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Public finances surplus is achieved! watch

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    (Original post by Hydeman)
    Sorry, but nobody needs to be punished for sins against your god.
    I don't intend to. I am only a messenger. Only God can judge you.
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    (Original post by illegaltobepoor)
    I don't intend to. I am only a messenger. Only God can judge you.
    Alongside his pink unicorn.
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    (Original post by i<3milkshake)
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-34014803

    I can't help but think that this election will forever be remebered as the one that made Labour relevant only to historians. If Corbyn gets elected it will be the election that makes Labour a laughing stock before relegating them to a party of protest rather than genuine contenders.
    I'm not sure what this July public surplus has got to do with the election and Labour...?

    Monthly deficits and surpluses fluctuate depending on when tax receipts come
    in during the year, in July for instance, here are the annual surpluses:

    http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/datasets-a...&table-id=PSA1

    Public Sector Net Borrowing excluding public sector banks, £m
    (note: presented as 'net surplus' so deficits are indicated with minus sign)

    1993 -2975
    1994 -2461
    1995 -1672
    1996 -4247
    1997 -1903
    1998 3650
    1999 3849
    2000 1713
    2001 3710
    2002 2366
    2003 999
    2004 2540
    2005 2284
    2006 2447
    2007 6027
    2008 5523
    2009 -5579
    2010 -3856
    2011 1202
    2012 1313
    2013 -145
    2014 -100
    2015 1290

    So what you see is we were running deficits in July in the 1990s under the Conservatives then while Labour were in power apart from 2009 there were surpluses every year in July, and since the Coalition/Conservatives have been in power it has been mixed.
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    And now what we see from the monthly figures is the biggest deficit since 2012...

    http://www.theguardian.com/business/...n-tax-receipts

    So all the hubris about the government's success in tackling the deficit better be on ice for now.

    I suggest returning to the argument "with these bad figures it's even more important that we keep on sticking to the plan"
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    (Original post by MagicNMedicine)
    And now what we see from the monthly figures is the biggest deficit since 2012...

    http://www.theguardian.com/business/...n-tax-receipts

    So all the hubris about the government's success in tackling the deficit better be on ice for now.

    I suggest returning to the argument "with these bad figures it's even more important that we keep on sticking to the plan"
    To be fair, the over-reaction in the previous month was mainly in the Tory press, there never was any question that future months would continue to contain big deficits.

    I think what must be troubling to the government though is that both corporate and self-assessment receipts remain sluggish and by this stage, emerging from a recession, you really would expect both to be moving ahead strongly.

    It all points to the fallout from the 2008 global financial crash still having a severe dragging effect, only partly masked by vast amounts of QE. Now that QE has effectively ended, the inflated stock markets where much of the money ended up are also heading south and today there are many pundits expecting a big market crash - October being a popular time for those. All this against a prolonged major drop in oil prices, which in the past would have caused a surge in demand.

    The major governments of the West and of China are basically not doing enough of the right things to end the vicious cycle. There needs to be a fundamental rebalancing with the massive savings in China and the huge surpluses in some countries (notably Germany and some OPEC members) recycled, there needs to be a new Bretton Woods that takes China into the fold and a new Marshall Plan for a global green economy and a post-fossil fuel world.

    Don't expect any leadership on these points from the miserable Tory flakes running our own show, they are still involved in some kind of 1930s or 50s fantasy with their own role as casting characters out of Brideshead Revisited and a desperate desire to above all please Rupert Murdoch as their only policy goal.
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    (Original post by Fullofsurprises)

    The major governments of the West and of China are basically not doing enough of the right things to end the vicious cycle. There needs to be a fundamental rebalancing with the massive savings in China and the huge surpluses in some countries (notably Germany and some OPEC members) recycled, there needs to be a new Bretton Woods that takes China into the fold and a new Marshall Plan for a global green economy and a post-fossil fuel world.

    Don't expect any leadership on these points from the miserable Tory flakes running our own show, they are still involved in some kind of 1930s or 50s fantasy with their own role as casting characters out of Brideshead Revisited and a desperate desire to above all please Rupert Murdoch as their only policy goal.
    I agree, and most likely the reaction to any recession and spike up of deficit will be announcement of a new wave of in-year cuts on top of existing spending reductions, and reductions to welfare with more lectures about how it's even more important that we take the tough decisions, warnings about how Labour would mess things up even more, disclaimers that this is down to global events and not the fault of the government etc.

    The problem looming for the government is that that kind of response to a recession would mean the recession took a number of years to work its way through, fine when you're going from 2010 to 2013 and blaming it on Labour but if a large chunk of this Parliament is the same it will be harder to pin it on everyone else. Plus the fact Middle England will start getting restless when it finds that some of the cuts are now hitting things that they expect/like, not just 'scroungers' suffering, and the lobby for tax cuts will start asking when is the Tory government going to offer tax cuts to get our economy going.

    The government could face some difficult times in the 2017 EU referendum and 2020 general election, if the economy has a downturn as there may be an angry electorate looking to get its anger out.
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    As M pointed out the monthly deficit rose however we may have a bigger problem right now which is that to be on track for our April 2019 surplus, we need to cut the deficit by ~£20bn. So far the cumulative change is only £4.4bn.

    Will be interesting to see how the rest of the year pans out.
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    (Original post by i<3milkshake)
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-34014803

    I can't help but think that this election will forever be remembered as the one that made Labour relevant only to historians. If Corbyn gets elected it will be the election that makes Labour a laughing stock before relegating them to a party of protest rather than genuine contenders.
    I feel compelled to point out, those of us with basic economic understanding know spending is an economic stimulus. Debt is bad. As such, most economists and nations subscribe to the view defect spending is ok, even approved, as long as debt growth is lower than GDP growth.

    You can throw a tantrum about Labour spending all you want, but Major never ran a surplus. Thatcher ran a surplus for only 1 quarter - less than Blair. The most successful economies in the world, Japan, China and the US? Run on deficits, but aim for GDP to outgrow debt therefore lowering it.
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    (Original post by Murphy12)
    I feel compelled to point out, those of us with basic economic understanding know spending is an economic stimulus. Debt is bad. As such, most economists and nations subscribe to the view defect spending is ok, even approved, as long as debt growth is lower than GDP growth.

    You can throw a tantrum about Labour spending all you want, but Major never ran a surplus. Thatcher ran a surplus for only 1 quarter - less than Blair. The most successful economies in the world, Japan, China and the US? Run on deficits, but aim for GDP to outgrow debt therefore lowering it.
    Old thread, but yes, you're right. Government debt is also the bedrock of pension funds, numerous investment schemes and government-financed capital programmes.

    Osborne and Cameron (and Boris Johnson, who shares their radical right wing extremist ideology) seem to be picturing Britain as a sort of offshore Singapore, with a bloated finance sector in the City continuing (in their fantasy) to make bumper profits, zero tax rates for the rich, zero or no social protection for the poor and everything privately run. Government by dictatorship and a small, obedient parliament who meet to applaud the Dear Leader.
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    (Original post by Fullofsurprises)
    Old thread, but yes, you're right. Government debt is also the bedrock of pension funds, numerous investment schemes and government-financed capital programmes.

    Osborne and Cameron (and Boris Johnson, who shares their radical right wing extremist ideology) seem to be picturing Britain as a sort of offshore Singapore, with a bloated finance sector in the City continuing (in their fantasy) to make bumper profits, zero tax rates for the rich, zero or no social protection for the poor and everything privately run. Government by dictatorship and a small, obedient parliament who meet to applaud the Dear Leader.
    I quite agree. Though I wouldn't label them a dictatorship, people will start to label you as a tin-foil wearing conspiracy theorist. Oligarchy is better, and harder to refute.
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    (Original post by Murphy12)
    I quite agree. Though I wouldn't label them a dictatorship, people will start to label you as a tin-foil wearing conspiracy theorist. Oligarchy is better, and harder to refute.
    It's hard not to think it terms of Pinochet-style fascistic government when (as today for example) government ministers tell bare faced lies about the constitutional arrangements and the role of a major part of the Parliamentary system in them. It appears that respect for the law and the processes of government don't mean much to our new leaders.
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    (Original post by Fullofsurprises)
    Old thread, but yes, you're right. Government debt is also the bedrock of pension funds, numerous investment schemes and government-financed capital programmes.

    Osborne and Cameron (and Boris Johnson, who shares their radical right wing extremist ideology) seem to be picturing Britain as a sort of offshore Singapore, with a bloated finance sector in the City continuing (in their fantasy) to make bumper profits, zero tax rates for the rich, zero or no social protection for the poor and everything privately run. Government by dictatorship and a small, obedient parliament who meet to applaud the Dear Leader.
    Interesting idea. Your vision for the Tories is quite a worrying one (and I can see where you are coming from for some points you make). But how do you picture Labour Britain?

    How would you describe the vision of Corbyn and McDonnell?
    You say Osbourne, Cameron and Boris Johnson have an extremist ideology;
    What about Corbyn and McDonnell? Are they not the hard left?
    It could be argued that they are the ones with the "extremist ideology". I think the trio you mention above are much more palatable to the center ground than the Labour Marxists. The above got a parliamentary majority, something Labour can't even dream of.

    I personally think they are on a mission to destroy the UK with their public spending and immigration policy. This is why they don't want Trident-they know they will destroy the country before it gets attacked anyway.

    2) Speaking of bloating do you think will we see the benefits bill bloat under Labour?
    I personally think so.

    3) If the Tories want low taxes, don't Labour want to tax everyone into oblivion?

    I personally think that he only people not paying huge amounts in taxes will be the benefit claimants who will become the new Royal Family the amount Labour want to give to them.
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    (Original post by scrotgrot)
    What are they going to do with this surplus? We pay it, we expect it to be spent on us.
    Well, currently £46 billion or 9% (NINE Percent!) of all annual tax revenue is spent on maintaining the public debt. Idealy, I'd like to see all that gone so we can actually use that 46 bil on somthing worthwhile.
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    (Original post by Rakas21)
    As M pointed out the monthly deficit rose however we may have a bigger problem right now which is that to be on track for our April 2019 surplus, we need to cut the deficit by ~£20bn. So far the cumulative change is only £4.4bn.

    Will be interesting to see how the rest of the year pans out.
    The left will tell you that the best way to reduce a deficit is to spend. Spend even more. They will never mention the huge amount that will be spent on servicing the debt.
    Also, the left will claim that spending is the way to get you out of a recession but then proceed to actually raise benefits-the wrong type of spending to see the deficit fall. They don't want spending on infrastructure but benefits also.

    That is why I can't take the Bornblues, the Murph12's, the illegaltobepoor's, the United1892, the others seriously-they deep down are just people who want higher benefits. They are people who try and talk about economics like they are some great intellectuals. In reality they are people who are just out of a job and want to get their hands on the money that others have earned. They claim they have good knowledge of the economy but the general public, the working public, disagree.

    It never gets old how these kind like to say things like "anyone with any economic understanding" wants higher spending when actually that is not the case at all. Amongst the dole queue that may be the consensus, I don't know I never hang around with them all day, but amongst working people (the more educated and hard working kind) it certainly is not.

    I'm not taking advice from a bunch of dole claimants about macroeconomics when I have a good job in finance. I am much better educated than them on the matter so when the aforementioned posters on here (who all in the past have used the "anyone with economic understanding" line with me) try to give their view I laugh and am relieved that TSR evidently doesn't represent the mass population or House of Commons.
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    (Original post by Pegasus2)
    Well, currently £46 billion or 9% (NINE Percent!) of all annual tax revenue is spent on maintaining the public debt. Idealy, I'd like to see all that gone so we can actually use that 46 bil on somthing worthwhile.
    The left on here can only see as far as their benefit cheques so are happier with a higher deficit; after all, those who are lazy never will have to pay it back. People who pay taxes will have to pay it back.
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    (Original post by Pegasus2)
    Well, currently £46 billion or 9% (NINE Percent!) of all annual tax revenue is spent on maintaining the public debt. Idealy, I'd like to see all that gone so we can actually use that 46 bil on somthing worthwhile.
    You want it ALL gone? Could you point me to one country that has ever paid off its national debt in the 400 year history of the concept?

    As for the surplus: it is an accounting fact that any government surplus is private debt. Osborne is indebting us - student loans, mortgages, tax - so that the state can be in surplus.

    Do you understand political economy or not? Tell me again why the state finances are like a household :rolleyes :
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    (Original post by scrotgrot)
    You want it ALL gone? Could you point me to one country that has ever paid off its national debt in the 400 year history of the concept?

    As for the surplus: it is an accounting fact that any government surplus is private debt. Osborne is indebting us - student loans, mortgages, tax - so that the state can be in surplus.

    Do you understand political economy or not? Tell me again why the state finances are like a household :rolleyes :
    if you want to go to uni, YOU pay the cost. Not the taxpayer.

    So typical of the left on here-"do you understand the economy"? What do you know, the post I made earlier just two above this (154) is right for thinly veiled greed being dressed up as being intelligent.

    It isn't Osbourne indebting us; that is the wrong way to say it. Say it the right way;
    "I want other people to pay for my life decisions, whether that be having kids and getting benefits and tax credits or getting degrees that may well not lead to a job. So unfair I get the debt-society (so other taxpayers) should get it instead".

    EDIT; Pegasus2 it is so funny how he accuses you of not knowing how the economy works like he is some genius. All the while coming out with comedy gold like the above that is really just him wanting to get his grubby hands on the money other people have earned, all because the left don't want to pay for their decisions-everyone else should though.
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    (Original post by i<3milkshake)
    if you want to go to uni, YOU pay the cost. Not the taxpayer.

    So typical of the left on here-"do you understand the economy"? What do you know, the post I made earlier just two above this (154) is right for thinly veiled greed being dressed up as being intelligent.

    It isn't Osbourne indebting us; that is the wrong way to say it. Say it the right way;
    "I want other people to pay for my life decisions, whether that be having kids and getting benefits and tax credits or getting degrees that may well not lead to a job. So unfair I get the debt-society (so other taxpayers) should get it instead".

    EDIT; Pegasus2 it is so funny how he accuses you of not knowing how the economy works like he is some genius. All the while coming out with comedy gold like the above that is really just him wanting to get his grubby hands on the money other people have earned, all because the left don't want to pay for their decisions-everyone else should though.
    :blah:
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    (Original post by scrotgrot)
    :blah:
    No reply? Didn't think so. Scrotgrot logic;
    http://www.bruceonpolitics.com/wp-co...d-fish-650.jpg
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    (Original post by i<3milkshake)
    No reply? Didn't think so. Scrotgrot logic;
    http://www.bruceonpolitics.com/wp-co...d-fish-650.jpg


    Be a man. Tag the other lefties in the thread and ask them what their job is and whether they are claiming any benefits.
 
 
 
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