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If the UK leaves the EU what would happen? watch

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    (Original post by Howard)
    Not necessarily. The link between falling currencies and inflation isn't what it predictably once was. That classic dynamic has changed.

    Consider Canada - very recently the Loonie fell roughly 30% against the Greenback, mainly as a result of falling commodity prices. It's now recovering, it's fortunes being linked with oil, but there were no inflationary problems in Canada. Mortgages were at the lowest rates in the country's history and investment was at an all time high since a weaker Loonie made things in Canada cheaper to invest in.
    Except Britain has just left the largest trading block in the world and the largest companies want to leave rather than invest.
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    (Original post by darkvibes)
    What's your view, remain or leave?
    Leave obviously if you have been reading the thread


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    Do people think the government credit rating could fall if the UK leaves the EU?
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    (Original post by Alex from almanis)
    Do people think the government credit rating could fall if the UK leaves the EU?
    The governments credit rating is up to the agencies not the eu.

    I know that is not what you were asking but there is no way of knowing what will or won't bring it down it's already gone down and back up in the last government


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    (Original post by jshipman4)
    read daily express
    I think we've identified precisely where you went wrong.
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    The reality of it, 99% of the populace won't feel any difference beyond as there will still be the usual French wines and Spanish fruits and vegetables at the supermarkets, perhaps a bit more expensive and presumably there will be some adjustments required in terms of paperwork to trade with the EU.

    Presumably after June it would be a few years before UK is officially out of EU as I highly doubt the process would be automatic and immediate. There should be time to negotiate some trade deals and presumably what would happen to all the EU nationals that are already in UK or UK nationals that are in the EU. My guess is there won't be any exodus and some deal would be made that would allow EU nationals to work in UK anyway, business and farming groups would insist on this.

    In the mean time it would be an absolute circus and pure entertainment to watch UK trying to vote in the EU Parliament or on other regulations while no one else pays heed or tells them to shut up.

    I'm all for out as it would be beneficial for the EU to remove their biggest stumbling block to those who want further integration. Sorry to disappoint but the EU isn't going away just because UK leaves it.
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    (Original post by Alfissti)
    The reality of it, 99% of the populace won't feel any difference beyond as there will still be the usual French wines and Spanish fruits and vegetables at the supermarkets, perhaps a bit more expensive and presumably there will be some adjustments required in terms of paperwork to trade with the EU.

    Presumably after June it would be a few years before UK is officially out of EU as I highly doubt the process would be automatic and immediate. There should be time to negotiate some trade deals and presumably what would happen to all the EU nationals that are already in UK or UK nationals that are in the EU. My guess is there won't be any exodus and some deal would be made that would allow EU nationals to work in UK anyway, business and farming groups would insist on this.

    In the mean time it would be an absolute circus and pure entertainment to watch UK trying to vote in the EU Parliament or on other regulations while no one else pays heed or tells them to shut up.

    I'm all for out as it would be beneficial for the EU to remove their biggest stumbling block to those who want further integration. Sorry to disappoint but the EU isn't going away just because UK leaves it.
    I think there will be more people affected than you think. Uncertainity immediately after a vote to leave would spook the markets and cause the pound to go down making imports like oil more expensive. We have already seen that at the petrol station with petrol going pass the £1 mark when the pound went down against the dollar.

    The biggest problem is if a few large companies moved from the UK or reduced their investments here, there will be job losses and its not clear if the remaining companies can pick up the slack. There will be an incentive for the EU to favour EU companies for business and big iprojects like building new roads that would put UK based companies at a disadvantage.

    The temptation would be for UK companies to move to the EU or at least move a large chuck of their business to the EU but because the UK would not be in the EU, the employees have no automatic right to move with their company to the EU.
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    (Original post by Howard)
    Why would you want to? With the obvious exception of Australia, NZ, and Canada, most of them are complete basket cases.
    India has the third largest economy in the world, Canada imports a lot although they have a fair amount of exports compared to us, although they're all overseas country so transporting costs would be quite high
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    I need some information on a PESTLE in favour of leaving the EU, what political effects would it have? (preferably benefits)
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    (Original post by Sebastian Bartlett)
    Tbh no one really knows and it could go either way. Those saying it will definitely get better or worse are being rather stupid as it is very uncertain.
    So how do you know whether we should leave or not because it doesn't make sense to say that no one knows definitely if things will get better or worse and then say lets leave?
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    stay in and let Brussels RUN the country. there half way there anyway

    they would do better job than dodgy dave and mr bean the chancellor of the exchequer
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    (Original post by Teddysmith123)
    So how do you know whether we should leave or not because it doesn't make sense to say that no one knows definitely if things will get better or worse and then say lets leave?
    I think it's fairer to say that there's plenty of people with very clear opinions on whether leaving or remaining will be a good or a bad idea for the economy, but that nobody is 'correct', as there's plenty of evidence either way to contradict each other.

    So nobody 'knows', as there's no consensus on what would happen, although plenty think they are right and the others are wrong.

    Really, what we are doing is placing bets on what outcome we think is more likely and more desirable.
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    (Original post by jshipman4)
    stay in and let Brussels RUN the country. there half way there anyway
    No, we're not, and no, Brussels does not.
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    (Original post by zayn008)
    India has the third largest economy in the world, Canada imports a lot although they have a fair amount of exports compared to us, although they're all overseas country so transporting costs would be quite high
    India has the seventh largest economy in the world.
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    (Original post by Alex from almanis)
    Do people think the government credit rating could fall if the UK leaves the EU?
    Why would it?
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    we voted ukips MEPs to represent us there....what does that say
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    (Original post by paul514)
    They would negotiate a trade deal, we would control eu migration like we do none eu migration, pay a bit less to the eu budget, be able to blame our government for anything in future as the eu wouldn't be responsible anymore and life would go on


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    Why would the UK still pay money to the EU after leaving it???
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    (Original post by Guls)
    Why would the UK still pay money to the EU after leaving it???
    Either:

    a) we join the EEA, subject ourselves to EU law as now, but have less control over how EU law is framed, and we have to pay for its maintenance. Or:

    b) we arrange a collection of bilateral agreements with the EU, like Switzerland does, subject ourselves to EU law as now, but have less control over how EU law is framed, and we have to pay for its maintenance. Or:

    c) we establish a lukewarm free trade agreement with the EU, divest ourselves of subjection to EU law and stop paying for it, but lose access to the Single Market, causing a considerable loss in revenue. Or:

    d) we rage quit.
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    (Original post by gladders)
    I think it's fairer to say that there's plenty of people with very clear opinions on whether leaving or remaining will be a good or a bad idea for the economy, but that nobody is 'correct', as there's plenty of evidence either way to contradict each other.

    So nobody 'knows', as there's no consensus on what would happen, although plenty think they are right and the others are wrong.

    Really, what we are doing is placing bets on what outcome we think is more likely and more desirable.
    It basically depends on two models of Britain (The idea that Britian is going its own way is absurd despite claims from both sides)It largely depends on your own political outlook.

    It can go the Social Democratic model of Europe, Higher taxes, more regulation but better public services and a fairer economic and social enviroment.

    Or it can go the Free Market way of the US where there's less tax and regulation but public services are marketized and inequality is rampant.


    (Oh and it could also leave the EU and revolutionize completely ie BNP, Communist etc (Not going to happen)
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    (Original post by gladders)
    Either:

    a) we join the EEA, subject ourselves to EU law as now, but have less control over how EU law is framed, and we have to pay for its maintenance. Or:

    b) we arrange a collection of bilateral agreements with the EU, like Switzerland does, subject ourselves to EU law as now, but have less control over how EU law is framed, and we have to pay for its maintenance. Or:

    c) we establish a lukewarm free trade agreement with the EU, divest ourselves of subjection to EU law and stop paying for it, but lose access to the Single Market, causing a considerable loss in revenue. Or:

    d) we rage quit.
    Stop talking our country down, we can do whatever we want! In fact, we'll get them to pay us money instead! When we have world class political heavy weights like Boris Johnson and Nigel Farage representing Britannia we will surely soar!
 
 
 
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