The Commons Bar Mk XIII - MHoC Chat Thread

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    (Original post by tengentoppa)
    Lack of legal provision there may be, but in practice it's difficult to envisage an EU country being allowed to leave the ECHR. Legal opinion is divided on the matter.

    European institutions are not a specialist subject in this country. I daresay 90% of people could not tell you the difference between the European Council, the Council of the EU or the Council of Europe.

    This being an esoteric subject was fine until the absurd decision of having a referendum was made.

    Because people are ignorant. A ridiculous amount of people though the ECHR was an EU institution.
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    Ah, those bloody PMQ are far too short! If anyone wants to post a follow-up question, I'll be happy to answer, just excuse the delay, please. I'm a fully working man now. :laugh:

    TheDefiniteArticle Cheers, mate! I might hold you to that and the same goes the other way—when you're not preaching the ideology of the left, you can be quite alright as well.

    cBay Not when he once foolishly told a girl about his job on TSR, that's for sure! :awesome:
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    (Original post by Saracen's Fez)
    Steven Woolfe quits UKIP – go figure?
    Hardly surprising given he was reportedly considering it the other week.

    (Original post by Bornblue)
    In other news Zac Goldsmith has said that he will resign as a Conservative and stand as an independent if May approves the Heathrow Expansion.
    Then he should get it over with and resign, does he really think he's so important that May will back down for him?
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    (Original post by Life_peer)
    Ah, those bloody PMQ are far too short! If anyone wants to post a follow-up question, I'll be happy to answer, just excuse the delay, please. I'm a fully working man now. :laugh:

    TheDefiniteArticle Cheers, mate! I might hold you to that and the same goes the other way—when you're not preaching the ideology of the left, you can be quite alright as well.

    cBay Not when he once foolishly told a girl about his job on TSR, that's for sure! :awesome:
    I was thinking the exact same myself, anybody up for seconding an amendment to add a couple of days to it?
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    (Original post by Jammy Duel)
    I was thinking the exact same myself, anybody up for seconding an amendment to add a couple of days to it?
    If you write it I will.
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    I was looking at statewide opinion polling earlier, and I think people seriously underestimate Trump's chances, for a start if we assume that the polling is otherwise correct he only requires about a 2% swing to take Florida, and if it's a clean nationwide swing that will also be enough to win the electoral college, making him the 5th man to win without the popular vote (although nowhere near being the biggest winning loser). The other thing to consider is how big is the shy Trumper, and are his support bases being correctly modeled, there is a decent chance they aren't because the pollsters aren't exact familiar with these new "Alt-right" bases.
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    (Original post by Jammy Duel)
    I was thinking the exact same myself, anybody up for seconding an amendment to add a couple of days to it?
    I'd like to second it. Five days would be okay.
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    (Original post by Jammy Duel)
    Hardly surprising given he was reportedly considering it the other week.



    Then he should get it over with and resign, does he really think he's so important that May will back down for him?
    Wouldn't make any difference in reality. Imagine he would vote with the Conservatives almost all the time anyway.
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    (Original post by Jammy Duel)
    I was looking at statewide opinion polling earlier, and I think people seriously underestimate Trump's chances, for a start if we assume that the polling is otherwise correct he only requires about a 2% swing to take Florida, and if it's a clean nationwide swing that will also be enough to win the electoral college, making him the 5th man to win without the popular vote (although nowhere near being the biggest winning loser). The other thing to consider is how big is the shy Trumper, and are his support bases being correctly modeled, there is a decent chance they aren't because the pollsters aren't exact familiar with these new "Alt-right" bases.
    The key question regarding Trump's support being underestimated or not will be how many 2012 Democrats switch to him. Because polling will weight the swing based on what the Democrats they have their did and are doing now, polling firms need to make sure that they have an adequate sample of 2012 Democrats.

    That being said you make it sound a lot easier to generate the 4% Florida swing he needs (an average of the last 5 polls) than it is. The binary choice in US elections means that most states always see a fairly close result.

    He definitely still has a shot though i think once people have had enough of the headlines. His polling will probably recover a little.
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    (Original post by Rakas21)
    The key question regarding Trump's support being underestimated or not will be how many 2012 Democrats switch to him. Because polling will weight the swing based on what the Democrats they have their did and are doing now, polling firms need to make sure that they have an adequate sample of 2012 Democrats.

    That being said you make it sound a lot easier to generate the 4% Florida swing he needs (an average of the last 5 polls) than it is. The binary choice in US elections means that most states always see a fairly close result.

    He definitely still has a shot though i think once people have had enough of the headlines. His polling will probably recover a little.
    And if the wikileaks become non-trivial (then again, pretty **** stuff has already come out), while most of the media will still ignore it even if they could prove that Clinton killed every firstborn people are starting to get as fed up of MSM as mainstream politics. There was some polling I saw earlier (well, reporting on the polling) that showed publicans for Clinton and Dems for Trump, IIRC Dems for Trump was slightly larger. There was a beeb piece that argued that perhaps the 15% who are still to make up their mind are waiting for a reason to back Clinton rather than one not to back Trump, and they could go Trump. The other thing that polling may understate is all the new voters, something you cannot pretend is going to be insignificant.

    And it's a 2% swing, not 4%, in the 2 way race, in the 4 way that comes down a little.
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    (Original post by Rakas21)
    The key question regarding Trump's support being underestimated or not will be how many 2012 Democrats switch to him. Because polling will weight the swing based on what the Democrats they have their did and are doing now, polling firms need to make sure that they have an adequate sample of 2012 Democrats.

    That being said you make it sound a lot easier to generate the 4% Florida swing he needs (an average of the last 5 polls) than it is. The binary choice in US elections means that most states always see a fairly close result.

    He definitely still has a shot though i think once people have had enough of the headlines. His polling will probably recover a little.
    We perhaps also have to consider he should do particularly well in this week's debate. We may well see the liberal media crying about it being 2v1, and the topics help trump given there is in there immigration and fitness to be president. Economy could also be strong for him if he stays on topic and talks about how he's giving a tax cut to everybody and the tax foundations predictions on the impact (1% per year higher growth, 10% higher average post tax income 22% after a decade, an extra 0.5% or so p/a wage growth and 29% higher investment in 10 years), however this could go badly on the basis of the income increase being very top heavy and the amount it costs, also weakening the debt section. He could stop foreign hot spots going to Clinton simply by admitting his plan is incredibly similar to hers, which most people don't seem to realise, and the supreme court could go either way.

    It should be a win for trump, especially with his improving debate performance. Further, if wikileaks really do have proper dirt it should be coming out before the debate too. It could be the point the polls turn around, although I hope otherwise because then it would make me win less when I get round to putting so!e cash on Trump

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    (Original post by Jammy Duel)
    We perhaps also have to consider he should do particularly well in this week's debate. We may well see the liberal media crying about it being 2v1, and the topics help trump given there is in there immigration and fitness to be president. Economy could also be strong for him if he stays on topic and talks about how he's giving a tax cut to everybody and the tax foundations predictions on the impact (1% per year higher growth, 10% higher average post tax income 22% after a decade, an extra 0.5% or so p/a wage growth and 29% higher investment in 10 years), however this could go badly on the basis of the income increase being very top heavy and the amount it costs, also weakening the debt section. He could stop foreign hot spots going to Clinton simply by admitting his plan is incredibly similar to hers, which most people don't seem to realise, and the supreme court could go either way.

    It should be a win for trump, especially with his improving debate performance. Further, if wikileaks really do have proper dirt it should be coming out before the debate too. It could be the point the polls turn around, although I hope otherwise because then it would make me win less when I get round to putting so!e cash on Trump

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    The tax foundation also predicted that Trumps tax plans would cost the econom 2.6-3.9 trillion over a decade.

    It's kind of hard for Trump to pull off his anti establishment look if he's seen giving hue tax cuts to his corporate, Wall Street friends.
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    Thank you private enterprise!

    "An MP is demanding the health secretary investigates how a private firm running dozens of GP surgeries and NHS walk-in centres is handling its finances.

    Integral Medical Holdings (IMH), which controls 50 NHS sites, swapped its debts for*loan notesto its parent company, which is based in The Bahamas.

    It essentially means taxpayers' money given to IMH ends up paying off interest of 20%."

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    (Original post by Jammy Duel)
    I was thinking the exact same myself, anybody up for seconding an amendment to add a couple of days to it?
    I'll second it.
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    (Original post by Bornblue)
    The tax foundation also predicted that Trumps tax plans would cost the econom 2.6-3.9 trillion over a decade.

    It's kind of hard for Trump to pull off his anti establishment look if he's seen giving hue tax cuts to his corporate, Wall Street friends.
    He's giving a tax cut to all Americans, that what he needs to push, vs Clinton barely touching taxes. That he is taking millions of Americans out of federal income tax. That wage growth would be stronger and investment in businesses greater. The massive boost in growth, keep pushing the line on Oba and Clinton having near zero growth. Push the millions of extra jobs created.

    This is the debate Trump goes on the policy offensive, and he gets his 1pc swing

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    (Original post by Rakas21)
    The key question regarding Trump's support being underestimated or not will be how many 2012 Democrats switch to him. Because polling will weight the swing based on what the Democrats they have their did and are doing now, polling firms need to make sure that they have an adequate sample of 2012 Democrats.

    That being said you make it sound a lot easier to generate the 4% Florida swing he needs (an average of the last 5 polls) than it is. The binary choice in US elections means that most states always see a fairly close result.

    He definitely still has a shot though i think once people have had enough of the headlines. His polling will probably recover a little.
    Re crossover, Rasmussen gives 15% of Democrats voting trump and 10% Republicans backing Clinton, although we have no idea yet whether this is one of their good or bad cycles.

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    My last visit to the bar. Having a cup of tea. I will want something stronger if Trump is elected the US President- will be in Haarlem on the day ( the Netherlands not New York). Maybe UKIP will have imploded by then.

    The RL government have put off a decision on Heathrow for another year- they should just abandon plans and look to ration flights in a way that is transparent and considers the alternatives, perhaps by reforming APD. No need to have all New York flights all from Heathrow, or flights to Greek holiday islands from Gatwick- Stansted has space and ex-air force runways could be put into civilian use.

    On a separate note, good luck to Leicester and Spurs tonight. And to all of you in your studies.
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    You know people are idiots and it's a slow news day when a rise to 1% inflation is treated as a big deal.

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    Westminster voting intention:
    CON: 47% (+7)
    LAB: 29% (-5)
    LDEM: 7% (+1)
    UKIP: 6% (-3)
    GRN: 4% (-1)
    (via Ipsos Mori / 14 - 17 Oct)

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    https://www.rt.com/uk/363330-army-twitter-black-face/

    Now even the British Army are ****ing cucks. Britain is finished.
 
 
 
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