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    (Original post by Midlander)
    I find it very odd that Labour wasn't destroyed in Scotland after the 'illegal wars' and two terms of Thatcher-lite politics, but was destroyed when it was led by the son of a famous socialist trying to get back to old Labour. Seems all the SNP had to do was say 'anti austerity' and field virtually anyone as a candidate.
    Do you mean the illegal wars that nobody has declared illegal, that aren't illegal and got labour voted in again?

    The SNP have effectively tapped into the 'vote for us and we'll give you more things for free.'

    It's only a matter of time befor large amounts of people start going 'well where is it.'
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    (Original post by MatureStudent36)
    Do you mean the illegal wars that nobody has declared illegal, that aren't illegal and got labour voted in again?

    The SNP have effectively tapped into the 'vote for us and we'll give you more things for free.'

    It's only a matter of time befor large amounts of people start going 'well where is it.'
    You will note I put that in inverted commas, but since Scots are morally superior to their English neighbours I expected a Labour whitewash. Obviously it took the most leftist Labour leader since Kinnock to do that.


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    (Original post by Midlander)
    You will note I put that in inverted commas, but since Scots are morally superior to their English neighbours I expected a Labour whitewash. Obviously it took the most leftist Labour leader since Kinnock to do that.


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    I'd question morally superior. The social strategy seems to have benefited middle classes more than anybody else whilst simultaneously making invited promises to the poorest in society.
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    (Original post by MatureStudent36)
    I'd question morally superior. The social strategy seems to have benefited middle classes more than anybody else whilst simultaneously making invited promises to the poorest in society.
    Their decision to cut college places and centralise the remainder whilst keeping free tuition is a good example of this. An example being the Banff and Buchan college in Fraserburgh being shut and the students moved to Aberdeen if they could still go.

    Still that area will elect the SNP even if they knocked down everyone's house.


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    (Original post by L i b)
    Have you calculated that using the polling companies' weightings or averaged it out against the general population share? Because nothing in YouGov seems to suggest that to me.
    What does the YouGov polling suggest to you?
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    (Original post by Gordon1985)
    What does the YouGov polling suggest to you?
    There's a number of ways you could calculate what you suggested about those under a certain age voting for the union, either using their weightings or general population weightings and averaging it out - but I can't see how any come to your conclusion.

    What do I think of YouGov's polling? Hmm, not a great deal really. As I've said, it uses small subsample sizes and is remarkably different from Ashcroft. I don't think it's particularly valuable as a statement of how people voted, although those two polls are all we have. It's an unfortunate thing that everyone's willing to throw money at polls in the run up to an event, but afterwards they fall by the wayside: the newspapers have their headlines already.

    As I've said, I don't think there's a particularly good demographic argument there anyway. Older people are more dependent on the state, more conservative, less able to change their income and so on. The generation may change, but the motivations to vote against separating from the UK will likely remain.

    YouGov found that Labour was on 32% with young people, and the Conservatives and Greens tied for second at 22%. I don't think anyone is really imagining though that this means in however many years, our politics will be radically shifted to the left.
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    (Original post by L i b)
    There's a number of ways you could calculate what you suggested about those under a certain age voting for the union, either using their weightings or general population weightings and averaging it out - but I can't see how any come to your conclusion.

    What do I think of YouGov's polling? Hmm, not a great deal really. As I've said, it uses small subsample sizes and is remarkably different from Ashcroft. I don't think it's particularly valuable as a statement of how people voted, although those two polls are all we have. It's an unfortunate thing that everyone's willing to throw money at polls in the run up to an event, but afterwards they fall by the wayside: the newspapers have their headlines already.

    As I've said, I don't think there's a particularly good demographic argument there anyway. Older people are more dependent on the state, more conservative, less able to change their income and so on. The generation may change, but the motivations to vote against separating from the UK will likely remain.

    YouGov found that Labour was on 32% with young people, and the Conservatives and Greens tied for second at 22%. I don't think anyone is really imagining though that this means in however many years, our politics will be radically shifted to the left.
    Whatever the specifics, I think we can all agree older people were more likely to vote No than younger people though right?

    What you say about voting intentions is true. People get more conservative as they get older and become more likely to vote Tory. If that's the way it works with independence then yes, the demographics don't favour a Yes vote in the foreseeable future.

    I don't think it's a given that the Yes/No split is purely an age thing and not a generational thing. It could be that today's older generations feel a tie to the union that the younger generations just don't.

    I'm sure one of you will come along and try to refute that suggestion but frankly, none of us know enough to say what the demographics mean for a possible referendum re-run in the medium term.
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    (Original post by Gordon1985)
    Whatever the specifics, I think we can all agree older people were more likely to vote No than younger people though right?

    What you say about voting intentions is true. People get more conservative as they get older and become more likely to vote Tory. If that's the way it works with independence then yes, the demographics don't favour a Yes vote in the foreseeable future.

    I don't think it's a given that the Yes/No split is purely an age thing and not a generational thing. It could be that today's older generations feel a tie to the union that the younger generations just don't.

    I'm sure one of you will come along and try to refute that suggestion but frankly, none of us know enough to say what the demographics mean for a possible referendum re-run in the medium term.
    I've already said I think the yes vote was found in the middle. If I had to make any assessment of it, it would be that the no vote won out at both ends of the age spectrum.

    There doesn't seem to be much evidence that the emerging young folk of today feel less attached to Britain either. As ScotCen Social Research found before the referendum--

    "those aged 14-17 are much less likely to have a strong sense of Scottish identity than those aged 18-24 or, indeed, adults in general. Only 12% of 14-17 year olds say that they are ‘Scottish, not British’, compared with no less than 35% of 18-24 year olds and 23% of adults as a whole"

    If you want to hear my pet theory - and it's not particularly well evidenced, but here we go - it's that older people have a rather old, imperial British identity. Those in the middle are at a transitional phase, but the youngest see Britain not in terms of empire, the Second World War or any of that - but as a fairly normal, reasonably powerful European nation-state.

    I'm not trying to refute what you say or try to talk-down your ideas on this. They're as valid as mine, and realistically we're all taking shots in the dark here with very little information. Ultimately the only confident future prediction we can make is that one day Britain will die - and one day Scotland will die too. Every nation and every state is but a blip in human history. So why don't we all get together, put our differences aside and have a bit more fun?
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    (Original post by Gordon1985)
    Whatever the specifics, I think we can all agree older people were more likely to vote No than younger people though right?

    What you say about voting intentions is true. People get more conservative as they get older and become more likely to vote Tory. If that's the way it works with independence then yes, the demographics don't favour a Yes vote in the foreseeable future.

    I don't think it's a given that the Yes/No split is purely an age thing and not a generational thing. It could be that today's older generations feel a tie to the union that the younger generations just don't.

    I'm sure one of you will come along and try to refute that suggestion but frankly, none of us know enough to say what the demographics mean for a possible referendum re-run in the medium term.
    There is some substance to the generational argument, people who experienced the hardship of wartime and post war Britain saw that victory was a British effort and they were all affected by it. The noble SNP at the same time were lauding European fascism as a counter to British imperialism.

    Perhaps the elderly of today with all their life experience see that division doesn't make anyone better off and that solidarity with people across the island does. Salmond's bid to get rid of the Union Jack from merchant navy ships, the SNP proposal to scrap the British Transport Police in Scotland etc etc is what the current generation must contend with.


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    (Original post by L i b)
    I've already said I think the yes vote was found in the middle. If I had to make any assessment of it, it would be that the no vote won out at both ends of the age spectrum.

    There doesn't seem to be much evidence that the emerging young folk of today feel less attached to Britain either. As ScotCen Social Research found before the referendum--

    "those aged 14-17 are much less likely to have a strong sense of Scottish identity than those aged 18-24 or, indeed, adults in general. Only 12% of 14-17 year olds say that they are ‘Scottish, not British’, compared with no less than 35% of 18-24 year olds and 23% of adults as a whole"

    If you want to hear my pet theory - and it's not particularly well evidenced, but here we go - it's that older people have a rather old, imperial British identity. Those in the middle are at a transitional phase, but the youngest see Britain not in terms of empire, the Second World War or any of that - but as a fairly normal, reasonably powerful European nation-state.
    Possibly a fair shout. We can all take reasonable guesses at what older and younger voters think now (as reasonable as grouping hundreds of thousands of people together can ever be) but the voters who'll come up through the years are a lot harder to pin any guesses onto.
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    (Original post by Midlander)
    There is some substance to the generational argument, people who experienced the hardship of wartime and post war Britain saw that victory was a British effort and they were all affected by it. The noble SNP at the same time were lauding European fascism as a counter to British imperialism.

    Perhaps the elderly of today with all their life experience see that division doesn't make anyone better off and that solidarity with people across the island does. Salmond's bid to get rid of the Union Jack from merchant navy ships, the SNP proposal to scrap the British Transport Police in Scotland etc etc is what the current generation must contend with.


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    Oh come on, just as the discussion was becoming worthwhile. Painting older voters as full of wisdom, 'life-experience' and sound decision making is just as intellectually dishonest as painting them as stubborn, technophobes who only care about their pensions.
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    (Original post by Gordon1985)
    Whatever the specifics, I think we can all agree older people were more likely to vote No than younger people though right?

    What you say about voting intentions is true. People get more conservative as they get older and become more likely to vote Tory. If that's the way it works with independence then yes, the demographics don't favour a Yes vote in the foreseeable future.

    I don't think it's a given that the Yes/No split is purely an age thing and not a generational thing. It could be that today's older generations feel a tie to the union that the younger generations just don't.

    I'm sure one of you will come along and try to refute that suggestion but frankly, none of us know enough to say what the demographics mean for a possible referendum re-run in the medium term.
    You can't say that in the slightest. Numerous mock referendums held in schools and colleges in the run up to the referendum indicated a strong support for the union among younger people. As libs has explained the 'younger people are more likely to vote yes' comes from some rather iffy interpretations of a poll.

    There were some rather emotive arguments put forward by the YeSNP team that could've swung quite a few people, but we're seeing yet more years of a decline in oil output, a significant reduction in ten chance of an oil fund and still no eveidence of salmond and sturgeons mythical EU evidence.

    In summary, the SNP threw a lot of BS onto the mix and were found to be lacking. I think after a few mor years of seeing Scotland fall further behind the rest of the UK and it'll be even harder for them.
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    (Original post by Gordon1985)
    Whatever the specifics, I think we can all agree older people were more likely to vote No than younger people though right?
    Depends what you're counting as 'older' and 'younger' I think.

    Those 25-35 were more likely to than 65-75 year olds for sure.

    But I don't think the same can be said of those under 25, nor comparing those 25-35 with 35-45 or even 45-55 much.
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    (Original post by Gordon1985)
    Oh come on, just as the discussion was becoming worthwhile. Painting older voters as full of wisdom, 'life-experience' and sound decision making is just as intellectually dishonest as painting them as stubborn, technophobes who only care about their pensions.
    In general they are stubborn technophobes who only care about their pension though...
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    (Original post by MatureStudent36)
    You can't say that in the slightest. Numerous mock referendums held in schools and colleges in the run up to the referendum indicated a strong support for the union among younger people. As libs has explained the 'younger people are more likely to vote yes' comes from some rather iffy interpretations of a poll.
    I'm talking about younger generations, in general, not necessarily 16 and 17 year olds. One of the Ashcroft/YouGov polls actually did have 16-24s voting No I believe, can't remember which one. I'm perfectly willing to entertain the notion that 16-24s or teenagers showed a different voting pattern to the 24-39 age group and up.

    The Ashcroft/YouGov polling suggested that the 24-55 group were marginally in favour of independence, or at least much more willing to support it than the 55+ group. You can keep calling the polling dodgy all you like. I know the post-referendum analysis wasn't anywhere near as extensive as the pre-referendum polling. I've asked what specifically seems wrong with it aside from the usual health warnings about opinion polls and haven't had anything back. Which suggests you just don't like it because it's hinting at something you don't want to be true. It's also rather silly given how hard you're plugging these 'school mock referendum'.
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    (Original post by Quady)
    Depends what you're counting as 'older' and 'younger' I think.

    Those 25-35 were more likely to than 65-75 year olds for sure.

    But I don't think the same can be said of those under 25, nor comparing those 25-35 with 35-45 or even 45-55 much.
    Yeah, I mean only in a very general sense. the 16-24 group do seem to have been more pro-union than those immediately older than then and then there seems to be a bit of a sliding scale, with stronger support for the union from 25 upwards.

    I'd love to see a much more detailed analysis and it would be particularly interesting to see why the youngest group bucked the apparent trend.
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    (Original post by Quady)
    In general they are stubborn technophobes who only care about their pension though...
    The point being, I can come up with as many unfair reasons why pensioners are more likely to make a bad choice as anyone else can come up with for why they'd make a good choice.
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    (Original post by Gordon1985)
    Yeah, I mean only in a very general sense. the 16-24 group do seem to have been more pro-union than those immediately older than then and then there seems to be a bit of a sliding scale, with stronger support for the union from 25 upwards.

    I'd love to see a much more detailed analysis and it would be particularly interesting to see why the youngest group bucked the apparent trend.
    General trends aren't so helpful though, the reasons for people voting the ways they did were numerous and complex.

    I voted yes as it'd mean I'd be made redundant and get a decent pay off because of it.
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    (Original post by Gordon1985)
    I'm talking about younger generations, in general, not necessarily 16 and 17 year olds. One of the Ashcroft/YouGov polls actually did have 16-24s voting No I believe, can't remember which one. I'm perfectly willing to entertain the notion that 16-24s or teenagers showed a different voting pattern to the 24-39 age group and up.

    The Ashcroft/YouGov polling suggested that the 24-55 group were marginally in favour of independence, or at least much more willing to support it than the 55+ group. You can keep calling the polling dodgy all you like. I know the post-referendum analysis wasn't anywhere near as extensive as the pre-referendum polling. I've asked what specifically seems wrong with it aside from the usual health warnings about opinion polls and haven't had anything back. Which suggests you just don't like it because it's hinting at something you don't want to be true. It's also rather silly given how hard you're plugging these 'school mock referendum'.
    As has been explained before, the Ashcroft/ yougov poll had a unrealistic sample size of that age group.

    Next thing you'll be saying is that the farcical wing over Scotland panelbase polls were great.

    http://www.theguardian.com/politics/...olls-panelbase

    http://m.scotsman.com/news/politics/...olls-1-3080830
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    (Original post by MatureStudent36)
    As has been explained before, the Ashcroft/ yougov poll had a unrealistic sample size of that age group.
    Yes, you've said that and you continue to fixate on the youngest age group when that's very clearly not the extent of what i'm talking about.

    Clearly the 16-24 group in the youGov poll contains a pretty high margin of error with the unweighted sample only 283 but the the 40-59 group was more than big enough to be with the 3% margin of error and that came out 50/50.

    The overall poll was over 3000 people. There is a clear trend in the numbers. John Curtice has enough confidence in it to make similar claims to the ones I've made...

    http://blog.whatscotlandthinks.org/2...ted-yes-voted/

    Forgive me if i give a little more weight to his opinion than you muttering about the 16-24 sample size over and over again.
 
 
 

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