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Predictions on N. Ireland, Scottish and Welsh independence?

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Celtic_Anthony

I don't particularly care what you would use a chara, there has previously been a united Ireland that has been treated as the one country.

As for the demographic shift, well, it seems pretty inevitable.

Personally, I don't see an English king imposed on the more traditional Irish clans there before as an independent state, more as a puppet government.

I still don't see a demographic shift. The chances of a united Ireland are slimmer by the year, with more people supporting the political system in place at the moment. British sovereignty, British or Irish citizenship, Northern Irish rule. I see any change in this status as resulting in instability once again.

Reply 21

Conall1

flugelr

The North is a bit of a hole yes, but still.

If it seriously looks like SF push for independance then I think the paramilitaries will come back. We all know they have stacks of kit left lying about all over the shop.

er...I actually said the north wasn't a hole. Have you ever been there? It isn't the seventies anymore.

Even if the paramilitaries did re-emerge they wouldn't have enough of an impact to stop the process.

Reply 22

Fusilero

Around the same time a supranational EU rises to make their independence a bit pointless.

Reply 23

username358506

Ireland, I believe will eventually be reunited. Scotland, as much as I'd like it to be, probably won't and Wales, certainly won't.

Reply 24

L i b

You know, the part of the UK I think is most likely to declare independence is the one you haven't mentioned: England. There are many comparable historical cases where it is the significantly unit in a state/federation/etc which leaves with very little reason. That's how, for example, the USSR collapsed.

Unlike in Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland, the English people rarely consider what Britishness means to them - in a way that Scots, Welsh and Irish don't, the English don't really differentiate between their Home Nations identity and the Union identity. If you're looking for people who would fight to the death for Britain, you will not find them in England!

Ultimately though, I think it's very unlikely. There are a lot of vested interests at play, and in Scotland and Wales the idea of independence has never been at all popular. Northern Ireland is a different kettle of fish, but as long as it stays peaceful and an increasing number of middle class Catholics see the being part of Britain as acceptable to them, few other than the extremists are going to want to upset the balance. At that point, there is only a short distance between apathy and support - and the state is quite often good at propaganda.

As for whether I agree with it - no, I really don't. I am not a nationalist and I will never agree with their politics. Culturally, I also see myself as very much British and Scottish - although, that said, even if there was an independent Scottish state, I wouldn't let it change my identity.

Reply 25

L i b

Aramiss18

I wish each respective country would put it to a vote - if more than 50% want independence then let them **** off :smile:

Why should we let, say, Scotland have a vote on becoming independent of the UK and not, say, Cornwall, Yorkshire or Shetland?

Considering its massive oil wealth, Shetland would be the far more viable country. Would be a bit greedy of it to run off with it all, though.

Reply 26

Spinnerette

I don't think Wales will ever gain independence in my lifetime at least. To me the Welsh Government try to differentiate themselves from England but to me it is becoming more like England I suppose that it feels as if they are 'one' some times.

I can see Scotland becoming indepdendant and NI going back to Ireland though.

I'd like for Wales to be independent to be a country I suppose but I don't think it has enough balls at the moment to be honest.

Reply 27

Renner

Hopefully never, I see myself as British and have no English identity and I don’t want my country broken up.

Reply 28

scanningforlifeforms

I don't think it will, but as a look:

Northern Ireland-still way too much enmity and instability in the area to unify, particularly with people like Paisley still around. Also a much stronger sense of Britishness, IMO, than people on the mainland.

Scotland-probably the most likely, with increasing support for independence and a Nationalist government. Economics are the big argument against, but support for independence is on the rise.

Wales-no, i don't think it ever will. Popualtion simply isn't large enough (smaller than London) and it's been part of Britain for 600 years, so integration has gone so far it's irreversible IMO.

One of the big things that should be considered would be the effect of losing Scotland on England. It's often said (gleefully) by tories that Scotland should leave, as there'd then be a conservative government in perpetuity in England. This, IMO, would be very bad for England, as there is no way the north would stand for being ruled, forever, by the south-Scottish independence could be the catalyst for northern Separatism.

So i'd like the UK to stay together personally.

Reply 29

Psyk

scanningforlifeforms

Wales-no, i don't think it ever will. Popualtion simply isn't large enough (smaller than London) and it's been part of Britain for 600 years, so integration has gone so far it's irreversible IMO.

Well technically there was no British state 600 years ago. Wales was part of the Kingdom of England prior to the creation of the Kingdom of Great Britain in 1707. Wasn't it only in the 1960s that Wales got official recognition as being separate from England?

Reply 30

L i b

scanningforlifeforms

Scotland-probably the most likely, with increasing support for independence and a Nationalist government. Economics are the big argument against, but support for independence is on the rise.

No it isn't. Support for Scottish independence has been falling (in a general trend, obviously, not in every single poll) since the 1990s. Since the SNP took over the Scottish Executive it has been at its lowest ebb for years.

It's often said (gleefully) by tories that Scotland should leave, as there'd then be a conservative government in perpetuity in England. This, IMO, would be very bad for England, as there is no way the north would stand for being ruled, forever, by the south-Scottish independence could be the catalyst for northern Separatism.

If you'll excuse me saying so, that's nonsense. Tories, being part of the Conservative and Unionist Party are ideologically hung on the Union, and quite rightly so. As for divergent politics - the political inclinations of people change. When my parents were young, Scotland was solid Tory territory: indeed, the Tories are the only group to have ever won more than half of the popular vote in Scotland. Even through Margaret Thatcher's time they were polling respectably; it was only in 1997 that Conservative fortunes in Scotland took such a dramatic tumble.

Moreover, the suggestion that a Conservative government would then exist in perpetuity is also rubbish. Discount the votes for Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland and there'd still have been a Labour victory, albeit by a smaller margin, in 1997, 2001 and 2005. Labour won England too.

It is perfectly plausible that, when we are middle aged, Scotland will be voting centre-right and England voting centre-left. There's not some sort of engrained political stance that is passed down from generation to generation.

Reply 31

Nalced

As a pro-Irish, Northern Ireland. I don't think Northern Ireland will ever become a part of Ireland. It'll always be British. Which I don't mind, great advantage for me.

Reply 32

Solano

Each nation should be granted independence when a large majority votes in favour of it in a referendum. There should be a referendum every 10 years so each country can decide its own fate.

Reply 33

Kiwiguy

Star Scream

Provide your personal predictions on when:

- Each country (N. Ireland, Scotland and Wales) will become independent, or if you believe some or all will never gain independence.

- What event would bring each independence to fruition.

- Whether you agree with each country gaining independence, or not.

I dont think that its really going to happen in the next ten years at least.

Reply 34

Psyk

Solano

Each nation should be granted independence when a large majority votes in favour of it in a referendum. There should be a referendum every 10 years so each country can decide its own fate.

The problem with that is, what areas do you apply it to? Does Cornwall get a referendum on it too? What if in the future, other areas decide they don't want to be part of the greater whole anymore?

Reply 35

meenu89

I don't think the UK will break up in any way during my lifetime.

Reply 36

rajandkwameali

I think Ulster will be given more autonomy, and Wales and Scotland will be independent in ten years.

Reply 37

Celtic_Anthony

rajandkwameali

I think Ulster will be given more autonomy, and Wales and Scotland will be independent in ten years.

I don't see Monaghan, Cavan or Donegal being given any more autonomy, to be honest. The other six counties probably will, though, starting with the devolution of policing hopefully.

Reply 38

L i b

Celtic_Anthony

I don't see Monaghan, Cavan or Donegal being given any more autonomy, to be honest. The other six counties probably will, though, starting with the devolution of policing hopefully.

Oi, less of the pedantry or I will start correcting every Celtic-inclined fellow I meet every time they still call their ground "Parkhead".

Reply 39

L i b

Solano

Each nation should be granted independence when a large majority votes in favour of it in a referendum. There should be a referendum every 10 years so each country can decide its own fate.

1. Why? Moreover, what exactly is a nation? Britain can be called a nation, England can be called a nation, Cornwall can be called a nation, Ireland can be called a nation, Northern Ireland can be called a nation. There is not any set criteria, and that is of course why nationalism leads to conflict.

As for ten years or so, that would be a disaster - would you suggest that they continue to hold referendums on merging back into the UK so regularly if they ever become independent? Of course not, it's silly and it's a constitutionally untenable position to be in. Put aside the expense, the uncertainty (which would massively affect outside investment) and all that - the issue would never be taken off the political agenda: that is not remotely what the people of Scotland, Wales or Northern Ireland want.