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UK Parliamentary General Election 2010 watch

  • View Poll Results: Who will you vote for?
    Labour Party
    112
    20.90%
    Liberal Democrats
    186
    34.70%
    Conservative Party
    130
    24.25%
    United Kingdom Independence Party (UKIP)
    25
    4.66%
    Green Party
    20
    3.73%
    British National Party (BNP)
    13
    2.43%
    Scottish National Party (SNP)
    5
    0.93%
    Plaid Cymru Party
    3
    0.56%
    Other Party (let us know!)
    11
    2.05%
    None of them ('wasted' vote)
    10
    1.87%
    Don't know (floating vote)
    21
    3.92%

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    http://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/

    It's preditction as of posting is:

    Party Pred Votes Pred Seats
    CON 37.42% 300
    LAB 29.47% 262
    LIB 20.59% 55
    NAT 2.22% 12
    MIN 10.30% 21

    This would leave the Conervatives 26 short of a majority vote, and is based on the new boundaries implemented in 2006.

    Thoughts?
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    Uck. I woke up this morning to that ******* horrible toff Cameron talking on my radio. God I hope that mentally retarded Eton inbred chinless upperclass scumbag doesn't win the election.
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    I'm in two minds.. our constituency has an awesome proactive Lib Dem MP who is brilliant so I'd like to vote for him, but I want the Tories to get in..
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    (Original post by xconfetti)
    I'm in two minds.. our constituency has an awesome proactive Lib Dem MP who is brilliant so I'd like to vote for him, but I want the Tories to get in..
    Why would you want an Old Etonian to get in?

    Are you endorsing the sad fact that going to a top private school gives people a pass into the top jobs?
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    (Original post by mel0n)
    Aren't most who vote for lib dems basically.. wasting a vote? :erm:
    No they are not. A poll a few years ago said that 55% of people in the UK would vote for the Liberal Democrats if they had a chance of getting in power. :facepalm:

    If people voted for them then they would get in like said poll says so.
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    (Original post by Teveth)
    Are you endorsing the sad fact that going to a top private school gives people a pass into the top jobs?
    No. Are you saying that because someone went to a private school they shouldn't have the top jobs?

    They're equally as bad, snobbery and inverse snobbery.
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    (Original post by Teveth)
    Uck. I woke up this morning to that ******* horrible toff Cameron talking on my radio. God I hope that mentally retarded Eton inbred chinless upperclass scumbag doesn't win the election.
    Unpleasant pond-life like you sum up why I hate the left wing.
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    All very exciting, will be interesting what university is like when everyone goes back after Easter...
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    (Original post by Teveth)
    Why would you want an Old Etonian to get in?

    Are you endorsing the sad fact that going to a top private school gives people a pass into the top jobs?
    You vile left wingers spreading your vile class warfare rubbish. So back to whatever gutter you came from peasant :rolleyes:
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    Now it's been announced, I thought I'd deck out the support.
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    (Original post by Teaddict)
    You vile left wingers spreading your vile class warfare rubbish. So back to whatever gutter you came from peasant :rolleyes:
    Snob
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    (Original post by ak56)
    Unpleasant pond-life like you sum up why I hate the left wing.
    Unpleasant? I'll have you know I'm about as pleasant as they come. Pleasant to my fellow humanbeings, that is. Tories aren't humanbeings, they're sub human rats. Selfishness, greed, homophobia, racism...it's all there.
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    (Original post by Teveth)
    Unpleasant? I'll have you know I'm about as pleasant as they come. Pleasant to my fellow humanbeings, that is. Tories aren't humanbeings, they're sub human rats. Selfishness, greed, homophobia, racism...it's all there.
    Sorry but you cannot accuse Tories across Britain of being homophobic... Half of the damn Tory party is gay for crying out loud...
    If they aren't gay they have some weird sexual secret they don't want to share...

    But aside from that, aspiration and success is not greed or selfishness.
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    (Original post by Teaddict)
    Sorry but you cannot accuse Tories across Britain of being homophobic... Half of the damn Tory party is gay for crying out loud...
    If they aren't gay they have some weird sexual secret they don't want to share...

    But aside from that, aspiration and success is not greed or selfishness.
    First of all I don't think "half of them" are gay. Secondly he has purposely increased the amount of gay tories just so he can say: "Look at us! We have more gay members than the other parties therefore we're the most Liberal, non homophobic and the best!". It's pathetic...
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    The constant 'Labour are *******' rubbish on the Tories site gets old after a while. 'We can't go on like this' seems to appear at the end of every statement they make too. :rolleyes:
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    (Original post by xXedixXx)
    First of all I don't think "half of them" are gay. Secondly he has purposely increased the amount of gay tories just so he can say: "Look at us! We have more gay members than the other parties therefore we're the most Liberal, non homophobic and the best!". It's pathetic...
    Firstly, I was actually joking. But in all seriousness there has always been a lot of gay people in the Tory party
    Secondly, he has done that with ethnic minorities... gays in the Tory party is about as common as cheese on toast.
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    My area (Nottingham) has two marginal seats and another fours areas that could change hands. Labour, Liberals or the Tories could win in any of them. Its going to be pretty tight up here.
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    I just realised how racist UKIP is......!!!!!!
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    (Original post by Tathrim)
    http://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/

    It's preditction as of posting is:

    Party Pred Votes Pred Seats
    CON 37.42% 300
    LAB 29.47% 262
    LIB 20.59% 55
    NAT 2.22% 12
    MIN 10.30% 21

    This would leave the Conervatives 26 short of a majority vote, and is based on the new boundaries implemented in 2006.

    Thoughts?
    Interesting, it seems either Labour will surprise us by doing rather well, as in having a chance of staying in in the interiim, even if this mean an election in March next year. I usually use UK Elect (software I've bought myself) and I find that good because I have info from elections going back a fair bit, and I can get a map of my forecast, and I can go through all 650 results to find the notional results in the campaign I can also put a simple swing in and I get results from that in the case you've mentioned 5% from Lab-Con

    Using your percentages I get this

    CON 292 (+82 based on notional result)
    LAB 269 (-80)
    LIB DEM 55 (-7)
    OTH 34 (+5) from which come 7 SNP and 5 Plaid members. It also suggests the BNP would not get a seat, 0.69% for them.

    This result would suggest Cameron could govern on supply and confidence with the Others, as all 34 would give Cons a majority without having to compromise to Labour or the Lib Dems

    Using the 5% Swing from Labour-Conservative I get

    CON 287 (+77)
    LAB 275 (-74)
    LIB DEM 56 (-6)
    OTH 32 (+3) from which are 6 SNP and 4 Plaid. But there still is no BNP representation who in both polls get the same share.

    This result makes things a whole lot tighter and would result if either Brown or Cameron wanted a coalition majority, i.e. a coalition to get them over 326 would have to work with Lib Dems.


    My prediction, and as its with 0 result in is this

    CON 290-315
    LAB 255-280
    LD 30-55
    OTH 25-50

    Obviously a huge range at the moment, and really as the polls come in we might have a tight race, or Cameron might get closer to 326.
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    The Tories need a national swing of 8.50% to gain a significant majority in the House of Commons, even if the swing is 1.50 - 2.49% to the Tories it is a Labour victory. Anything between 2.50 - 8.40% is a Hung Parliament.
 
 
 
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