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If the result is Leave, will we leave? watch

  • View Poll Results: After a Leave result in the Referendum, the UK would...
    End up remaining after a lot of discussion and debate with little real change
    37
    21.02%
    End up remaining but with some meaningful changes
    17
    9.66%
    Leave but only half-heartedly and with little real change
    72
    40.91%
    Leave abruptly and possibly chaotically
    50
    28.41%

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    (Original post by nulli tertius)
    Very unlikely. They aren't really in the same segment of the market.
    We're an enormous export market for them - single largest by volume...
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    The other day I heard someone mention;

    'If we leave the EU, we'll be fine. Because if they need us so badly, or if we have such a large role working in the EU, financially. We should be perfectly fine working independently. So why don't we try it out, and if it doesn't work to how we expected, it's merely a mistake and of course, we learn from it. Would they take us back though?'
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    (Original post by Fullofsurprises)
    With many polls now suggesting a majority for Leave, I can't help but wonder what the real outcome of a Leave vote would be.

    The law that created the referendum in no way binds the government to do any specific thing as a result. Cameron will not want to leave. Even if he immediately resigned and was replaced in an election by Bojo or Teresa May, there are no certainties. May is a Remainer and Boris was until about a month before the campaign and he saw an opportunity to defeat his old enemy Dave.

    So what would actually happen? Would HMG steam in to battle, determined to remove us from the EU? Or something different?

    My guess is there would be a prolonged period of 'negotiating the departure'. At the end of it, the government will announce that there are so many terrible consequences that having thought it all over, they think the best thing would be to remain in after all.

    Thoughts?
    I think a Leave vote will only be the beginning, and a further referendum will be called (and will vote to stay in) after more substantive changes are negotiated with the EU.

    You might like to see what a law firm thinks:
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    (Original post by EuanF)
    We're an enormous export market for them - single largest by volume...
    This isn't one market; it is many hundreds of markets. If I want a German machine tool, I won't be satisfied with two weeks on the Costa del Sol.
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    (Original post by davgen7)
    My prediction

    85% at least will vote leave
    It will be rigged and it will be announced that we voted to stay

    Or

    85% will vote leave
    The politicians all have to agree to leave to actually enforce it and they wont
    It takes 4 years to leave by which point we will be so swamped with immigrants getting in while they still can that it wont make much difference

    The people making money of us staying are the same people who get to realistically decide if we stay or leave

    Its not gonna happen lads
    Oh boy, has nobody told you yet? Leaving the EU is going to have no effect on migration. Whilst there are 185,000 EU immigrants every year, there is also 185,000 non-EU immigrants every year. If the government wanted to cut immigration then they could. They could cut it in half over night. But they don't. Because we're relying on working age immigration to be able to afford pensions and the NHS for our elderly due to the aging population.
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    (Original post by jneill)
    I think a Leave vote will only be the beginning, and a further referendum will be called (and will vote to stay in) after more substantive changes are negotiated with the EU.

    You might like to see what a law firm thinks:
    Article 50 isn't obligatory. We could negotiate departure without invoking Article 50.There are different views on whether Article 50 favours the UK or the EU.

    Secondly, please convince that Ottawa is going to be paying the EU and convince me Spaniards will have free movement to Manitoba.
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    (Original post by nulli tertius)
    Article 50 isn't obligatory. We could negotiate departure without invoking Article 50.There are different views on whether Article 50 favours the UK or the EU.

    Secondly, please convince that Ottawa is going to be paying the EU and convince me Spaniards will have free movement to Manitoba.
    Or more simply just vote Remain

    (To be clear, I was answering FoS's OP, I'm a Remainer)
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    Today's interview of Boris Johnson for Leave Campaign:

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    (Original post by jamestg)
    If there's a very low turnout and the result is very close, the government might be able to ignore the result. Also even if the government approves, a bill for the UK to leave the EU could technically not be given Royal Assent - however this hasn't happened since the 1700s.

    Therefore it is extremely unlikely for the government to ignore the result - it would probably spark something serious within the UK if it did happen. Not civil war lol, but a lot of civil unrest. 2011 London riots but across the country.
    The turnout will be high, possibly exceeding the GE.

    (For comparison, the Scottish Referendum exceeded the GE turnout 85% to 71%.)

    And I know it's not quite the same but other EU countries have had referendums with "out" results and subsequently became "in" results after further referendums.
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    (Original post by nulli tertius)
    Article 50 isn't obligatory. We could negotiate departure without invoking Article 50.There are different views on whether Article 50 favours the UK or the EU.

    Secondly, please convince that Ottawa is going to be paying the EU and convince me Spaniards will have free movement to Manitoba.
    I think that law firm needs to hire Nulli. :lol:
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    (Original post by jneill)
    The turnout will be high, possibly exceeding the GE.

    (For comparison, the Scottish Referendum exceeded the GE turnout 85% to 71%.)

    And I know it's not quite the same but other EU countries have had referendums with "out" results and subsequently became "in" results after further referendums.
    I would be ecstatic if we could get a 70-75% turnout. But it shows what a poor form of democracy we have, if we're celebrating only 1 in 4 people not turning out.

    Oh dear... I couldn't stomach even more!
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    Interesting blog article about what would happen on a referendum Leave vote in the FT yesterday.
    http://blogs.ft.com/david-allen-gree...te-for-brexit/

    Rightly, it points out that under the traditions of the UK, a Parliamentary vote would be needed to approve the decision to Brexit and that is by no means assured, with the SNP, most of Labour and some Tories voting to ignore the referendum result. There would be stormy scenes!
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    Personally, I think we would definitely leave the EU by invoking Article 50 if the result is leave but I think there would be an attempt to stay in the EEA by joining the EFTA which would be done by the House of Commons refusing to remove bills such as the European Communities Act 1972, thereby forcing us into EFTA.
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    (Original post by Fullofsurprises)
    Interesting blog article about what would happen on a referendum Leave vote in the FT yesterday.
    http://blogs.ft.com/david-allen-gree...te-for-brexit/

    Rightly, it points out that under the traditions of the UK, a Parliamentary vote would be needed to approve the decision to Brexit and that is by no means assured, with the SNP, most of Labour and some Tories voting to ignore the referendum result. There would be stormy scenes!
    Indeed

    (but paywalled )
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    If the result is 'leave', when do we actually leave?
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    (Original post by surina16)
    If the result is 'leave', when do we actually leave?
    Minimum 2 years afterwards. Probably much longer.

    The Vote Leave campaign team say "May 2020"

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politic...endum-36534802
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    (Original post by jneill)
    I think a Leave vote will only be the beginning, and a further referendum will be called (and will vote to stay in) after more substantive changes are negotiated with the EU.

    You might like to see what a law firm thinks:
    The law firm got a few things wrong it seems. It's Norway that is in EFTA and the Swiss that are in EEA. Turkey is also in one of them, it's not bilateral. Also with the Norway option they only comply with about 25% of directives which are economic related. They don't have a lot of the guff.

    (Original post by Fullofsurprises)
    Interesting blog article about what would happen on a referendum Leave vote in the FT yesterday.
    http://blogs.ft.com/david-allen-gree...te-for-brexit/

    Rightly, it points out that under the traditions of the UK, a Parliamentary vote would be needed to approve the decision to Brexit and that is by no means assured, with the SNP, most of Labour and some Tories voting to ignore the referendum result. There would be stormy scenes!
    Article 50 would be invoked by the PM if we went that way, parliament would come into it when we've concluded negotiations and need to ratify them and exit (probably in the same bill).

    If the parliamentary numbers are not there i wonder if they would take the Abe route and call a general election. The Tories would say 'grant us a majority and we're out', Labour would say, 'remove the Tories and we're in'. Would certainly be interesting to see what Lib-Kip voters would do in that situation.

    (Original post by jneill)
    Minimum 2 years afterwards. Probably much longer.

    The Vote Leave campaign team say "May 2020"

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politic...endum-36534802
    The suggestion of May 2020 ties into my suggestion above. It sounds like they'd want it ratified by a general election.
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    (Original post by Rakas21)
    The law firm got a few things wrong it seems. It's Norway that is in EFTA and the Swiss that are in EEA. Turkey is also in one of them, it's not bilateral. Also with the Norway option they only comply with about 25% of directives which are economic related. They don't have a lot of the guff.
    This says Norway is in both and Swiss are in EFTA...
    http://www.efta.int/about-efta/the-efta-states
    Norway and Switzerland were among the founding Member States of EFTA in 1960. Iceland joined EFTA in 1970, followed by Liechtenstein in 1991. Norway, Iceland (from 1994) and Liechtenstein (from 1995) are also parties to the European Economic Area (EEA) Agreement with the European Union, while Switzerland has signed a set of bilateral agreements with the EU.
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    (Original post by Rakas21)
    The law firm got a few things wrong it seems. It's Norway that is in EFTA and the Swiss that are in EEA. Turkey is also in one of them, it's not bilateral. Also with the Norway option they only comply with about 25% of directives which are economic related. They don't have a lot of the guff.
    Norway is in the EEA - tbh, I think the lawyers were just referring to the popular options as stereotyped in the press, rather than suggesting that one country is in one and one is in the other.
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    (Original post by Rakas21)
    If the parliamentary numbers are not there i wonder if they would take the Abe route and call a general election. The Tories would say 'grant us a majority and we're out', Labour would say, 'remove the Tories and we're in'. Would certainly be interesting to see what Lib-Kip voters would do in that situation.
    Well, the traditional H of C assumption is that the government take it the House as a key bill and then if that falls, there is a vote of no confidence and if it fails, the government accepts the verdict and calls an election. In theory.

    Even in that scenario, Brexit is far from assured - if, as I suspect, Parliament thwarts an immediate attempt at legislation and then the government fell to no confidence, Dave resigns and there's a snap election, there is no guarantee that the new government returned would be any more likely to get it through, or would even want to.

    The thing is, right now, there's a solid Parliamentary majority for Remain.
 
 
 
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