lib Dems barely had any breathing room to suggest middle of the road policy!
    Offline

    16
    ReputationRep:
    Wow, this is surprisingly close!
    Offline

    2
    ReputationRep:
    So many mentalists in this thread. There's no chance of this man ever being elected. Some nutter would shoot him before he could.
    Offline

    17
    ReputationRep:
    Jeremy brings nothing new. The only difference is that he is a very rich Labour man who never had a job, virtually failed all his A Levels in spite of a silverspoon private education since he was a toddler, couldn't manage a degree at a Poly and walked out, Then went 'into politics' and has ever since lived off the tax payer without succeeding to achieve change in his Party but always complained and seldom supported his colleagues.

    He has lived off the tax payer and hasn't done a lot, just enough to get re-elected in the same constituency where Labour is very popular.
    Offline

    3
    ReputationRep:
    (Original post by Renner)
    Jeremy brings nothing new. The only difference is that he is a very rich Labour man who never had a job, virtually failed all his A Levels in spite of a silverspoon private education since he was a toddler, couldn't manage a degree at a Poly and walked out, Then went 'into politics' and has ever since lived off the tax payer without succeeding to achieve change in his Party but always complained and seldom supported his colleagues.

    He has lived off the tax payer and hasn't done a lot, just enough to get re-elected in the same constituency where Labour is very popular.
    loool
    Offline

    1
    ReputationRep:
    I'm not saying Corbyn will win, but I think he has a much better chance than most think.

    I know his policies don't fit a centrist, election winning model at the moment, but people forget that political leaders are capable of shifting debate and the ideological spectrum. It's something Thatcher did brilliantly; she was elected against the odds, as many believed she was too extreme to be electable, and caused something of an ideological rift in her party. The similarities are striking. However, four years later, Thatcher had dragged political discourse so far to the right that she wins a landslide with 44% of the vote.

    Also, you can't regard politics in Britain as a left-right dichotomy anymore; people care more about personality. Why did BoJo win a city which usually votes Labour? Why were UKIP voters more likely to back Corbyn than anyone else? I doubt it was his immigration policies.
    Offline

    19
    ReputationRep:
    I cannot see the losses to the SNP being reversed, as five years of hating the English Tories will bring the SNP vote out in 2020. There is no chance of 90 odd gains in England and Wales.
    Offline

    1
    ReputationRep:
    (Original post by barnetlad)
    I cannot see the losses to the SNP being reversed, as five years of hating the English Tories will bring the SNP vote out in 2020. There is no chance of 90 odd gains in England and Wales.
    So you're right - a majority should be outside 10,000-1. It won't happen. But remember the Tories have a hugely slim majority, and it's far, far more possible that we could see that majority eroded by 2020 if Corbyn performs really well.
    Offline

    3
    ReputationRep:
    (Original post by jjm456)
    I'm not saying Corbyn will win, but I think he has a much better chance than most think.

    I know his policies don't fit a centrist, election winning model at the moment, but people forget that political leaders are capable of shifting debate and the ideological spectrum. It's something Thatcher did brilliantly; she was elected against the odds, as many believed she was too extreme to be electable, and caused something of an ideological rift in her party. The similarities are striking. However, four years later, Thatcher had dragged political discourse so far to the right that she wins a landslide with 44% of the vote.

    Also, you can't regard politics in Britain as a left-right dichotomy anymore; people care more about personality. Why did BoJo win a city which usually votes Labour? Why were UKIP voters more likely to back Corbyn than anyone else? I doubt it was his immigration policies.
    bingo...people can be convinced. Not saying he will win because i think he will be gone maybe even before the election but people are starting to get interested in 'mad corbyn'....some of my friends at work are even interested to hear more about him because of how he is being portrayed in the media. Its up to him in PMQs to show and stand up for himself and the party. This was something Miliband and Brown were awful at.
    I know the UK is naturally to the centre but I will wait a year or so to see where labour stand with corbyn although on face value it seems destined for failure.

    people keep saying Labour lost because Miliband was too far left. IMO he lost because he just didn't come accross well and didnt have the PM look and image imo. People didn't trust him and he wasn't convincing. Like you said if you are convincing like Blair or Thatcher people start to take into you.
    Offline

    1
    ReputationRep:
    (Original post by L'Allegro)
    So you're right - a majority should be outside 10,000-1. It won't happen. But remember the Tories have a hugely slim majority, and it's far, far more possible that we could see that majority eroded by 2020 if Corbyn performs really well.
    Exactly. And I'd be very surprised if Corbyn wasn't willing to work with the SNP if he needed to. Really we should count the two as combined when assessing Corbyn's chances of becoming PM.
    Offline

    5
    ReputationRep:
    He has the potential if he plays his cards right. Huge huge HUGE potential. The thing with Corbyn is; is that he's different. He's not presenting himself with the normal, usual and traditional Labour beliefs, his leftist views and totally different approach as leader of Labour is what is appealing to people...hes not just 'another Labour Leader'. And that alone can give him so many possibilities...winning 2020? why not.
    Offline

    1
    ReputationRep:
    (Original post by jjm456)
    Exactly. And I'd be very surprised if Corbyn wasn't willing to work with the SNP if he needed to. Really we should count the two as combined when assessing Corbyn's chances of becoming PM.
    I agree. If we count the SNP, Greens, and Lib Dems - optimistic, but not ludicrous - we get more or less three hundred seats as it is cumulatively, which makes the outcome a lot more interesting.

    Yes, Corbyn has a huge task if he's going to win key marginals, but it's really not the impossibility so many believe, and a coalition of left-leaning governments is a victory the moment one thinks outside partisan politics.
    Offline

    3
    ReputationRep:
    (Original post by L'Allegro)
    I agree. If we count the SNP, Greens, and Lib Dems - optimistic, but not ludicrous - we get more or less three hundred seats as it is cumulatively, which makes the outcome a lot more interesting.

    Yes, Corbyn has a huge task if he's going to win key marginals, but it's really not the impossibility so many believe, and a coalition of left-leaning governments is a victory the moment one thinks outside partisan politics.
    it is how he comes across in the media

    thats what thatcher, and Blair had. They were very good speakers. Miliband and Brown were awful and no surprise they didnt do well/
    Offline

    2
    ReputationRep:
    Poll results starting to look like the Scottish independence referendum.
    Offline

    1
    ReputationRep:
    (Original post by xxvine)
    it is how he comes across in the media

    thats what thatcher, and Blair had. They were very good speakers. Miliband and Brown were awful and no surprise they didnt do well/
    Yes. In addition, I'd add that Corbyn needs to find a way to encapsulate nuanced policy ideas in convincing, compelling snapshots. One of the deepest problems the Left has is in communicating its ideas to a broad audience.
    Offline

    3
    ReputationRep:
    (Original post by L'Allegro)
    Yes. In addition, I'd add that Corbyn needs to find a way to encapsulate nuanced policy ideas in convincing, compelling snapshots. One of the deepest problems the Left has is in communicating its ideas to a broad audience.
    Bingo

    People keep saying 'you can't win an election in the UK being a lefty' etc...but all the lefty's have all been poor with their media campaigns and attitudes.

    Brown, Miliband, and Michael Foot come to mind and all 3 were poor public speakers. They didn't capture voters or make conservative voters think why they should abandon their roots and switch to the left. Thatcher made everybody move to the right, Blair although he was a Tory lite was really good at convincing people, such as traditional labour voters that the centre was the place to be.... it's almost like having top acting skills.

    Corbyn...i have no idea but we shall see from the PMQ's where he stands/
 
 
 
Poll
Could you cope without Wifi?
Useful resources

Groups associated with this forum:

View associated groups

The Student Room, Get Revising and Marked by Teachers are trading names of The Student Room Group Ltd.

Register Number: 04666380 (England and Wales), VAT No. 806 8067 22 Registered Office: International House, Queens Road, Brighton, BN1 3XE

Write a reply...
Reply
Hide
Reputation gems: You get these gems as you gain rep from other members for making good contributions and giving helpful advice.