The Commons Bar Mk XIII - MHoC Chat Thread

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    (Original post by Rakas21)
    As ever i think you have far too much faith in peoples ability to know what they want.

    The public want to be members of the single market.
    The public want sovereignty in the sense of making our own laws (i.e. withdrawl from the ECJ and probably ECHR).
    The public want free movement abolished.

    What the public want is a big fat cake with tonnes of icing. They are going to have sacrifice at least one of their key desires and as yet i've seen no polling really tell us which one the public are prepared to let go. Your poll for example does not factor in what Leave voters want and politically, they are more important for the government.

    I will say that i'm personally not against the Boris idea of making a continued net contribution in return for single market access. My own desire would be to stay in the single market, withdraw from the ECJ and ECHR and concede on immigration however that's not likely to happen so conceding on money is a fair option i think.
    ECHR has NOTHING to do with the EU.*
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    (Original post by Bornblue)
    ECHR has NOTHING to do with the EU.*
    Whilst technically true, it's grouped for most people with those things they consider an affront for sovereignty. I doubt many people know the difference between the ECHR and ECJ.
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    (Original post by Rakas21)
    Whilst technically true, it's grouped for most people with those things they consider an affront for sovereignty. I doubt many people know the difference between the ECHR and ECJ.
    It's not just technically true, it is true.*
    The ECHR is the court for the council of Europe which has nothing whatsoever to do with *the EU.

    If anyone doesn't know the difference between the court of the European Union and the court of the Council of Europe then they are ignorant.
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    (Original post by Rakas21)
    As ever i think you have far too much faith in peoples ability to know what they want.

    The public want to be members of the single market.
    The public want sovereignty in the sense of making our own laws (i.e. withdrawl from the ECJ and probably ECHR).
    The public want free movement abolished.

    What the public want is a big fat cake with tonnes of icing. They are going to have sacrifice at least one of their key desires and as yet i've seen no polling really tell us which one the public are prepared to let go. Your poll for example does not factor in what Leave voters want and politically, they are more important for the government.

    I will say that i'm personally not against the Boris idea of making a continued net contribution in return for single market access. My own desire would be to stay in the single market, withdraw from the ECJ and ECHR and concede on immigration however that's not likely to happen so conceding on money is a fair option i think.
    Why do you think the bolded is true?
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    (Original post by TheDefiniteArticle)
    Why do you think the bolded is true?
    Other than the fact that the majority of existing Tories voted for Brexit there's a clear opportunity for May to grab those voters. In addition, the fact that Leave got a majority makes their opinions more credible (the messenger is as important as the message).

    In the same way that a government is under no obligation to take bits of Labour and Lib Dem policy even when their vote exceeds the governments, a Leave majority is not obligated to take an aggregate view of the whole.

    *I'm not saying it's right, i'm just talking about the reality. As i said, i have my own view of Brexit.
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    (Original post by Rakas21)
    Other than the fact that the majority of existing Tories voted for Brexit there's a clear opportunity for May to grab those voters. In addition, the fact that Leave got a majority makes their opinions more credible (the messenger is as important as the message).

    In the same way that a government is under no obligation to take bits of Labour and Lib Dem policy even when their vote exceeds the governments, a Leave majority is not obligated to take an aggregate view of the whole.

    *I'm not saying it's right, i'm just talking about the reality. As i said, i have my own view of Brexit.
    The thing is, a Leave majority didn't create seats directly, so no party has any manifesto commitment. I think most of the non-Tory leave voters will literally never vote Tory - most of the UKIP vote in the North, for instance - because the Tories are just poisonous.
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    (Original post by TheDefiniteArticle)
    The thing is, a Leave majority didn't create seats directly, so no party has any manifesto commitment. I think most of the non-Tory leave voters will literally never vote Tory - most of the UKIP vote in the North, for instance - because the Tories are just poisonous.
    While true to some degree it's never been the norm for a hundred seats to change hands based on one issue. What happens is that an opinion tempts enough people to deliver x seats and then you either play on that next time for more or decide it was not worth it.

    Brexit won't deliver another 100 seats but it's entirely plausible that it can tip the balance in 30 of them and increase their vote share in another 30 as something to build on. It's why Osbourne's northern powerhouse idea done properly had the potential to be brilliant eventually.
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    (Original post by Rakas21)
    As ever i think you have far too much faith in peoples ability to know what they want.

    The public want to be members of the single market.
    The public want sovereignty in the sense of making our own laws (i.e. withdrawl from the ECJ and probably ECHR).
    The public want free movement abolished.

    What the public want is a big fat cake with tonnes of icing. They are going to have sacrifice at least one of their key desires and as yet i've seen no polling really tell us which one the public are prepared to let go. Your poll for example does not factor in what Leave voters want and politically, they are more important for the government.

    I will say that i'm personally not against the Boris idea of making a continued net contribution in return for single market access. My own desire would be to stay in the single market, withdraw from the ECJ and ECHR and concede on immigration however that's not likely to happen so conceding on money is a fair option i think.
    Exact opposite for me, to protect rights we need to stay part of ECJ and ECHR, if we stay part of single market but accept the free movement of people, Brexit becomes totally pointless.

    Posted from TSR Mobile
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    (Original post by That Bearded Man)
    Normally I'd agree, but a 17% swing?
    17pc suggests either its been a very long time, something massive has happened, it's fake, it's otherwise dodgy, or a combination of the above
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    Apparently the feds reckon there have been at the very least attempted hacks on the voting system of at least 20 states, and PA may demonstrate the other massive flaw of electronic voting (they have no paper backup)

    Posted from TSR Mobile
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    Steven Woolfe quits UKIP – go figure?
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    If anyone's feeling even remotely like I am right now, crack open a drink and order a pizza - it literally made me feel a million times better!
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    (Original post by Saracen's Fez)
    Steven Woolfe quits UKIP – go figure?
    :rofl:
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    (Original post by Rakas21)
    As ever i think you have far too much faith in peoples ability to know what they want.

    The public want to be members of the single market.
    The public want sovereignty in the sense of making our own laws (i.e. withdrawl from the ECJ and probably ECHR).
    The public want free movement abolished.

    What the public want is a big fat cake with tonnes of icing. They are going to have sacrifice at least one of their key desires and as yet i've seen no polling really tell us which one the public are prepared to let go. Your poll for example does not factor in what Leave voters want and politically, they are more important for the government.

    I will say that i'm personally not against the Boris idea of making a continued net contribution in return for single market access. My own desire would be to stay in the single market, withdraw from the ECJ and ECHR and concede on immigration however that's not likely to happen so conceding on money is a fair option i think.
    (Original post by Bornblue)
    ECHR has NOTHING to do with the EU.*
    That's not entirely true. While they are 2 entirely separate entities, it is no coincidence that all EU members are signed up to the ECHR. It is viewed as a commitment to upholding human rights which the EU regards as important. There are suggestions that leaving the ECHR may be incompatible with EU membership. See here for example:

    http://www.europarl.europa.eu/sides/...00&language=EN

    So Rakas isn't wrong to group together withdrawal of the ECJ and ECHR. Separate they may be, but withdrawal of one lends itself to withdrawal of the other.
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    (Original post by tengentoppa)
    That's not entirely true. While they are 2 entirely separate entities, it is no coincidence that all EU members are signed up to the ECHR. It is viewed as a commitment to upholding human rights which the EU regards as important. There are suggestions that leaving the ECHR may be incompatible with EU membership. See here for example:

    http://www.europarl.europa.eu/sides/...00&language=EN

    So Rakas isn't wrong to group together withdrawal of the ECJ and ECHR. Separate they may be, but withdrawal of one lends itself to withdrawal of the other.
    Not true.
    There was talk of it but there is no legal provision which holds that you need to be a member of the ECHR to be a member of the EU.

    So many people in this country mix up the ECHR and the ECJ and it is very frustrating to see.
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    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-37684923

    (Original post by mobbsy91)
    If anyone's feeling even remotely like I am right now, crack open a drink and order a pizza - it literally made me feel a million times better!
    :yy:
    Crack open a drink
    crack
    Spoiler:
    Show
    sure thing...
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    (Original post by Rakas21)
    While true to some degree it's never been the norm for a hundred seats to change hands based on one issue. What happens is that an opinion tempts enough people to deliver x seats and then you either play on that next time for more or decide it was not worth it.

    Brexit won't deliver another 100 seats but it's entirely plausible that it can tip the balance in 30 of them and increase their vote share in another 30 as something to build on. It's why Osbourne's northern powerhouse idea done properly had the potential to be brilliant eventually.
    Much like the 'big society' no one really fell for the 'Northern Powerhouse' bluff.
    It seemed simply a case of giving more power to labour councils while at the same time reducing their funding so that people would blame Labour, not the Tories.
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    Woolfe quits UKIP.
    This is big.

    This in my opinion will lead to the effective dissolution of UKIP. As Theresa May peddles a hard right socially conservative message I would presume that the vast majority of UKIPers will turn to the tories, turning the conservatives into pretty much a permanent hard right populist party.

    Could see a political realignment.
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    In other news Zac Goldsmith has said that he will resign as a Conservative and stand as an independent if May approves the Heathrow Expansion.
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    (Original post by Bornblue)
    Not true.
    There was talk of it but there is no legal provision which holds that you need to be a member of the ECHR to be a member of the EU.

    So many people in this country mix up the ECHR and the ECJ and it is very frustrating to see.
    Lack of legal provision there may be, but in practice it's difficult to envisage an EU country being allowed to leave the ECHR. Legal opinion is divided on the matter.

    European institutions are not a specialist subject in this country. I daresay 90% of people could not tell you the difference between the European Council, the Council of the EU or the Council of Europe.

    This being an esoteric subject was fine until the absurd decision of having a referendum was made.
 
 
 
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