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UK Parliamentary General Election 2010 Watch

  • View Poll Results: Who will you vote for?
    Labour Party
    112
    20.90%
    Liberal Democrats
    186
    34.70%
    Conservative Party
    130
    24.25%
    United Kingdom Independence Party (UKIP)
    25
    4.66%
    Green Party
    20
    3.73%
    British National Party (BNP)
    13
    2.43%
    Scottish National Party (SNP)
    5
    0.93%
    Plaid Cymru Party
    3
    0.56%
    Other Party (let us know!)
    11
    2.05%
    None of them ('wasted' vote)
    10
    1.87%
    Don't know (floating vote)
    21
    3.92%

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    I'm still a floating voter at the moment, but I have decided that the Conservatives policy regarding the NHS would be detrimental to the overall efficiency of hospitals and surgeries. (The conservatives policy intends to revert to the Thatcherist non-business form of the service - while I agree that doctors will be less stressed and focus more on patient care, the NHS will become less efficient so less patients will be treated, waiting times will increase and chaos will ensue.)
    It seems that a lot of people on this forum are voting Lib Dem - I can see why this would be excellent because of their Education policies but I can see very little work actually being done if the Lib Dems get into power as most of their more controversial ideas will strike a chord with both Labour and Conservatives - and likely be rejected (plus they may just be in a state of shock for getting into power - but that is beside the point)
    My Granddad's opinion is that the Green Party have been a particular benefit to his local constituency. I do not know much about the GP but they have little impact on my local area - so it would be a wasted vote in my area. The Conservatives are in power at the moment, but many are disillusioned by our local MP being sacked during the expenses scandal, so the votes here may swing the other way. I can't wait to find out! :awesome:
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    (Original post by Jacky_B)
    The Tories need a national swing of 8.50% to gain a significant majority in the House of Commons, even if the swing is 1.50 - 2.49% to the Tories it is a Labour victory. Anything between 2.50 - 8.40% is a Hung Parliament.
    Yesterday the BBC declared that the Tories need a swing of 6.5%-7% to win a small majority.
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    Probably going to vote Lib Dem because I like the look of Cable: he's literal and to-the-point. Of course, it could also change.
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    (Original post by JonCha)
    Probably going to vote Lib Dem because I like the look of Cable: he's literal and to-the-point. Of course, it could also change.
    Don't vote for the leader. Vote for the policies of the party.
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    (Original post by xXedixXx)
    Don't vote for the leader. Vote for the policies of the party.
    Vince Cable?
    I thought it was Nick Clegg but oh well...

    Cable isn't the leader :P:woo:
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    (Original post by Teaddict)
    Yesterday the BBC declared that the Tories need a swing of 6.5%-7% to win a small majority.
    Either way, that is a big ask for them to gain that many without potentially losing some seats to Labour or the Lib Dems.
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    (Original post by Jacky_B)
    Either way, that is a big ask for them to gain that many without potentially losing some seats to Labour or the Lib Dems.
    Indeed.
    Especially considering the electoral system works against the Conservatives and the electoral system chosen by Labour (AV) is even less proportional and works against the Conservatives even more.

    This is why the Conservatives should propose the Single Transferable Vote or the Additional Member System or this AV+ I hear about...
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    Vote HUNG PARLIAMENT.
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    (Original post by Matthew_Lowson)
    Interesting, it seems either Labour will surprise us by doing rather well, as in having a chance of staying in in the interiim, even if this mean an election in March next year. I usually use UK Elect (software I've bought myself) and I find that good because I have info from elections going back a fair bit, and I can get a map of my forecast, and I can go through all 650 results to find the notional results in the campaign I can also put a simple swing in and I get results from that in the case you've mentioned 5% from Lab-Con

    Using your percentages I get this

    CON 292 (+82 based on notional result)
    LAB 269 (-80)
    LIB DEM 55 (-7)
    OTH 34 (+5) from which come 7 SNP and 5 Plaid members. It also suggests the BNP would not get a seat, 0.69% for them.

    This result would suggest Cameron could govern on supply and confidence with the Others, as all 34 would give Cons a majority without having to compromise to Labour or the Lib Dems

    Using the 5% Swing from Labour-Conservative I get

    CON 287 (+77)
    LAB 275 (-74)
    LIB DEM 56 (-6)
    OTH 32 (+3) from which are 6 SNP and 4 Plaid. But there still is no BNP representation who in both polls get the same share.

    This result makes things a whole lot tighter and would result if either Brown or Cameron wanted a coalition majority, i.e. a coalition to get them over 326 would have to work with Lib Dems.


    My prediction, and as its with 0 result in is this

    CON 290-315
    LAB 255-280
    LD 30-55
    OTH 25-50

    Obviously a huge range at the moment, and really as the polls come in we might have a tight race, or Cameron might get closer to 326.
    Another interesting prediction.

    With the BBC's predictions of the percentages I initially found, we get:

    CON 298
    LAB 266
    LIB 57
    OTH 29

    We also have predictions form the latest polls

    Populus (8 April)
    CON 301
    LAB 270
    LIB 52
    OTH 27

    Harris (9 April)
    CON 309
    LAB 255
    LIB 57
    OTH 29

    YouGov (9 April)
    CON 322
    LAB 260
    LIB 40
    OTH 28

    Also of intrest, the first constituency poll, found here: http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/2573

    It shows that the margin for Labour has increased. Have we more extremes to come?
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    (Original post by Teaddict)
    Indeed.
    Especially considering the electoral system works against the Conservatives and the electoral system chosen by Labour (AV) is even less proportional and works against the Conservatives even more.

    This is why the Conservatives should propose the Single Transferable Vote or the Additional Member System or this AV+ I hear about...

    Apologies for the double post.

    Funny you say that, the Conservatives have no plans to introduce STV, but the Lib Dems do.
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    (Original post by Tathrim)
    Apologies for the double post.

    Funny you say that, the Conservatives have no plans to introduce STV, but the Lib Dems do.
    Indeed. The Liberal Democrats have a few policies I agree with, however, I won't be voting for them on the basis of a couple of decent policies.
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    Me neither, I'm disenfranchised though, Henley's Boris' old seat, and the Conervatives won by a landslide in the by-election.
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    (Original post by Tathrim)
    Me neither, I'm disenfranchised though, Henley's Boris' old seat, and the Conervatives won by a landslide in the by-election.
    Which was surprising how exactly...?
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    As a rule, I'll probably vote Labour at the general election, Lib Dem at the local election and Green at European level.

    So, on the 6th May I will probably vote Labour. Yes, they have some major major faults, and there policy in the Home Department especially I often disagree with, but they are the 'lesser' of two evils. Not that it will dent the Tory landslide that will undoubtably befall my constituency. Ideally I wouldn't vote Lib Dem because I'm not really a fan, but I know our local councillor, has represented us well for 20 odd years and he seems a good guy so I vote for him anyway.
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    (Original post by Quady)
    Which was surprising how exactly...?
    It wasn't surprising, I was merely making an observation that the system is well and truly flawed.
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    Lib Dem.

    Will also vote for them in the local election. Luckily not a wasted vote in my area as I currently have a Lib Dem MP - and want to keep it that way.
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    I'm seriously stuck between the Liberal Democrats and Labour

    Problem is my area isn't very Lib Dem (it would need more than a 20% swing for it to fall into Lib Dem hands) so I risk if not enough vote for them it being a wasted vote, Labour currently hold the majority but I would rather it was Lib Dem.

    I have considered voting Green as well but the chances of them winning here are very slim indeed.

    The last thing I want is the Tories getting in.
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    (Original post by Jacky_B)
    The last thing I want is the Tories getting in.
    + 1

    Vote Labour!
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    (Original post by Jacky_B)
    I'm seriously stuck between the Liberal Democrats and Labour

    Problem is my area isn't very Lib Dem (it would need more than a 20% swing for it to fall into Lib Dem hands) so I risk if not enough vote for them it being a wasted vote, Labour currently hold the majority but I would rather it was Lib Dem.

    I have considered voting Green as well but the chances of them winning here are very slim indeed.

    The last thing I want is the Tories getting in.
    Vote Lib-Dem or Green then... vote for who you want to vote for... don't vote for someone you don't want to vote for.
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    (Original post by SFsucks)
    Vote Lib-Dem or Green then... vote for who you want to vote for... don't vote for someone you don't want to vote for.
    You are right, its time to stop this tactical voting and vote for what we believe in.

    I shall be voting Lib Dem.
 
 
 
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