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    WTH is going on right now?

    First Egyptair says they have found the wreckage, now they retract the claim, then the US say they've found no evidence of an explosion????
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    That's so sad.
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    (Original post by UWS;[url="tel:64942469")
    64942469[/url]]Update: Egyptair Flight 804 has crashed. Egyptair says 56 passengers and 10 crew were on board the Airbus A320 from Paris to Cairo.

    An international search is underway.

    Live updates from The Guardian

    http://www.theguardian.com/world/liv...s-live-updates
    What, just like MH370?
    I read this book about how what the media was/is saying about MH370 is a load of bull and they give so much facts to show that some one IS hiding something.
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    (Original post by Dodgypirate)
    WTH is going on right now?

    First Egyptair says they have found the wreckage, now they retract the claim, then the US say they've found no evidence of an explosion????
    What is going on is that lots of people were jumping to conclusions and are now retreating from them.

    Terrorism is the most likely cause of this accident in the same way that Manchester United is the most likely winner of the FA Cup. That doesn't mean that Crystal Palace supporters should spend Saturday doing the gardening.

    We know less than we think

    This is a forum for professional pilots:-

    http://www.pprune.org/rumours-news/5...-cairo-12.html

    As you can see, these violent turns in the descent may be entirely fictitious.

    Even the poster who questions whether the plane has crashed at all, is not "shot down in flames" by other posters because this is a credible though unlikely scenario based on known information.
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    (Original post by nulli tertius)
    What is going on is that lots of people were jumping to conclusions and are now retreating from them.

    Terrorism is the most likely cause of this accident in the same way that Manchester United is the most likely winner of the FA Cup. That doesn't mean that Crystal Palace supporters should spend Saturday doing the gardening.

    We know less than we think

    This is a forum for professional pilots:-

    http://www.pprune.org/rumours-news/5...-cairo-12.html

    As you can see, these violent turns in the descent may be entirely fictitious.

    Even the poster who questions whether the plane has crashed at all, is not "shot down in flames" by other posters because this is a credible though unlikely scenario based on known information.
    Those people are all pilots?

    If so, this comment jumped out:

    "While an unlikely scenario, the point of disappearance is exactly in the middle of the "blind spot" for both Greek and Egyptian primary radar below FL100, and there are plenty of runways in Northern Libya within expected endurance where an A320 could land. Hiding it after daybreak from prying satellite eyes is another story, and were this the case we would probably have heard the demands by now..."

    Lots of possible dimensions to this, but it must be intriguing that it went down in a blind spot. It opens the possibility that this is another Malaysian Airlines pilot suicide thing. Also we shouldn't forget that EgyptAir has past form for that.
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    (Original post by Fullofsurprises)
    Those people are all pilots?
    Not all. Some are ex-pilots whose stories seem to start with "As Orville and Wilbur said to me", and some posters have flown nothing larger than an X-Box. Many of the pilots are recreational pilots but there is a nucleus of current commercial pilots who know what they are talking about.

    Say anything nonsensical and other posters pile in, in the same way TSR does to anyone who posts that you must have a Duke of Edinburgh's Platinum Award with swords and oakleaves to get into Oxbridge.
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    (Original post by Fullofsurprises)
    Also we shouldn't forget that EgyptAir has past form for that.
    Only in the USA. The same plane crashed due to mechanical failure in Egypt.
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    (Original post by Fullofsurprises)
    Those people are all pilots?

    If so, this comment jumped out:

    "While an unlikely scenario, the point of disappearance is exactly in the middle of the "blind spot" for both Greek and Egyptian primary radar below FL100, and there are plenty of runways in Northern Libya within expected endurance where an A320 could land. Hiding it after daybreak from prying satellite eyes is another story, and were this the case we would probably have heard the demands by now..."

    Lots of possible dimensions to this, but it must be intriguing that it went down in a blind spot. It opens the possibility that this is another Malaysian Airlines pilot suicide thing. Also we shouldn't forget that EgyptAir has past form for that.
    this nonsense is just insulting to the memories of the innocent victims.
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    (Original post by the bear)
    this nonsense is just insulting to the memories of the innocent victims.
    I think they are just trying to be detached and clinical about it and analyse the various possibilities. Of course that wouldn't read well (and neither would a lot of this thread and threads to come on TSR) to the relatives of the people involved. If I was one of them, I would probably be tearing my hair out in frustration at all the rumours.
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    (Original post by Fullofsurprises)
    I think they are just trying to be detached and clinical about it and analyse the various possibilities. Of course that wouldn't read well (and neither would a lot of this thread and threads to come on TSR) to the relatives of the people involved. If I was one of them, I would probably be tearing my hair out in frustration at all the rumours.
    making up bull:dolphin::dolphin::dolphin::dolphin: fantasy stories about secret abductions does not count as analysis.
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    (Original post by the bear)
    making up bull:dolphin::dolphin::dolphin::dolphin: fantasy stories about secret abductions does not count as analysis.
    You don't believe the pilot in MH370 more or less did exactly that, except that he crashed it instead of flying it to a runway somewhere?
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    (Original post by beta_tester)
    These experts, like you and me, have nothing on the situation. The only thing they have is their credentials, but that doesn't change the fact that these people are absolutely in the dark as to what happened.

    The reason people are labelling this as terrorism is because of Egypt, they claimed this was more likely to be a terrorist incident rather than mechanical failure. This is more likely because they want people looking to come to Egypt to ignore the fact that there have been serious incidents on three EgyptAir flights in the last year.

    Nothing about the flight pattern indicates terrorism, as I said several times, it couldn't have been bombed because the plane was known to swerve left and then right into a full circle - a plane at 37,000 feet would have been obliterated into smaller pieces just like MH17 and the earlier EgyptAir planes were, except the EgyptAir one last year was at 31,000 feet - so a bomb on todays plane would most certainly have caused it to be destroyed completely and unable to perform this 'left and right turn'. Unless it was a tiny bomb which killed the crew only, but that seems less likely.

    History shows that a bombed plane would rapidly drop altitude and speed, evidently something else happened here.
    Complete drivel.

    You accused the 'experts' of not knowing what they are dealing with and then go on to make huge assumptions about how an aircraft would behave and disintegrate without knowing the root cause or circumstances leading up to the loss and then dismissing outright an act of terrorism!

    May as well read tea leaves.
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    (Original post by Fullofsurprises)
    You don't believe the pilot in MH370 more or less did exactly that, except that he crashed it instead of flying it to a runway somewhere?
    There are clear differences: in the case of MH370, evidence has been found to support the idea of a pilot hijack (and possible suicide); in the case of MS804, almost no evidence has been found at the moment.

    Certainly, no evidence has been published that pins the blame on the pilot, or that indicates a successful hijack and later landing, though the final manoeuvres tend to support the idea of a cockpit struggle.

    The full truth won't be known until the wreckage and recorders are found.
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    (Original post by Fullofsurprises)
    You don't believe the pilot in MH370 more or less did exactly that, except that he crashed it instead of flying it to a runway somewhere?
    i have not analysed the evidence for every single aviation tragedy in the world. i have a life, unlike the unfortunate people at the bottom of the Mediterranean.
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    (Original post by the bear)
    i have not analysed the evidence for every single aviation tragedy in the world. i have a life, unlike the unfortunate people at the bottom of the Mediterranean.
    You're on the wrong thread then, come on you must have a favourite conspiracy theory from the last 13 pages?
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    (Original post by hovado)
    You're on the wrong thread then, come on you must have a favourite conspiracy theory from the last 13 pages?
    conspiracy theories ( pace Fullofsurprises ) are really only appropriate for 12 year olds who breakfast on Doritos and Relentless.
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    (Original post by the bear)
    conspiracy theories ( pace Fullofsurprises ) are really only appropriate for 12 year olds who breakfast on Doritos and Relentless.
    I had Doritos for breakfast this morning. :eek: Are you watching me bear?
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    I wouldn't rule out Pilot Suicide with this one. Egyptair already has a blot related to that on its reputation (EgyptAir 990), and it isn't unlikely that it may have happened again. The plane banks sharply to the left, drops 22,000 feet, and then disappears from the Radar. It's possible that someone may have put it into such a steep dive that the airframe tore itself apart.
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    (Original post by hovado)
    I had Doritos for breakfast this morning. :eek: Are you watching me bear?
    bear™ rests his case

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    (Original post by uberteknik)
    Complete drivel.

    You accused the 'experts' of not knowing what they are dealing with and then go on to make huge assumptions about how an aircraft would behave and disintegrate without knowing the root cause or circumstances leading up to the loss and then dismissing outright an act of terrorism!

    May as well read tea leaves.
    I'm not making assumptions, I am basing it on past study of similar incidents. There are three major reasons why this couldn't have been a bomb, and suddenly the experts are starting to agree with me.

    "Mike Vivian, former head of operations at the UK’s Civil Aviation Authority, told the BBC he thought the plane’s sharp manoeuvres before disappearing from radar were more likely to be caused by human interference than by a bomb." Source

    In no past flight crash of this size has the cause immediately been pinpointed to terrorism. Even with the last EgyptAir crash, which was brought down by terrorism, had experts chronically denying that it could've been a terrorist attack. Now everyone sees two coincidences - EgyptAir again, and originating from Paris - and everyone jumps onto the conclusion that it was a terror attack.

    It was almost certainly not brought down by a bomb, unless it was a really small one which singularly killed the pilots and no one else. This is why:

    1. A terrorist would definitely not set a bomb to go off 3:40 into a 4:00 hour flight, anyone who has followed plane crashes knows that a bomb is less effective at lower altitude. Although the plane hadn't yet started descending, a terrorist would have a much safer bet of putting it 1 or 2 hours into a 4 hour flight, especially if you factor in possible delays. A delay would've saved this plane if that were the case, and for a terrorist trying to get into the most secure airport system in Europe, given the recent attacks in Paris, it makes no sense why they would so precisely infiltrate this airport and place a bomb and then not consider the possibility of the plane being too low altitude at the 3:40 mark. You could make the argument that the bomb was placed in Cairo airport on a previous journey and not set for many hours, but there are other reasons which factor in to it not being explosive.

    2. A plane hit by any decent size explosive would've been completely destroyed midair. The EgyptAir and PanAn explosives broke it in mid air, it would not have been capable of this 'left then right circle' manoeuvre, which is what is explained in the source I linked. It would more likely have been split in two and fallen down, being completely uncontrollable - evidently the plane was intact after this 'incident' and it managed to turn, a broken plane would not have been detected to do this.

    3. Paris and Cairo are very secure airports. Given the recent attacks in Paris, and the Metrojet bombing, both countries seriously upped their security. I would be very surprised if an explosive got through either airports.


    So no, my theory isn't a baseless assumption like the dozens of 'experts' who are claiming that this is 'almost certainly terrorism'. It could've been a hijacking, but less likely because there were THREE air marshals on board, and the door is very secure.


    More likely theory - the crew were somehow incapacitated by a mechanical failure or technical fault, or there was another problem with the aircraft.
 
 
 
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