Warnings over Brexit from the big powers

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    (Original post by Jammy Duel)
    Oh, so you're the standard rabid lefty then? That goes ra ra Tories evil arrrgh race to the bottom eurgh NHS greatest thing in the universe and everybody is stupid?
    Classic rhetoric from the right: "OH SO YOU MEAN *insert blatantly wrong/oversimplified interpretation of what I actually said*"

    Grow up, I didn't say any of those things

    Please dismiss them in turn with an explanation rather than being a little child
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    (Original post by Jammy Duel)
    Is the data based on a month ago when the people being surveyed were still asserting their initial position correct, that everything is coming to an end, or much more recent data painting another picture? All attitude based data has to be taken with a pinch of salt for the last few months (including data now). These people are all over the place in what they're saying after all.
    As far as I can tell it's a weighted aggregate of business confidence during the entirety of Q3. It will have factored in both the fall and recovery of the FTSE 100, 250 and 350, as well as the BoE's monetary expansion and the sterling's recent appreciation. But I can't for the life of me find more specific dates (short of requesting the entire data set) to compare with real world events.

    "The report is based on a continuous research programme of approximately 4,000 telephone interviews each year with ICAEW members working in industry and commerce" ... "The Business Confidence Index is calculated from the responses to the following: ‘Overall, how would you describe your confidence in the economic prospects facing your business over the next 12 months, compared to the previous 12 months?’"

    It'll be interesting to see what the ONS' Q3 balance of payment report says about the impact of the cheaper pound. Bring on Q4!
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    What the debate amounts to is short term signals whilst we are still in the EU compared to what will likely happen as or when we actually pull out, especially of the single market.

    So far, we've seen responses to the cheapening of the pound, the lowering of interest rates and the further flooding of the elite parts of the economy with cheap cash from the Bank. Unsurprisingly, those things put together have resulted in spiking equity prices, short term confidence boosts and healthy-sounding figures.

    Longer term, the picture is much worse. Inflation will dig in, if the £ continues to stay weak or weakens further, it will accelerate. The responsiveness of exporters to a cheap £ is in doubt, because we simply don't make enough in-demand goods and services to sell a great deal more of them at any price and also because we are near full-employment, so we can't easily produce more. (Without a further surge in inward migration, at any rate, which is deprecated apparently.) In addition, loss of the Single Market will create a black hole in the trading accounts and tax receipts will plunge, both appear likely and are currently the cause of much alarm in government.

    An announcement that we are leaving the SM will trigger all of the above and more. Announcing that we have a trade deal with Australia will cut no ice.
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    (Original post by Jammy Duel)
    We were supposed to be having an emergency budget around about now?

    Thousands of City jobs were moving if we voted to leave, which was a threat immediately brushed under the carpet.

    gsk was supposed to be stopping investing in Britain, before they decided to invest £275m

    We kept being warned of recession, now the threat is negligble

    Manufacturing was to be destroyed,but is being boosted instead, and that's before actual brexit cuts costs (if the government is sensible)

    And similarly the service sector was to collapse, despite the vast majority of it being almost completely unaffected by IR, but is also doing nicely

    And Something tells me that in a couple of weeks when Q3 economic data comes out you will really be struggling to find something to shout about other than your "We haven't brexited yet!" despite the threats all being based on the vote alone.
    (Original post by Fullofsurprises)
    What the debate amounts to is short term signals whilst we are still in the EU compared to what will likely happen as or when we actually pull out, especially of the single market.

    So far, we've seen responses to the cheapening of the pound, the lowering of interest rates and the further flooding of the elite parts of the economy with cheap cash from the Bank. Unsurprisingly, those things put together have resulted in spiking equity prices, short term confidence boosts and healthy-sounding figures.

    Longer term, the picture is much worse. Inflation will dig in, if the £ continues to stay weak or weakens further, it will accelerate. The responsiveness of exporters to a cheap £ is in doubt, because we simply don't make enough in-demand goods and services to sell a great deal more of them at any price and also because we are near full-employment, so we can't easily produce more. (Without a further surge in inward migration, at any rate, which is deprecated apparently.) In addition, loss of the Single Market will create a black hole in the trading accounts and tax receipts will plunge, both appear likely and are currently the cause of much alarm in government.

    An announcement that we are leaving the SM will trigger all of the above and more. Announcing that we have a trade deal with Australia will cut no ice.
    At the moment this is all about sentiment. Basically nothing has happened yet. We dodged a bullet in the immediate aftermath of the vote. There was no announcement from anyone than might have set off a chain reaction of negativity. Neither side could have known that there was not at least one major business going to announce that it was off as a result of Brexit or even one going to use Brexit as an excuse for a long planned move elsewhere. If that had happened it is likely there would have been a rush to the door and a need for an emergency budget.

    That hasn't happened. We are now enjoying a mini boom from the activity that was suppressed by the uncertainty of the Brexit referendum. That will peter out later in the year.

    However the key thing is still that nothing has happened yet.

    It is clear government policy (hence the slapping down of Davis) to maintain the fiction that Brexit will have no adverse effects at all. It isn't a case that Brexit is on balance better. There will be some "blood, toil, sweat and tears" but no actual tear can be specifically identified. We are kicking the can down the road. For how long can government continue to do this?
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    Hilariously, after all the fanfare from Theresa May, Australia has announced this morning that it is negotiating with the EU, not Britain. It will keep channels open. :teehee:
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    (Original post by nulli tertius)
    At the moment this is all about sentiment. Basically nothing has happened yet. We dodged a bullet in the immediate aftermath of the vote. There was no announcement from anyone than might have set off a chain reaction of negativity. Neither side could have known that there was not at least one major business going to announce that it was off as a result of Brexit or even one going to use Brexit as an excuse for a long planned move elsewhere. If that had happened it is likely there would have been a rush to the door and a need for an emergency budget.

    That hasn't happened. We are now enjoying a mini boom from the activity that was suppressed by the uncertainty of the Brexit referendum. That will peter out later in the year.

    However the key thing is still that nothing has happened yet.

    It is clear government policy (hence the slapping down of Davis) to maintain the fiction that Brexit will have no adverse effects at all. It isn't a case that Brexit is on balance better. There will be some "blood, toil, sweat and tears" but no actual tear can be specifically identified. We are kicking the can down the road. For how long can government continue to do this?
    They can probably maintain current levels of prevarication and deceit for a few months more, but not much longer than that. At some point, the demands for clarity are going to achieve overwhelming scale and the government will enter into a dreadful moment when they must either admit the truth that they prefer clamping down on inward migration to economic success, or else bite the bullet and announce that the whole Brexit thing is going to be reviewed in the light of economic realities. If it's the first, the economy will start to do a major nosedive almost immediately.
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    (Original post by Fullofsurprises)
    They can probably maintain current levels of prevarication and deceit for a few months more, but not much longer than that. At some point, the demands for clarity are going to achieve overwhelming scale and the government will enter into a dreadful moment when they must either admit the truth that they prefer clamping down on inward migration to economic success, or else bite the bullet and announce that the whole Brexit thing is going to be reviewed in the light of economic realities. If it's the first, the economy will start to do a major nosedive almost immediately.
    I am not sure. If you can prevaricate until after the French and German elections, then the dead weight of inactivity may become a more pressing problem for the other EU states than us.

    I don't think we will leave via Article 50; there will be a new treaty and we will have a new status via a vis the EU with a newly minted name.

    As between us and the EU, article 50 favours the EU but amongst the EU states, it favours those with with no skin in this game but with unrelated issues which they can demand are dealt with first. Treaty negotiations favour the big European states, all of whom want Brexit addressing.
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    (Original post by nulli tertius)
    I don't think we will leave via Article 50; there will be a new treaty and we will have a new status via a vis the EU with a newly minted name.
    'The United Europe-Friendly Kingdom'?
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    (Original post by macromicro)
    It's far too early to be making such claims.
    .
    Not if you have remote signs of intelligence and don't have to rely on hindsight for everything. I don't have to cut off my arm to realize it hurts.

    But if you don't understand now, you will in a few years time.
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    (Original post by pairofjeans)
    Not if you have remote signs of intelligence and don't have to rely on hindsight for everything. I don't have to cut off my arm to realize it hurts.

    But if you don't understand now, you will in a few years time.
    Number of arguments provided: zero.
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    (Original post by macromicro)
    Number of arguments provided: zero.
    Not an argument. Loads of arguments have been provided throughout the thread. I was simply speculating at the drivel that you posted. How can you say it's far too early to make claims? Should we never speculate about anything ever again?

    Shall we disregard the thousands of economists who disagreed? Not only from not only England, but all around the world because obviously they're less informed about politics and economics than the average voter right?

    Or is it only too early to make claims when they're claims that disagree with? As I said before, I don't have to cut my arm off to realise that it'll hurt. It's putting 2 and 2 together.
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    (Original post by pairofjeans)
    Not an argument. Loads of arguments have been provided throughout the thread. I was simply speculating at the drivel that you posted. How can you say it's far too early to make claims? Should we never speculate about anything ever again?

    Shall we disregard the thousands of economists who disagreed? Not only from not only England, but all around the world because obviously they're less informed about politics and economics than the average voter right?

    Or is it only too early to make claims when they're claims that disagree with? As I said before, I don't have to cut my arm off to realise that it'll hurt. It's putting 2 and 2 together.
    More ad hominem; not a single argument.

    The point is quite clear: what can be claimed without evidence can be dismissed without evidence. Nothing has happened yet, making outlandish claims such as the one I responded to, i.e. that leave was a "moronic decision economically" is ridiculous at this stage.
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    (Original post by alevelstresss)
    I never claimed any of these things will happen so quickly, or at all. You have a bad habit of collectivising all remainers as the same person with the same thoughts, this is clearly insightful into your reason for voting Brexit - a misunderstanding of diversity and inherent dislike to anything which opposes your views.
    You just described yourself.
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    (Original post by Fullofsurprises)
    They can probably maintain current levels of prevarication and deceit for a few months more, but not much longer than that. At some point, the demands for clarity are going to achieve overwhelming scale and the government will enter into a dreadful moment when they must either admit the truth that they prefer clamping down on inward migration to economic success, or else bite the bullet and announce that the whole Brexit thing is going to be reviewed in the light of economic realities.
    Would a unique EEA membership for the UK fall into the latter category for you? Because I do not remember the Leave campaign maintaining that Brexit was a choice between full EU membership or going it alone. In fact, the reason I was on the fence for so long was precisely because leaving the EU and negotiating a hybrid EEA deal was an attractive reason to vote leave.
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    (Original post by Drewski)
    Given he's (essentially) out of office in 2 months - and that numerous other US politicians have said that they will definitely want to deal with the UK very quickly - I think we can all agree his comments are pretty irrelevant.
    Unless Trump wins Hilary will continue as normal.
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    (Original post by macromicro)
    More ad hominem; not a single argument.
    Literally said that in the first 3 words. I wasn't trying to repeat whats been said for the past 8 pages and give yet another argument.
    (Original post by macromicro)
    The point is quite clear: what can be claimed without evidence can be dismissed without evidence.
    Then the reason for your differing opinion to most of TSR and almost all experts is you seem to believe there's no evidence or no basis for dissenting claims. In which case, I'd strongly advise further reading before contributing to the discussion and saying stuff like "we can't claim anything yet!!!! Nothings happened!!". It's especially ludicrous when you consider that someone could flip your own argument. "We haven't left the EU. How do you know things will get better when the article is triggered? Lack of evidence!!!".

    There's supported reasoning for both the leave and remain group. Just because you need to rely on hindsight, doesn't mean everyone else does. E.g the guy talking about economics. There's a difference between an informed prediction and a guess.
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    (Original post by pairofjeans)
    Literally said that in the first 3 words. I wasn't trying to repeat whats been said for the past 8 pages and give yet another argument.
    Then the reason for your differing opinion to most of TSR and almost all experts is you seem to believe there's no evidence or no basis for dissenting claims. In which case, I'd strongly advise further reading before contributing to the discussion and saying stuff like "we can't claim anything yet!!!! Nothings happened!!". It's especially ludicrous when you consider that someone could flip your own argument. "We haven't left the EU. How do you know things will get better when the article is triggered? Lack of evidence!!!".

    There's supported reasoning for both the leave and remain group. Just because you need to rely on hindsight, doesn't mean everyone else does. E.g the guy talking about economics. There's a difference between an informed prediction and a guess.
    Fourth time lucky perhaps? Do you think you could manage just one argument in favour of your position? The argument cannot be flipped; the burden of proof is on the one who claimed that it is a "moronic economic decision" without evidence.
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    (Original post by Fullofsurprises)
    Theresa May has flown into China to receive a wave of warnings and cold rebuttals from world leaders about Brexit.
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-37269916

    Obama says there won't be a separate trade deal with the UK for a long time to come
    Obama won't be president for a long time to come...
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    (Original post by Fullofsurprises)
    They can probably maintain current levels of prevarication and deceit for a few months more, but not much longer than that. At some point, the demands for clarity are going to achieve overwhelming scale and the government will enter into a dreadful moment when they must either admit the truth that they prefer clamping down on inward migration to economic success, or else bite the bullet and announce that the whole Brexit thing is going to be reviewed in the light of economic realities. If it's the first, the economy will start to do a major nosedive almost immediately.
    No, this will not happen, stop scaremongering.
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    (Original post by macromicro)
    Do you think you could manage just one argument in favour of your position? The argument cannot be flipped; the burden of proof is on the one who claimed that it is a "moronic economic decision" without evidence.
    1. At least now I know why you're so argumentative. You don't fully read posts you reply to.
    "Loads of arguments have been provided throughout the thread. I was simply speculating at the drivel that you posted. How can you say it's far too early to make claims? Should we never speculate about anything ever again?"

    Once you've read up, you can properly contribute to the conversation.

    http://lmgtfy.com/?q=economic+repercussions+of+brexit


    2. The argument cannot be flipped?
    . "We haven't left the EU. How do you know things will get better when the article is triggered? "

    Alternative flip

    "You are claiming leaving the EU isn't a mornoic economic decision? Where is your proof"

    If anything, the alternative should be whats asked. Because I've seen way too many studies from experts saying it was economically a hilarious decision. I genuinely want to read a study arguing the other point of view. But the fact that they're so hard to find doesn't really shock me.

    If you struggled to comprehend any of that then there's no point continuing.

    (Original post by JavaScriptMaster)
    Obama won't be president for a long time to come...
    And you think HILLARY OR TRUMP will be any more lenient? Is this bait?
 
 
 
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