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UK Parliamentary General Election 2010 watch

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  • View Poll Results: Who will you vote for?
    Labour Party
    112
    20.90%
    Liberal Democrats
    186
    34.70%
    Conservative Party
    130
    24.25%
    United Kingdom Independence Party (UKIP)
    25
    4.66%
    Green Party
    20
    3.73%
    British National Party (BNP)
    13
    2.43%
    Scottish National Party (SNP)
    5
    0.93%
    Plaid Cymru Party
    3
    0.56%
    Other Party (let us know!)
    11
    2.05%
    None of them ('wasted' vote)
    10
    1.87%
    Don't know (floating vote)
    21
    3.92%

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    (Original post by SFsucks)
    If people like yourself who like the Lib-Dem but don't vote for them because you see it as a "wasted vote" stopped that nonsense for the next election the Lib-Dem's would have a much better chance of getting into power.

    Vote for who you agree with, don't vote for someone you half like because of the stupid voting system we have in this country.
    Hit the nail on the head there. If the voting system changes, yes I will vote LD, as i'm sure thousands of people similar to me will. I just see no point in voting for a political party with policies that will never be implemented in the next couple of years- so what are you really voting for, apart from democracy?
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    (Original post by timreynolds)
    Hit the nail on the head there. If the voting system changes, yes I will vote LD, as i'm sure thousands of people similar to me will. I just see no point in voting for a political party with policies that will never be implemented in the next couple of years- so what are you really voting for, apart from democracy?
    Your voting for your view, your belief... it may not seem much in the state of democracy we are in but it should be the biggest part of it.
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    (Original post by timreynolds)
    Hit the nail on the head there. If the voting system changes, yes I will vote LD, as i'm sure thousands of people similar to me will. I just see no point in voting for a political party with policies that will never be implemented in the next couple of years- so what are you really voting for, apart from democracy?

    them, in your constituency. It's the fact that so many take this attitude that the voting system will never be changed.
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    (Original post by felt_monkey)
    I bloody don't. If they do go ahead with the 6th May I'll be 2 days shy of being able to vote :getmecoat:
    Persuade Gordon Brown to hold until June...
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    (Original post by SFsucks)
    Your voting for your view, your belief... it may not seem much in the state of democracy we are in but it should be the biggest part of it.
    Yes but when our biggest form of sovereignty, giving power to the people, is resticted by a voiting system which channels all of this democratic deficit to the 2 main parties- then what choice do we really have?
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    (Original post by annab1684)
    them, in your constituency. It's the fact that so many take this attitude that the voting system will never be changed.
    Quite the opposite. The fact that many people like me are bemused, constrained and frustrated by this system, forcing our will to the will of the 2 major parties, will see its change.
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    (Original post by timreynolds)
    Yes but when our biggest form of sovereignty, giving power to the people, is resticted by a voiting system which channels all of this democratic deficit to the 2 main parties- then what choice do we really have?
    Not much but with the way things are at the moment with the Hung parliament the Lib-dem have the best chance of bring in PR so it is best not to waste this chance.
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    (Original post by SFsucks)
    Not much but with the way things are at the moment with the Hung parliament the Lib-dem have the best chance of bring in PR so it is best not to waste this chance.

    this is what I meant.
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    (Original post by SFsucks)
    Not much but with the way things are at the moment with the Hung parliament the Lib-dem have the best chance of bring in PR so it is best not to waste this chance.
    And the voting system of proportional representation along with the voting patterns of this country will cause weak coalitions 99 times out of 100, which will be worse than having a hung parliament, ergo PR is broken. I agree, the bias of FPP isn't what everyone thinks is fair and the alternative voting proposal suggested by the Electoral Reform Committee isn't ideal either, but they're both better than pure PR for all intents and purposes witht he current UK demographic of multiple parties.

    Besides, Clegg stted recently that they weren't going to force PR as one of their requirements of policy.

    Personally, I'd like general elections under larger, multi-MP constituencies with a system that operates under the system of single transferrable vote, (I.e. using Schultze's draft method). It isn't going to happen that way.

    In this case, however, I am floating with a slight wind blowing me towards the Tories.
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    The most important election since 1979 is due to be announced for 06/05/2010 tomorrow, nearly five years to the day since Labour were returned for a third term. It bears striking similarities to the one of '79 - we're in a recession, trade unions are striking, and there's a general air of disgruntlement.

    What are everyone's thoughts/predictions?

    Personally, I think we're looking at a similar situation to 1974. Labour will be returned with a tiny majority (5-10) and a lot of very wonky marginal seats with really small turnouts. However, the Tories will benefit from the same problem as the working class have been shown to be the most politically apathetic, plus their vote is splintered between Labour and the English Democrats/BNP. Conservatives will have the same problem, however, in Tory voters defecting to the English Democrats and UKIP.

    However, especially in the north east and the south west, the Lib Dems will make gains as people who would never vote Tory will go to the third party. I reckon also that the Greens could get their first seat.

    In the devolved regions, disgruntlement with government from Westminster will lead to gains for Plaid and the SNP, with Tory gains in Wales but not in Scotland. In Northern Ireland, Sinn Fein and the UUP will split the vote, with the pro-Labour SDLP losing seats.

    Overall, my prediction of the Parliament for 2010 would be:

    Seats: 646
    Labour: 251 (-105)
    Conservative: 246 (+48)
    Lib Dem: 90 (+28)
    UKIP: 15 (+15)
    SNP: 8 (+2)
    Plaid Cymru: 8 (+5)
    Sinn Fein: 7 (+2)
    UUP: 6 (+5)
    DUP: 6 (-3)
    Independents: 3 (+1)
    BNP: 2 (+2)
    English Democrats: 2 (+2)
    SDLP: 1 (-2)
    Green Party: 1 (+1)
    Respect: 0 (-1)

    Post-election, we'll have one of two options:
    1. The Lib Dems form a coalition with Labour to form a majority government.
    2. The Lib Dems form a coalition with the Conservatives to form a minority government.
    3. The Lib Dems refuse to unite with either, and we have another election in December.
    4. The Conservatives ally with UKIP, the DUP and the English Democrats to form a minority government for 1-2 years.

    I think the most likely is either 2 or 3, but we'll just have to wait and see. Feel free to make your own predictions (or criticise mine!)
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    (Original post by LGF92)
    The most important election since 1979 is due to be announced for 06/05/2010 tomorrow, nearly five years to the day since Labour were returned for a third term. It bears striking similarities to the one of '79 - we're in a recession, trade unions are striking, and there's a general air of disgruntlement.

    What are everyone's thoughts/predictions?

    Personally, I think we're looking at a similar situation to 1974. Labour will be returned with a tiny majority (5-10) and a lot of very wonky marginal seats with really small turnouts. However, the Tories will benefit from the same problem as the working class have been shown to be the most politically apathetic, plus their vote is splintered between Labour and the English Democrats/BNP. Conservatives will have the same problem, however, in Tory voters defecting to the English Democrats and UKIP.

    However, especially in the north east and the south west, the Lib Dems will make gains as people who would never vote Tory will go to the third party. I reckon also that the Greens could get their first seat.

    In the devolved regions, disgruntlement with government from Westminster will lead to gains for Plaid and the SNP, with Tory gains in Wales but not in Scotland. In Northern Ireland, Sinn Fein and the UUP will split the vote, with the pro-Labour SDLP losing seats.

    Overall, my prediction of the Parliament for 2010 would be:

    Seats: 646
    Labour: 251 (-105)
    Conservative: 246 (+48)
    Lib Dem: 90 (+28)
    UKIP: 15 (+15)
    SNP: 8 (+2)
    Plaid Cymru: 8 (+5)
    Sinn Fein: 7 (+2)
    UUP: 6 (+5)
    DUP: 6 (-3)
    Independents: 3 (+1)
    BNP: 2 (+2)
    English Democrats: 2 (+2)
    SDLP: 1 (-2)
    Green Party: 1 (+1)
    Respect: 0 (-1)

    Post-election, we'll have one of two options:
    1. The Lib Dems form a coalition with Labour to form a majority government.
    2. The Lib Dems form a coalition with the Conservatives to form a minority government.
    3. The Lib Dems refuse to unite with either, and we have another election in December.
    4. The Conservatives ally with UKIP, the DUP and the English Democrats to form a minority government for 1-2 years.

    I think the most likely is either 2 or 3, but we'll just have to wait and see. Feel free to make your own predictions (or criticise mine!)
    Let me get this straight, you think that because everyone knows this will be a tight run thing between the two major parties that that means the Lib Dems will increase the number of seats that have by 40%?

    What make you think that? Far fewer people can name their leader now compared to 5 years ago, the policys are far less clear, so just why would that happen?

    I could easily dispute the rest but that made the least sense...
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    (Original post by Quady)
    Let me get this straight, you think that because everyone knows this will be a tight run thing between the two major parties that that means the Lib Dems will increase the number of seats that have by 40%?

    What make you think that? Far fewer people can name their leader now compared to 5 years ago, the policys are far less clear, so just why would that happen?

    I could easily dispute the rest but that made the least sense...
    When people get disgruntled with both main parties and there's not much "poverty" per se, they go to the Lib Dems as a reasonable option. That's regions such as the north-east, the south-west, the South Midlands, Lincolnshire, Leicestershire...etc.
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    (Original post by LGF92)
    When people get disgruntled with both main parties and there's not much "poverty" per se, they go to the Lib Dems as a reasonable option. That's regions such as the north-east, the south-west, the South Midlands, Lincolnshire, Leicestershire...etc.
    They do when they think the election will be conclusive, when they think it will be close they back the horse they would prefer out of the two.

    Bristol West for example, surely that will go back to the Tories?
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    (Original post by Quady)
    They do when they think the election will be conclusive, when they think it will be close they back the horse they would prefer out of the two.

    Bristol West for example, surely that will go back to the Tories?
    I think it's impossible to say on a seat-by-seat basis so early in the campaign. We'll have to see what they unveil from their respective bags of tricks as to what will appeal to whom.
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    (Original post by LGF92)
    I think it's impossible to say on a seat-by-seat basis so early in the campaign. We'll have to see what they unveil from their respective bags of tricks as to what will appeal to whom.
    I agree, it as only an example of where I see lib dem votes going back to the Tories in order to get Labour out.

    We'll see, I just don't buy it.

    btw - put some money against a Tory outright win, you'd make a killing on spread betting since the market clearly believes in a small Tory majority.
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    You know TSR has these freshers blogs and ****...why don't politics do something with first time voters, their decision leading up to the election, voting, and the aftermath
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    (Original post by LGF92)
    The most important election since 1979 is due to be announced for 06/05/2010 tomorrow, nearly five years to the day since Labour were returned for a third term. It bears striking similarities to the one of '79 - we're in a recession, trade unions are striking, and there's a general air of disgruntlement.

    What are everyone's thoughts/predictions?

    Personally, I think we're looking at a similar situation to 1974. Labour will be returned with a tiny majority (5-10) and a lot of very wonky marginal seats with really small turnouts. However, the Tories will benefit from the same problem as the working class have been shown to be the most politically apathetic, plus their vote is splintered between Labour and the English Democrats/BNP. Conservatives will have the same problem, however, in Tory voters defecting to the English Democrats and UKIP.

    However, especially in the north east and the south west, the Lib Dems will make gains as people who would never vote Tory will go to the third party. I reckon also that the Greens could get their first seat.

    In the devolved regions, disgruntlement with government from Westminster will lead to gains for Plaid and the SNP, with Tory gains in Wales but not in Scotland. In Northern Ireland, Sinn Fein and the UUP will split the vote, with the pro-Labour SDLP losing seats.

    Overall, my prediction of the Parliament for 2010 would be:

    Seats: 646
    Labour: 251 (-105)
    Conservative: 246 (+48)
    Lib Dem: 90 (+28)
    UKIP: 15 (+15)
    SNP: 8 (+2)
    Plaid Cymru: 8 (+5)
    Sinn Fein: 7 (+2)
    UUP: 6 (+5)
    DUP: 6 (-3)
    Independents: 3 (+1)
    BNP: 2 (+2)
    English Democrats: 2 (+2)
    SDLP: 1 (-2)
    Green Party: 1 (+1)
    Respect: 0 (-1)

    Post-election, we'll have one of two options:
    1. The Lib Dems form a coalition with Labour to form a majority government.
    2. The Lib Dems form a coalition with the Conservatives to form a minority government.
    3. The Lib Dems refuse to unite with either, and we have another election in December.
    4. The Conservatives ally with UKIP, the DUP and the English Democrats to form a minority government for 1-2 years.

    I think the most likely is either 2 or 3, but we'll just have to wait and see. Feel free to make your own predictions (or criticise mine!)
    There's 650 seats up for grabs this election, not 646 btw. I think you've been very optimistic on the Lib Dem/UKIP front. For me, I don't doubt the Tories will be the largest party, and I think they will have a majority. I'll stick my neck out and go with some predictions:

    Total: 650
    Tories: 345
    Labour: 219
    Lib Dem: 53
    Others: 37
    Leaving a majority of 40.

    I'd put money on BNP, English Democrats and UKIP not getting a seat, personally. Perhaps UKIP might get 1 or 2 at a push. Lib Dems getting 90? That's crazy based on current polling.
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    (Original post by LGF92)
    Plaid Cymru: 8 (+5)
    I'm just singling this out because Plaid is the only political party I can really comment on, in this context. I was just wondering how you came to this conclusion? Personally, I'd predict a gain of 2 seats (Ceredigion and Anglesey), with the possibility of another 2 (Aberconwy and Llanelli). Plaid would be facing tough opposition in the latter two - they have a huge Labour majority to overturn in Llanelli, and they'd be facing stiff opposition from the Conservatives in Aberconwy. I find it hugely unlikely that they will get five - I presume you're suggesting they could make a breakthrough in the South Wales Valleys? Still, here's to hoping. I'd love a gain of five seats.
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    (Original post by Kaiser MacCleg)
    I'm just singling this out because Plaid is the only political party I can really comment on, in this context. I was just wondering how you came to this conclusion? Personally, I'd predict a gain of 2 seats (Ceredigion and Anglesey), with the possibility of another 2 (Aberconwy and Llanelli). Plaid would be facing tough opposition in the latter two - they have a huge Labour majority to overturn in Llanelli, and they'd be facing stiff opposition from the Conservatives in Aberconwy. I find it hugely unlikely that they will get five - I presume you're suggesting they could make a breakthrough in the South Wales Valleys? Still, here's to hoping. I'd love a gain of five seats.
    I think with the recession Wales is going through, even parts of Glamorgan could start thinking that maybe Labour aren't as shrewd as they seem.
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    Did anyone watch those speeches by the Labour, Tory and LD leaders this morning? Although Nick Clegg's did get cut short, I thought David Cameron gave a very powerful speech, he is clearly very motivated and I have a feeling he might have the edge needed to win - although obviously it's too early to say for sure. It really made me think about voting Tory, though.

    When I went on the Vote for Policies website, my results showed that I should vote for the Liberal Democrats (3/8 policies I chose were theirs; for the other 5, I chose one policy from each of the other five parties). I have been thinking about voting for them, thus I'll be keeping a close eye on them... but David's speech... :eek3:
 
 
 
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