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VOTE: MHoC By-election (July 2014) Watch

  • View Poll Results: Who do you wish to elect as an MP in the TSR Model House of Commons?
    PicardianSocialist (sponsored by TSR Libertarian Party)
    9
    11.11%
    tehFrance (sponsored by TSR Conservative Party)
    22
    27.16%
    St. Brynjar (sponsored by TSR Green, TSR Socialist, and TSR Labour parties)
    32
    39.51%
    Ruitker (sponsored by TSR UKIP)
    5
    6.17%
    MacDaddi (sponsored by TSR Liberal Party)
    13
    16.05%
    Spoilt Ballot
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    (Original post by O133)
    They're in a coalition with the Tories, that doesn't make them centre-left!Still assuming the Libers are right, I make it left 32, right 36 even excluding the Liberals. Only when you eliminate the Libertarian votes as well do the left have a majority.Simulating this under AV:Round 1Gov't 32Tory 22Liberal 13Liber 9UKIP 5Round 2 - UKIP votes transfer to ToryGov't 32Tory 27Liberal 13Liber 9Round 3 - Liber votes transfer to Tory (this is the least likely transfer of the lot, in reality they may be split, and this would likely decide the outcome)Tory 36Gov't 32Liberal 13Round 4 - Liberal votes transfer to ToryTory 49Gov't 32Outcome: tehFrance winsObviously not the outcome I would have liked but certainly not unlikely.So in actual fact not the greatest of performances from a government that had 50% of the vote in the GE.
    Wait, so are the Libertarians or Liberals in a coalition with the tories?
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    Round 2 - UKIP votes transfer to Tory

    This would mean that the UKIP vote transfers to tehFrance, but nothing against the Frenchman, but I am sure most of UKIP would rather transfer to someone who lives and knows Britain!
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    (Original post by adam9317)
    Round 2 - UKIP votes transfer to ToryThis would mean that the UKIP vote transfers to tehFrance, but nothing against the Frenchman, but I am sure most of UKIP would rather transfer to someone who lives and knows Britain!
    Here here! I would rather spoil the ballot or not vote at all than vote for tehFrance!
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    (Original post by Ruitker)
    Here here! I would rather spoil the ballot or not vote at all than vote for tehFrance!
    Here Here!
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    (Original post by O133)
    They're in a coalition with the Tories, that doesn't make them centre-left!

    Outcome: tehFrance wins

    Obviously not the outcome I would have liked but certainly not unlikely.

    So in actual fact not the greatest of performances from a government that had 50% of the vote in the GE.
    The assumption is still that everyone votes in all rounds (which won't happen), but even if you do it in one vote, and decide to count in the way you did for your analogy, there will be a debate over where parties lie. Also, I was being generous assuming all Libers were right-wing. The Liberals aren't exactly dead centre either. The majority of them would swing to the left. The election was TSR wide too. Most students are left wing and most indeed most on TSR are left wing. A few more outsiders voting would give an even larger advantage to the left. Say 20 outsiders voted, using the TSR percentages form threads in D&CA, that 13 to the left and 7 to the right. If the vote was done using the elimination system, tehFrance would have lost by even more votes. By the time tactical voting is taken into account with Ruitker pointing out UKIP would not vote for TehFrance, the loss only widens.
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    (Original post by O133)
    They're in a coalition with the Tories, that doesn't make them centre-left!

    Still assuming the Libers are right, I make it left 32, right 36 even excluding the Liberals. Only when you eliminate the Libertarian votes as well do the left have a majority.

    Simulating this under AV:

    Round 1
    Gov't 32
    Tory 22
    Liberal 13
    Liber 9
    UKIP 5

    Round 2 - UKIP votes transfer to Tory
    Gov't 32
    Tory 27
    Liberal 13
    Liber 9

    Round 3 - Liber votes transfer to Tory (this is the least likely transfer of the lot, in reality they may be split, and this would likely decide the outcome)
    Tory 36
    Gov't 32
    Liberal 13

    Round 4 - Liberal votes transfer to Tory
    Tory 49
    Gov't 32

    Outcome: tehFrance wins

    Obviously not the outcome I would have liked but certainly not unlikely.

    So in actual fact not the greatest of performances from a government that had 50% of the vote in the GE.
    The right (if you include Libs and Libers) tends to do much better in by-elections here largely because the general election gets the mass PM and theirs currently a relatively pro-Labour vote. For example we get 16-19% in 4 of the last 5 generals but no lower than 24% in the by-elections.
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    (Original post by The Politisphere)
    Anyone serious about their future would not rely upon a pension. Invest your money wisely, enjoy the rewards throughout your life which will continue to reward after retirement. The naughties was the decade of pensioners selling of second properties for big paydays in the millions. However, for the record, my comment was a reference to what TehFrance said in another thread.
    I was attempting some satire And of course the Greens are well aware of that. A guaranteed rate of return, near certain chance of profit and higher than most banks will ever give you- domestic renewables. Bet you scoff at that 'investment' though haha
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    (Original post by Ruitker)
    Wait, so are the Libertarians or Liberals in a coalition with the tories?
    The Liberals, they're at their leftest a centrist party, and more realistically slightly centre right, just like their RL equivalent.
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    (Original post by PhysicsKid)
    I was attempting some satire And of course the Greens are well aware of that. A guaranteed rate of return, near certain chance of profit and higher than most banks will ever give you- domestic renewables. Bet you scoff at that 'investment' though haha
    I'm sorry, it's been a long day so that went right over my head. Who wouldn't scoff it? You get rich and it's tax deductible too if run through Plc based in Bermuda. Win! Win!
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    (Original post by The Politisphere)
    The assumption is still that everyone votes in all rounds (which won't happen), but even if you do it in one vote, and decide to count in the way you did for your analogy, there will be a debate over where parties lie. Also, I was being generous assuming all Libers were right-wing. The Liberals aren't exactly dead centre either. The majority of them would swing to the left. The election was TSR wide too. Most students are left wing and most indeed most on TSR are left wing. A few more outsiders voting would give an even larger advantage to the left. Say 20 outsiders voted, using the TSR percentages form threads in D&CA, that 13 to the left and 7 to the right. If the vote was done using the elimination system, tehFrance would have lost by even more votes. By the time tactical voting is taken into account with Ruitker pointing out UKIP would not vote for TehFrance, the loss only widens.
    I would have to agree with Politisphere here!
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      (Original post by Ruitker)
      Here here! I would rather spoil the ballot or not vote at all than vote for tehFrance!
      On what grounds? tehFrance has proven himself a decent MP in the past
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      Well done, St Brynjar! Good to have you on the team as a colleague.

      On a slightly different note, I don't particularly agree with this 'round/stage voting' malarky. Surely it is simpler and easier just to vote once, and the candidate with the most votes gets elected! At least, the latter way, the candidate with the most 'raw' votes wins.
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      I think the double ballot system is more workable than a normal elimination system, and worth considering further. Top two candidates go through to the second vote. It's how they do it in France, so it would certainly be strange if tehFrance had been elected in a second ballot.

      EDIT: It's also how we elect the Speaker, so it's not a brand-new system we would be introducing in any case.
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      (Original post by O133)
      The Liberals, they're at their leftest a centrist party, and more realistically slightly centre right, just like their RL equivalent.
      True we are Moseley centralist but we do have a few social democrats.
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      (Original post by Will95206)
      True we are Moseley centralist but we do have a few social democrats.
      Who I'm sure are over the moon that you're in coalition with the Tories.
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      Delighted with the result, thanks to everyone that voted for me. Whilst I appreciate this has more to do with who I was supported by as opposed to policy (especially considering the stature of the other candidates), I'm pleased nonetheless, especially since this is indicative of a unified government. Commiserations to the other who ran, all of whom will win future MP elections without doubt.

      I look forward to serving you all as an independent MP
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      (Original post by O133)
      Who I'm sure are over the moon that you're in coalition with the Tories.
      Well they are a pragmatic bunch but previous the left have been pretty unaccepting and childish to them which has left them with a distaste in their mouth.
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        (Original post by adam9317)
        I would have to agree with Politisphere here!
        It's worth bearing in mind that the left seems to get behind the one candidate in the by-elections - this and the summer 2012 by-elections being examples of this which allows the parties which are in government in this case to increase their prospects, particularly if the parties which are on the right do split up into individual candidacies.

        The government and opposition were very close apart meaning there was a 12 vote constituency where the election genuinely was up for grabs. Which is why O133 had half a point (without needing to go into the psephology of divying up the remaining votes)

        There's nothing wrong with the voting system.
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        (Original post by Will95206)
        Well they are a pragmatic bunch but previous the left have been pretty unaccepting and childish to them which has left them with a distaste in their mouth.
        Care to give an example? Though I think it is slightly ludicrous that a party in coalition with the Conservatives claims to have an appeal to the centre-left. The fact that the three members of your leadership team include you, a pseudo-Tory, MacDaddi- a former Libertarian, and Birchington- an Orange Booker. I don't see anyone remotely centre-left, and it would be more credible to just make that point clear. Were you a centre-left party, you'd appeal to me.


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          (Original post by O133)
          I think the double ballot system is more workable than a normal elimination system, and worth considering further. Top two candidates go through to the second vote. It's how they do it in France, so it would certainly be strange if tehFrance had been elected in a second ballot.

          EDIT: It's also how we elect the Speaker, so it's not a brand-new system we would be introducing in any case.
          The thing with that is that we don't have a set number of seats which are up for grabs in a by-election. We have one seat this time, but we may have 2 or even three in a future time, do you in that case allow the top four canidates to go through?
         
         
         
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