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    Quite simply, who do you believe will do the best in Scotland in the General Election (That doesn't limit itself to seat tally, but the share of the vote too).

    I am going to stake my money on the SNP doing the best in terms of performance and end result.

    I think they should double their vote and at least treble their seat tally.

    I think all of the SNP seats (bar perhaps Glasgow East - but I am hopeful that the seat can be defended against that horrible Curran woman) will be retained.

    In 2005, the SNP narrowly came third ahead of the Conservatives ; a result I find most horrifying when I look back in hindsight. I think it was something around 17%, with the Tories on 16%. What a horrible result. I think the SNP should be able to scrape by with around 30-33% of the vote - perhaps beating Labour in the share of the vote, and hopefully seat Tally.

    Several seats, traditionally Labour, can be won by the SNP if enough effort is put in. One seat in particular in my home region will be much visited by myself as I attempt to oust the current Labour MP (whom I funnily enough shook hands with reluctantly in front of a 300+ crowd around a year after the result). Dundee West and Ochil and South Perthshire should be easily won. And Stirling? I have a good feeling about it. If Anne MacGuire holds on in this seat, it will be a historic low share of the vote for a winning candidate (around 19-24%). The SNP must come from 4th, a mean feat. But they are only 10% away from the incumbent if her vote falls as predicted.


    Here are some seats I believe can be won by the SNP:

    Dundee West
    Ochil and South Perthshire
    Glenrothes (I have a gut feeling about this seat on a second attempt minus "Postal Ballots")
    Stirling
    Edinburgh North and Leith
    Edinburgh East (the candidate addressed my branch in my absence!)
    Glasgow North (SNP in a better position compared to Stirling)
    Gordon
    Aberdeen North
    Aberdeen South
    Livingston
    Kilmarnock and Loudon
    Dunfermline and West Fife
    Argyll and Bute


    Looking forward to being taunted/congratulated on my predictions come VE day!
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    The SNP aren't really well-poised to do spectacularly. Firstly, remember that in the 2007 Scottish Parliamentary elections they mostly hoovered up the vote lost by the small parties like the SSP and the Greens. Major inroads were not made into the Labour vote. They also still relied very much on the regional list members rather than having them elected in the constituencies.

    The Lib Dems are destined to do rather worse than they did in 2005. I suppose some support may come from there.

    However keep in mind that, nationally, it is a two-party squeeze between Labour and the Conservatives. People who want change will know that the SNP cannot deliver it at Westminster, and those (and there are a few in Scotland, particularly amongst Scots Nats) who dislike the Conservatives will be inclined to back Labour.

    Moreover, if you examine the swings required in certain constituencies alone, that illuminates nothing. In parts of Scotland, particularly the west, the SNP are fairly irrelevant. They simply have not made cultural inroads to the vote there, and haven't particularly done a good job in government of wooing these areas. Labour, for example, is doing quite a job of portraying the SNP as being uninterested in Glasgow and its environs.

    Still, the SNP will increase their seat tally, I have little doubt of that. They'll probably beat their 1974 record of 11 seats, but I don't imagine it'll be by much. Labour will probably continue to do relatively well, and I imagine will have a clear plurality of seats, with a smaller gap between the SNP in the popular vote.

    As for the Tories, hmm... I really don't know. A number of their winnable seats are SNP - Perth and North Perthshire being one that comes to mind. I think they certainly have a decent chance of unseating the SNP in Angus.

    I'm not sure why you think Stirling could possibly be won by the SNP. They're in fourth place with 5,500 votes. Labour is on 15,900 and the Tories (for whom it was traditionally a safe seat until 1997) are on 11,000.
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    I feel that the SNP will surprise everyone. 2005 was fairly dismal. I was shocked when I looked at the results late last year - just ahead of the Tories by around 1% for gods sake! If we see a repeat of Glenrothes in terms of the SNP vote increase (accompanied by a normal decline in the Labour party vote once postal ballots have been excluded), I think they can do very well.

    I would firstly indicate you towards the 2009 Euros and the 2007 Scottish Parliament Elections - the SNP increased their vote spectacularly after a defeat, in this case the Glenrothes by-election and the 2005 General Election (or Dunfermline By-election).

    I would agree with you that the Libs will do worse than 2005 - I think they should lose several seats.

    I would oppose what you say about a "National two-party squeeze". One, opinion polls show that the Conservatives (who I have no hatchet against) have not made any major progress since 2005. Two, in all three Scottish by-elections since 2005 the Tories have only hovered (at best) around 5% of the vote.

    2005 was a dismal year. I think the SNP will achieve a very high swing against Labour in all seats held by them (same with the Libs). Perhaps double the Lab-Tory Swing across the UK.

    I predict that the SNP will almost treble their seat tally. Ignore Labour's "Opinion Polls" (probably carried out on their members), and await the national opinion poll in the General Election. Just wait for seats like Glenrothes - my instinct tells me that it can be taken with the exclusion of "Postal ballots". I have never felt so con

    I think that the Tories will increase their vote in the two seats you refer to, but the SNP will increase their vote more (from Lab-Lib voters).


    I think that the SNP can win Stirling because of instinct. I just feel that it is possible. Put it this way - we can be assured of Maguire losing her seat with ease. Either the SNP or Conservatives will win it, with the loser of the two coming a good second. And also, the SNP won the Scottish Parliament seat (don't know if the boundaries have similarities). But anyway, it indicates that the SNP could take it if they work as hard as they can for it. I may even go along and fight for it on my "Instinct Guide of Scotland", which will consist of...four constituencies.
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    I don't think it matters who I vote for in my constituency...

    They'll do better than they ever have, but I think overall Labour will still do better in Scotland, because it's pretty much viewed as a two horse race. Not that I'm the best person to ask, though.
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    Glasgow North East by election showed how much support Labour still have,considering the normal by election swing.

    Glasgow East should be won back as perhaps will Dundee East,even if they lose Ochil. Many Scots will vote SNP in SNP/Tory marginals but there aren't really that many Labour/Tory scottish marginals.
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    SNP's share of the vote is likely to increase a lot, but I doubt it will translate into many new seats - they'll win the more marginal ones but there is no chance they will break any safe labour seats, nobody can break those.

    I do hope that Scotland begins to get over its beef with the conservatives, and that the tories can win a few seats in Scotland. Whether that's likely or not, I don't know.
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    In think that Scotland will be and probably for a very long time be a Labour stronghold thorughout. The SNP will make a few gains, but it's more likely they will gain seats off the Lib Dems.

    It is very unlikely that the Conservatives will make any gains, lucky to gain 1 really.
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    Let me address one thing.

    Glasgow North East was a by-election, and it is a vastly different seat compared to both Glasgow East and Glenrothes in terms of educational accomplishments, wealth and other common denominators. In other words, traditional Labour territory.

    Glasgow East and Glenrothes both saw great swings to the SNP and the vote share did grow greatly by (at a minimum) 50% compared to 2005.

    I believe, frankly, that the latter two by-elections were down to some dodgy dealing. You know what I mean. "Postal Ballots". That factor should be run to the ground come May 6th.


    Ask anyone on the street (provided it is not Jim Murphy, Annabel Goldie, etc) who they will vote for, they won't say "Well, it is a two horse race. Unionist v Unionist. Only one can form the government. I disagree greatly with their policies, leaders and other things. I agree with the SNP, but due to this crazy logic I won't vote for them!". Instead, the said voter will vote according to whom they back.

    I will vote SNP. Just as an Ulster Unionist will vote for the UUP or DUP or TUV. Neither party (sorry UUP!) will form a Government any time soon. That is due to the number of MPs each territory (bar England) can send to Westminster.

    If, as predicted, the Tories cannot get an overall majority, then the SNP contingent can offer its support to them in exchange for policies that benefit Scotland. Voting SNP can get results. And besides, you vote for who you believe in. You don't vote according to what the PR people say.


    My prediction? The SNP vote will double compared to 2005. And its seat tally will treble. East Lothian I can now add to the above list.

    Electoral Calculus claims that the Labour vote will fall 3% across all Scottish Constituencies. Rubbish. Wait till May 6th - it will be up to 6+ times that!
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    SNP will receive 100% of the votes, because I'll be counting them.
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    (Original post by S.Beall)
    Let me address one thing.

    Glasgow North East was a by-election, and it is a vastly different seat compared to both Glasgow East and Glenrothes in terms of educational accomplishments, wealth and other common denominators. In other words, traditional Labour territory.
    Hmm, I wouldn't say Glasgow North East and Glasgow East are very different. Both are "traditional Labour territory", but Labour obviously pissed off people in the east end enough for the SNP to win. It wouldn't really surprise me if Labour won the seat back.

    I think the SNP could definitely win a fair few of the marginal seats but as another poster said, not so much in the west of Scotland, I can see this part staying a Labour stronghold.
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    I see the SNP being the big loser. Over the past year Salmond has shown himself to be out of touch and doesn't understand the worries of the normal man.
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    Can we realistically see big SNP losses though? I don't think so, even though Salmond has done nothing special in the Scottish Parliament apart from having landed more reliance on England with free university fees and all that which are being paid by English tax payers. We'll still see the Scots looking at a Scottish National Party or Labour, who also have done very little to the Scots. It'll be SNP nicking seats in remote places!
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    (Original post by RooKnight)
    It is very unlikely that the Conservatives will make any gains, lucky to gain 1 really.
    They're well positioned in a small handful of seats which require fairly tiny swings. In a number, they have excellent candidates. The target, I believe, is six seats in Scotland - but I think that's relatively optimistic. My money is on three.

    I wouldn't call that lucky either, it's an unfortunate effect of how constituency boundaries are drawn. In a proportional system, the Conservatives in Scotland would be entitled to around 10 MPs based on their share of the last Scottish Parliament vote. All they need is a small increase in the vote in certain areas (which often have a long history of voting Conservative, pre-1997).

    (Original post by RooKnight)
    Can we realistically see big SNP losses though? I don't think so, even though Salmond has done nothing special in the Scottish Parliament apart from having landed more reliance on England with free university fees and all that which are being paid by English tax payers. We'll still see the Scots looking at a Scottish National Party or Labour, who also have done very little to the Scots. It'll be SNP nicking seats in remote places!
    You're an idiot. The Scottish Parliament gets a consolidated fund. No policy which Alex Salmond implements can possibly change the amount of that fund.

    As for 'English tax payers' - there's no such thing, only British taxpayers. Moreover, this suggestion that Scotland is somehow not raising adequate funds is nonsense: Scotland has been the only part of the UK running a surplus in recent years.
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    (Original post by S.Beall)
    Ask anyone on the street (provided it is not Jim Murphy, Annabel Goldie, etc) who they will vote for, they won't say "Well, it is a two horse race. Unionist v Unionist. Only one can form the government. I disagree greatly with their policies, leaders and other things. I agree with the SNP, but due to this crazy logic I won't vote for them!". Instead, the said voter will vote according to whom they back.
    I don't think that's the case at all, and I've had a bit of experience operating in potential Tory seats in Scotland. I think people do recognise it as a two-horse race, and both Labour and the Tories are playing that up.

    Scottish voting surveys have always shown a large number of people prepared to vote for different parties at different elections.

    I will vote SNP. Just as an Ulster Unionist will vote for the UUP or DUP or TUV. Neither party (sorry UUP!) will form a Government any time soon. That is due to the number of MPs each territory (bar England) can send to Westminster.
    The UUP will most likely be part of the next government; they will be taking the Tory whip in the Commons as Ulster Conservatives and Unionists. The prospect of a NI Secretary with an NI seat is quite exciting actually.

    If, as predicted, the Tories cannot get an overall majority, then the SNP contingent can offer its support to them in exchange for policies that benefit Scotland.
    If the SNP props up the Tories, it'll be electoral suicide for them. They won't prop up Labour either, simply because of the animosity which exists between the two. If anything, there will be a LibLab pact if Labour win with a minority; if the Conservatives win with a minority, I suspect they'll just have to run as a minority administration.
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    (Original post by Stalin)
    SNP will receive 100% of the votes, because I'll be counting them.
    Labour would be proud!
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    (Original post by adamrules247)
    I see the SNP being the big loser. Over the past year Salmond has shown himself to be out of touch and doesn't understand the worries of the normal man.
    I recall people saying the honeymoon (at that time - 18 months) was over after Glenrothes. Then we won the European Election with a massive 10% increase in the vote, getting the highest percentage ever. Considering that in 1999 Labour were highly popular, it shows just how popular the SNP is to have beaten that percentage.

    We shall see who is in touch with the people in the next three sets of elections. The Westminster, Holyrood and Local elections of 2010,2011 and 2012 shall show significant increase in SNP support.
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    (Original post by L i b)
    I don't think that's the case at all, and I've had a bit of experience operating in potential Tory seats in Scotland. I think people do recognise it as a two-horse race, and both Labour and the Tories are playing that up.

    Scottish voting surveys have always shown a large number of people prepared to vote for different parties at different elections.



    The UUP will most likely be part of the next government; they will be taking the Tory whip in the Commons as Ulster Conservatives and Unionists. The prospect of a NI Secretary with an NI seat is quite exciting actually.



    If the SNP props up the Tories, it'll be electoral suicide for them. They won't prop up Labour either, simply because of the animosity which exists between the two. If anything, there will be a LibLab pact if Labour win with a minority; if the Conservatives win with a minority, I suspect they'll just have to run as a minority administration.
    The Conservatives have not went up greatly since 2005, whereas the SNP has (give or take a few percentage points) doubled their support. This should translate into extra seats.

    I said (sorry UUP!!!) for a reason. They might not have a single representative unless they manage to defeat the DUP and manage to hold North Down (which is looking very unlikely - Sylvia Hermon should and probably will stand and win as an Independent Unionist). Here is a proposition, why doesn't the Conservatives offer the job of Scottish Secretary to a Nationalist, especially if the Tories don't make any real gains?

    I would argue that propping up Labour would be electoral suicide - one further year of Labour Government is too much for anyone. If the SNP propped up the Conservatives by means of formal coalition or issue-by-issue bargainign, it would not be electoral suicide provided that this "propping up" was beneficial to the Scottish people. Labour could not say anything, especially if this was supported by the people.

    And if the Tories fail to win a majority, I think they will call a fresh election for a "people's madate", or something along that line.
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    I find it really irritating that Labour is (according to opinion polls) to decline by three percentage points. That is a bare-faced lie.

    I see a big decline, with a massive upsurge in the Nationalist vote.

    Oh, and perhaps the SNP could get around 1 Million Votes?

    Let me predict...

    SNP : 32-35%
    SLAB: 25-29%
    CON: 15-18%
    LIB: 10-13%

    Remainder of the vote can go either way.

    Either way, the SNP vote should double. How will SLAB spin their way out of this one?

    Let me play role-play, SLAB style.

    Gordon Brown: "Britain...is whole (stupid puss)...today we in the Labour party have got more votes than the Scottish National Party.I shall not be moved from No.10. I am getting on with the job."

    Jim Murphy: "It is very clear that these results show that most Scots don't want separation. Most Scots, by contrast have voted Labour. Rumours that the SNP have topped the poll are unfounded, for 1.3 Million Postal Ballots have not been added yet. The Separation Bill was not passed, another broken SNP promise. We in Labour believe in giving people a say on these matters...even though we blocked it! Along with other SNP manifesto pledges. Oh, and I lost my seat to the Conservatives. Woopdeedoo."

    Iain Gray: Could not be contacted. Leadership contest underway.
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    (Original post by S.Beall)
    I find it really irritating that Labour is (according to opinion polls) to decline by three percentage points. That is a bare-faced lie.

    I see a big decline, with a massive upsurge in the Nationalist vote.

    Oh, and perhaps the SNP could get around 1 Million Votes?

    Let me predict...

    SNP : 32-35%
    SLAB: 25-29%
    CON: 15-18%
    LIB: 10-13%

    Remainder of the vote can go either way.

    Either way, the SNP vote should double. How will SLAB spin their way out of this one?
    You have no evidence for this-you can predict what you like but you are wrong. Because...
    1.At By-elections which don't affect the national position the SNP can persuade voters to give Labour a bloody nose as the Tories did at Norwich North and Crewe.
    2. In scottish elections the SNP can win power and so all nationalist will vote for them in large numbers,at general elections many will vote labour to stop the hugely pro-unionist Tories getting in.

    There is the real evidence.
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    (Original post by maniacgeorge)
    You have no evidence for this-you can predict what you like but you are wrong. Because...
    1.At By-elections which don't affect the national position the SNP can persuade voters to give Labour a bloody nose as the Tories did at Norwich North and Crewe.
    2. In scottish elections the SNP can win power and so all nationalist will vote for them in large numbers,at general elections many will vote labour to stop the hugely pro-unionist Tories getting in.

    There is the real evidence.

    1) I don't refer to by-elections - I am referring to the two big National Elections that have taken place since 2005. Each of which has delivered the SNP consistently around 30% of the vote - a big increase since 2005. I can't imagine the 13% consistent support fleeing to vote for Labour. This support has been, and will continue to be, consistent. Just you wait till results night.

    2) The SNP won a UK-wide election in Scotland. So they don't just win Scottish elections. Oh, and they have the highest percentage poll in Scottish European Election history! And that beats the time when Labour was popular!
 
 
 
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