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Warnings over Brexit from the big powers

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    (Original post by asmuse123)
    Which news? Provide links to prove your point.
    A n y news website.
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    (Original post by ckfeister)
    A n y news website.
    Yeah, you're not providing any proof, and therefore your point is useless. Perhaps you need to get better at debating?
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    (Original post by asmuse123)
    Norway and Switzerland have to follow the four freedoms of the EU, particularly freedom of movement. Switzerland is going to give up the freedom of movement and they're in talks now about the EU-Switzerland future, they've also been cut off from much of the research funding from the EU.
    Exactly. We'd be stupid to sign up to one of these kind of deals. We either leave and do it properly, or we stay as is. No inbetweens that put us in a worse position than either outcome.
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    (Original post by asmuse123)
    Yeah, you're not providing any proof, and therefore your point is useless. Perhaps you need to get better at debating?
    I ain't debating with remainers, they always find an excuse go and look for whatever you call a 'legit' news website and look it up in the past articles.
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    (Original post by Jammy Duel)
    Ummm, care to remind us where we heard all these threats before? Oh yes, they were made 3 or 4 months ago and were supposed to have been actioned already
    I don't remember any deadline being put on all the concerns made by Remain.

    I thought that their expectations were contingent on the UK leaving the EU - which hasn't happened yet.

    Depending upon what May decides Brexit is, some of the warnings may not happen. If she decides that Brexit is staying in the single market, we might be ok.
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    (Original post by ckfeister)
    I ain't debating with remainers, they always find an excuse go and look for whatever you call a 'legit' news website and look it up in the past articles.
    Well, debating with you always tends towards you just saying [sic] "watch and see" without providing a counter so steady on your high horse.
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    (Original post by Petrue)
    Well, debating with you always tends towards you just saying [sic] "watch and see" without providing a counter so steady on your high horse.
    Keeping low till it happens, no point arguing on a forum.
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    (Original post by ckfeister)
    Keeping low till it happens, no point arguing on a forum.
    That's actually sound advice.
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    (Original post by alevelstresss)
    we haven't even left the EU yet, don't get cocky
    So where is the exodus of financial services that we were promised to happen immediately after the vote? Pretty sure we're also due an emergency budget to drive taxes up and cut spending in the coming weeks too due to voting to leave. And there is plenty of inward investment that shouldn't have happened. Oh, and all the experts that you remainers were worshiping a few months ago are now being ignored after they've said "yeah, we were ********ting." I mean, what has actually happened of the remainer warnings and threats other than a 7% fall in Sterling that is being recovered? Exactly the same as every other time warnings and threats were made: absolutely nothing.
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    (Original post by Jammy Duel)
    So where is the exodus of financial services that we were promised to happen immediately after the vote? Pretty sure we're also due an emergency budget to drive taxes up and cut spending in the coming weeks too due to voting to leave. And there is plenty of inward investment that shouldn't have happened. Oh, and all the experts that you remainers were worshiping a few months ago are now being ignored after they've said "yeah, we were ********ting." I mean, what has actually happened of the remainer warnings and threats other than a 7% fall in Sterling that is being recovered? Exactly the same as every other time warnings and threats were made: absolutely nothing.
    not here yet, because as I said, we haven't left the EU

    consequences aren't instantaneous buddy, compare now to 2020 and you'll see the changes, and the sterling only recovered because of extreme measures put in place by the Bank of England, its not like it just happened to recover out of sheer randomness
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    (Original post by InnerTemple)
    I don't remember any deadline being put on all the concerns made by Remain.

    I thought that their expectations were contingent on the UK leaving the EU - which hasn't happened yet.

    Depending upon what May decides Brexit is, some of the warnings may not happen. If she decides that Brexit is staying in the single market, we might be ok.
    We were supposed to be having an emergency budget around about now?

    Thousands of City jobs were moving if we voted to leave, which was a threat immediately brushed under the carpet.

    gsk was supposed to be stopping investing in Britain, before they decided to invest £275m

    We kept being warned of recession, now the threat is negligble

    Manufacturing was to be destroyed,but is being boosted instead, and that's before actual brexit cuts costs (if the government is sensible)

    And similarly the service sector was to collapse, despite the vast majority of it being almost completely unaffected by IR, but is also doing nicely

    And Something tells me that in a couple of weeks when Q3 economic data comes out you will really be struggling to find something to shout about other than your "We haven't brexited yet!" despite the threats all being based on the vote alone.
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    (Original post by alevelstresss)
    not here yet, because as I said, we haven't left the EU

    consequences aren't instantaneous buddy, compare now to 2020 and you'll see the changes, and the sterling only recovered because of extreme measures put in place by the Bank of England, its not like it just happened to recover out of sheer randomness
    Convenient that you're forgetting how we were all supposed to be imploding within weeks because the effects were going to be so rapid. All the big banks were supposed to be announcing movement of staff almost immediately to get ahead of the exit itself, who have instead said they have no intentions of moving. We were supposed to be seeing inward investment almost entirely stop because nobody wanted to run the risk, instead it remains strong. For some unknown reason manufacturing was supposed to be obliterated, but the weaker pound has strengthened manufacturing. We were supposed to be getting an emergency budget NOW because it was to be so bad, with taxes going up and spending down (because Osborne was trying to scare people, but would probably be incompetent enough to actually do that), instead there is talk of tax cuts next year to capitalise on the opportunities.

    3 months ago things were supposed to be happening immediately, now they're happening years down the line.

    On the BoE, what they did made no sense, they as good as admitted that they only cut rates because they wanted to maintain their rhetoric, they didn't base it on any solid facts or figures, and did not do it in response to any meaningful data; Carney said on the day to Sky News (paraphrased) "we created this uncertainty just in case there is uncertainty later on," there was no reason it could not be held off a month until there was hard data. Also worth noting that none of the measures are extreme by any standard of the last 9 years.

    I would also suggest you actually look at the forex markets, because the rate cut added about 1 cent to the exchange rate, the assorted strong UK results and weak results in other countries? Sorry, that was three cents. The only thing that will stop the BoE rate being put back up to 0.5% is the fact that it was so recently put down, not that it being lower is all bad.
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    (Original post by Jammy Duel)
    Convenient that you're forgetting how we were all supposed to be imploding within weeks because the effects were going to be so rapid. All the big banks were supposed to be announcing movement of staff almost immediately to get ahead of the exit itself, who have instead said they have no intentions of moving. We were supposed to be seeing inward investment almost entirely stop because nobody wanted to run the risk, instead it remains strong. For some unknown reason manufacturing was supposed to be obliterated, but the weaker pound has strengthened manufacturing. We were supposed to be getting an emergency budget NOW because it was to be so bad, with taxes going up and spending down (because Osborne was trying to scare people, but would probably be incompetent enough to actually do that), instead there is talk of tax cuts next year to capitalise on the opportunities.

    3 months ago things were supposed to be happening immediately, now they're happening years down the line.

    On the BoE, what they did made no sense, they as good as admitted that they only cut rates because they wanted to maintain their rhetoric, they didn't base it on any solid facts or figures, and did not do it in response to any meaningful data; Carney said on the day to Sky News (paraphrased) "we created this uncertainty just in case there is uncertainty later on," there was no reason it could not be held off a month until there was hard data. Also worth noting that none of the measures are extreme by any standard of the last 9 years.

    I would also suggest you actually look at the forex markets, because the rate cut added about 1 cent to the exchange rate, the assorted strong UK results and weak results in other countries? Sorry, that was three cents. The only thing that will stop the BoE rate being put back up to 0.5% is the fact that it was so recently put down, not that it being lower is all bad.
    I never claimed any of these things will happen so quickly, or at all. You have a bad habit of collectivising all remainers as the same person with the same thoughts, this is clearly insightful into your reason for voting Brexit - a misunderstanding of diversity and inherent dislike to anything which opposes your views.
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    (Original post by Jammy Duel)
    gsk was supposed to be stopping investing in Britain, before they decided to invest £275m
    Not to discredit your point (it is perfectly valid) but look to ICAEW's Q3 Business Confidence Monitor report, which puts business confidence into negative territory and a halving of intended investment through 2017.
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    Expect to see a fall in fixed investment over the next few years.
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    (Original post by alevelstresss)
    I never claimed any of these things will happen so quickly, or at all. You have a bad habit of collectivising all remainers as the same person with the same thoughts, this is clearly insightful into your reason for voting Brexit - a misunderstanding of diversity and inherent dislike to anything which opposes your views.
    The assertion was made that all these things will happen immediately, the standard die hard remainer, i.e. the remoaners that are still telling us that the world is about to implode despite everything pointing the other way, is conveniently changing that rhetoric. Given that you aren't even willing to say that you think any of these things will happen even at some point, what do you think is going to happen? Or is this "some non-descript bad thing may happen at some point possibly, but I won't say when or where or how or anything like that, just that something may or may not happen and so it was stupid?"
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    (Original post by Petrue)
    Not to discredit your point (it is valid) but look to ICAEW's Q3 Business Confidence Monitor report, which puts business confidence into negative territory and a halving of intended investment through 2017.
    Name:  ICAEW.png
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    Attachment 578306578308

    Expect to see a fall in fixed investment over the next few years.
    Is the data based on a month ago when the people being surveyed were still asserting their initial position correct, that everything is coming to an end, or much more recent data painting another picture? All attitude based data has to be taken with a pinch of salt for the last few months (including data now). These people are all over the place in what they're saying after all.
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    (Original post by Jammy Duel)
    The assertion was made that all these things will happen immediately, the standard die hard remainer, i.e. the remoaners that are still telling us that the world is about to implode despite everything pointing the other way, is conveniently changing that rhetoric. Given that you aren't even willing to say that you think any of these things will happen even at some point, what do you think is going to happen? Or is this "some non-descript bad thing may happen at some point possibly, but I won't say when or where or how or anything like that, just that something may or may not happen and so it was stupid?"
    Within the UK:

    We'll be a gradual decline in jobs and investment, the communities which were 'left behind' will be even more left behind, as international companies will invest more in London and big cities, support for UKIP and far-right parties will increase because the Brexit that will be delivered won't be what the voters want, racial/hate crimes towards immigrants and Muslims will increase, research and science industries in the UK will lose out, universities will become less attractive for research and international students, the tories will continue to separate society into the upper and lower class by eliminating the middle class, the NHS will lose out massively, Scotland and Ireland may declare independence in referenda.

    Outside of the UK:

    Other countries have been tuning into the Brexit vote situation, support for far-right parties across Europe will surge, they may in some cases topple the government in control or even win their own elections sometime within 10 years, the EU will then collapse, Greece will become a terrible place to live and other countries will stop focusing on international issues like climate change and terrorism, and think internally. Racial/hate crime will similarly surge all across Europe, and this will lead to more sympathy for ISIS and more terrorist attacks.
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    (Original post by Jammy Duel)
    We were supposed to be having an emergency budget around about now?

    Thousands of City jobs were moving if we voted to leave, which was a threat immediately brushed under the carpet.

    gsk was supposed to be stopping investing in Britain, before they decided to invest £275m

    We kept being warned of recession, now the threat is negligble

    Manufacturing was to be destroyed,but is being boosted instead, and that's before actual brexit cuts costs (if the government is sensible)

    And similarly the service sector was to collapse, despite the vast majority of it being almost completely unaffected by IR, but is also doing nicely

    And Something tells me that in a couple of weeks when Q3 economic data comes

    out you will really be struggling to find something to shout about other than your "We haven't brexited yet!" despite the threats all being based on the vote alone.
    As I said, no one promised that these consequences would occur on 24th June - immediately after the results came in. If we want to play your game - where are the controls on immigration? Why are our borders still wide open? Why do we still have EU laws all over the place? Where's the £50m a day promised to the NHS?

    They are all contingent on the UK actually leaving the EU (or, more importantly, the Single Market). As the FT reports, almost all economists still expect the the UK economy to perform worse after Brexit.

    At the moment though, nothing has really changed - and as the days go by, Brexit (whatever that means) seems further and further away.
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    (Original post by alevelstresss)
    Within the UK:

    We'll be a gradual decline in jobs and investment, the communities which were 'left behind' will be even more left behind, as international companies will invest more in London and big cities, support for UKIP and far-right parties will increase because the Brexit that will be delivered won't be what the voters want, racial/hate crimes towards immigrants and Muslims will increase, research and science industries in the UK will lose out, universities will become less attractive for research and international students, the tories will continue to separate society into the upper and lower class by eliminating the middle class, the NHS will lose out massively, Scotland and Ireland may declare independence in referenda.

    Outside of the UK:

    Other countries have been tuning into the Brexit vote situation, support for far-right parties across Europe will surge, they may in some cases topple the government in control or even win their own elections sometime within 10 years, the EU will then collapse, Greece will become a terrible place to live and other countries will stop focusing on international issues like climate change and terrorism, and think internally. Racial/hate crime will similarly surge all across Europe, and this will lead to more sympathy for ISIS and more terrorist attacks.
    Oh, so you're the standard rabid lefty then? That goes ra ra Tories evil arrrgh race to the bottom eurgh NHS greatest thing in the universe and everybody is stupid?
 
 
 
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