Predictions on N. Ireland, Scottish and Welsh independence?

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Star Scream
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#1
Report Thread starter 11 years ago
#1
Provide your personal predictions on when:

- Each country (N. Ireland, Scotland and Wales) will become independent, or if you believe some or all will never gain independence.

- What event would bring each independence to fruition.

- Whether you agree with each country gaining independence, or not.
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Psyk
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#2
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#2
I don't think the UK will change at all any time soon. Out of those I think the most likely change is for NI to become part of Ireland, and I think there is a legitimate argument for it. But I think it would be a shame for Great Britain to break up.
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Krakatoa
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#3
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#3
Northern Ireland - The peace is still too fragile at the moment to be thinking about the unification of Ireland. I would prefer the six counties breaking free of the crown but no one wants a return to the fear of the troubles.

Wales & Scotland - The nationalist movements within the two have gained momentum but I think thats more of a cultural reaction to the way the two have been assimilated into the Union and a lack of cultural identity.

However the rise of the EU means that economically it could become possible,as the move towards federalism could see the ability of small nation states to emerge,but it would be while until it could ever become a real viable option.
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Hart92
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#4
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#4
neither i think all of them having independence and breaking up the UK will not be a good idea for any of us
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Psyk
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#5
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#5
(Original post by Krakatoa)
However the rise of the EU means that economically it could become possible,as the move towards federalism could see the ability of small nation states to emerge,but it would be while until it could ever become a real viable option.
That reminded me of something I thought of a while ago regarding Northern Ireland. As the EU moves further towards federalism, it will become increasinly irrelevant whether NI is under the jurisdiction of Britain or Ireland. So after a while they'll probably just go with what makes the most sense geographically, i.e. a united Ireland as a part of a European superstate.
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Celtic_Anthony
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#6
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#6
The reunification of Ireland will happen within my lifetime, I doubt that Scotland will ever become independent and Wales certainly won't.
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Krakatoa
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#7
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#7
(Original post by Psyk)
That reminded me of something I thought of a while ago regarding Northern Ireland. As the EU moves further towards federalism, it will become increasinly irrelevant whether NI is under the jurisdiction of Britain or Ireland. So after a while they'll probably just go with what makes the most sense geographically, i.e. a united Ireland as a part of a European superstate.
Yeah I was having this discussion with my Politics teacher the other week. Its quite interesting how the growing momentum towards supranationalism and federalism means that ethnic groups will have a greater ability to move towards independence (well into a federal state).
However maybe a United States of Europe could over time develop into a melting pot which could see every group assimilated into one European identity,though that is very,very hypothetical.
But who knows how it could go.
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patricko
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#8
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#8
(Original post by Celtic_Anthony)
The reunification of Ireland will happen within my lifetime, I doubt that Scotland will ever become independent and Wales certainly won't.
I doubt that northern Ireland will ever become part of Ireland again. Lets face it down south just don't want us. They couldn't afford to support us. The celtic tiger has died and was then kicked around while it was lying on the floor. Public sector work is one of our main employers if not the main one. All those jobs would be lost. The Irish goverment had to make large cuts last year and had to up taxes. And almost half their health care is covered by private health care. Health care isn't free for everyone.

All I can see is huge economic conosequences for N.I and since we are performing better now than we have done in the past why change that?

Not to mention all the trouble it would cause. Have you seen the deadlock about policing?
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Celtic_Anthony
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#9
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#9
(Original post by patricko)
I doubt that northern Ireland will ever become part of Ireland again. Lets face it down south just don't want us. They couldn't afford to support us. The celtic tiger has died and was then kicked around while it was lying on the floor. Public sector work is one of our main employers if not the main one. All those jobs would be lost. The Irish goverment had to make large cuts last year and had to up taxes. And almost half their health care is covered by private health care. Health care isn't free for everyone.

All I can see is huge economic conosequences for N.I and since we are performing better now than we have done in the past why change that?

Not to mention all the trouble it would cause. Have you seen the deadlock about policing?
Mate, you'll know much better than me. I was going on the demographic shift that's occurring and predicted to happen, the older unionists dying off and the nationalists becoming the majority. If the south didn't vote for unification it would be a disgrace, compromising principles for money. They'd be as well changing the name back to the Irish Free State if that happened. Right enough, aren't SF making gains there again?

The economy has its peaks and troughs, as long as there aren't bombs going off things will start to pick up for you. I don't think anyone believes unification is close, so the economic outlook will be vastly different.

And yeah, I have been following the policing issue. Bloody disgrace from the DUP dragging their heels and moving the goalposts time and again. SF are more committed to stable govt. than they are, morons.
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patricko
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#10
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#10
(Original post by Celtic_Anthony)
Mate, you'll know much better than me. I was going on the demographic shift that's occurring and predicted to happen, the older unionists dying off and the nationalists becoming the majority. If the south didn't vote for unification it would be a disgrace, compromising principles for money. They'd be as well changing the name back to the Irish Free State if that happened. Right enough, aren't SF making gains there again?

The economy has its peaks and troughs, as long as there aren't bombs going off things will start to pick up for you. I don't think anyone believes unification is close, so the economic outlook will be vastly different.

And yeah, I have been following the policing issue. Bloody disgrace from the DUP dragging their heels and moving the goalposts time and again. SF are more committed to stable govt. than they are, morons.
I mean parties down south often say they are for unification but its an empty promise really. I can find the pole now but a majority of Irish people did not want a unified Ireland. And without a huge swing I can't see it ever turning back.

Need to see on the new cencius but a majority of people did come from a Protestant back ground in 2001 but it will be intresting to see how this has changed. A 2007 poll stated that 39% of Roman Catholics would like to remain part of the United Kingdom. And something like 66% overall would like to remain part of the UK. But again would be intresting to see how it has changed recently.

I doubt SF will really be pushing for a united Ireland now that they have the chance of becoming the biggest party with a split in the vote betwee the DUP, TUV and UUP
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flugelr
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#11
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#11
Hmm. I don't think Wales will get independance. Scotland again I don't think so. Most people I know who vote SNP do so because they are pretty good for Scotland but I have only ever met two people who actually vote SNP for independance. Well only one as the other guy is 15.

NI is more complicated. I think it is too different to become part of RoI, especially as RoI is (lets face it) a bit rubbish. Even my relatives who live in RoI say so! Feeling in NI are too high for it to happen anytime soon. If SF get in power and try to make it happen I would expect a return of the UVF/UDA etc.
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Conall1
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#12
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#12
(Original post by flugelr)
Hmm. I don't think Wales will get independance. Scotland again I don't think so. Most people I know who vote SNP do so because they are pretty good for Scotland but I have only ever met two people who actually vote SNP for independance. Well only one as the other guy is 15.

NI is more complicated. I think it is too different to become part of RoI, especially as RoI is (lets face it) a bit rubbish. Even my relatives who live in RoI say so! Feeling in NI are too high for it to happen anytime soon. If SF get in power and try to make it happen I would expect a return of the UVF/UDA etc.
If the south is rubbish, the north is a hole (neither are those things, but the south is no worse than the north and in my opinion is a lot more pleasant to live in.) If SF instigate a move towards a united Ireland and the majority agree, the UVF and UDA will have minimal impact, not unless they want to lose their new found 'credibility' after decomissioning their weapons. (They'll deal drugs and terrorise communities the old fashioned way without firearms thank you very much.)
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username350927
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#13
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#13
although seperationg may be better for the respective countries in the short term, in the long term they won't have influence over global politics any more, whereas England would still have the permanent place on UN scurity and also be a major player in EU politics as it already ,also it will be harder for the respective countries to have a voice in matters relating to the EU and they will possibly be pressurised into accepting the Euro. All in all possibly more money, however sacrifice of being relevant in the modern world
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flugelr
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#14
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#14
(Original post by Conall1)
If the south is rubbish, the north is a hole (neither are those things, but the south is no worse than the north and in my opinion is a lot more pleasant to live in.) If SF instigate a move towards a united Ireland and the majority agree, the UVF and UDA will have minimal impact, not unless they want to lose their new found 'credibility' after decomissioning their weapons. (They'll deal drugs and terrorise communities the old fashioned way without firearms thank you very much.)
The North is a bit of a hole yes, but still.

If it seriously looks like SF push for independance then I think the paramilitaries will come back. We all know they have stacks of kit left lying about all over the shop.
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Aramiss18
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#15
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#15
I wish each respective country would put it to a vote - if more than 50% want independence then let them **** off
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TheMeister
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#16
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#16
Northern Ireland could, would and should not survive.
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Teh User
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#17
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#17
(Original post by Celtic_Anthony)
The reunification of Ireland will happen within my lifetime, I doubt that Scotland will ever become independent and Wales certainly won't.
Personally, I never use the term 'reunification'. Theoretically, it could be argued that there has never been one independent state on the isle of Ireland known as Ireland, unless you look at the British influenced state in the 1700s.

I also believe that Protestants/Unionists won't die out. They've stayed alive 90 years, with more supporting the relative dual control we have now.
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Celtic_Anthony
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#18
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#18
(Original post by Teh User)
Personally, I never use the term 'reunification'. Theoretically, it could be argued that there has never been one independent state on the isle of Ireland known as Ireland, unless you look at the British influenced state in the 1700s.

I also believe that Protestants/Unionists won't die out. They've stayed alive 90 years, with more supporting the relative dual control we have now.
I don't particularly care what you would use a chara, there has previously been a united Ireland that has been treated as the one country.

As for the demographic shift, well, it seems pretty inevitable.
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LAURA459
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#19
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#19
The UK is a family, and family stick together. :grin:
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Krakatoa
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#20
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#20
(Original post by LAURA459)
The UK is a family, and family stick together. :grin:
Joseph Fritzl echoed those very same sentiments.
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