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    If so, for how long?
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    <----->

    (not to scale)
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    Wouldn't even bother to look at UK economy (though after election would be interesting lol). If going by the current indications of the economy, I would stay away from UK market for sometime:P
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    i should have shorten the ftse, the nasdaq, the dow and the s&p.
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    You are better off heading to the casino... at least you'll get some drinks.
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    bearish outside month technically in hang seng, ftse, dax, dow jones and the cac.

    i'd stagger your entries, sell clips into any bounces.
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    anfitrion is right, unless you're highly informed/intelligent, shorting as part of a trading strategy, you might as well just go and gamble in a casino.

    Though argument that UK economy in a bad state => stay away from the market is interesting... don't something like 75% of ftse 100 revenues come from abroad? Weak sterling should help out considerably, encourage foreign takeovers, boost profits (in £ terms).
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    Equities for the long run.
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    I should have shorted the GBP/USD yesterday, would have made a fortune!
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    (Original post by Thornton)
    anfitrion is right, unless you're highly informed/intelligent, shorting as part of a trading strategy, you might as well just go and gamble in a casino.

    Though argument that UK economy in a bad state => stay away from the market is interesting... don't something like 75% of ftse 100 revenues come from abroad? Weak sterling should help out considerably, encourage foreign takeovers, boost profits (in £ terms).
    ********, weak sterling hardly does any good for the UK, we hardly export any goods! Inflation mid feb may be over 3% thats 1% above target, interest rates will definitely rise -> strong GBP (carry trade) weak ftse in the long term. I'm not on about day trading, this is an investment.
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    I'd invest in a FTSE Tracker fund for around 2/3 years. With regard to short term positions, it's a bit too risky..
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    Amazing how people suddenly realise what they 'should' have done yesterday. Why didnt you then?
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    (Original post by LoZEr)
    ********, weak sterling hardly does any good for the UK, we hardly export any goods! Inflation mid feb may be over 3% thats 1% above target, interest rates will definitely rise -> strong GBP (carry trade) weak ftse in the long term. I'm not on about day trading, this is an investment.
    erm, i'm not talking about exporting, i'm talking about foreign earnings. Tons of big london listed mulitnationals (e.g. BP) earn most of their profits overseas, often reported in dollars. I don't care (for the purposes of making investment decisions) how much stuff we actually make in the UK, but I do care how much the billions of dollars that BP, Shell, GSK, vodafone, HSBC, Rio Tinto et al are worth to me as a sterling investor.
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    (Original post by Thornton)
    erm, i'm not talking about exporting, i'm talking about foreign earnings. Tons of big london listed mulitnationals (e.g. BP) earn most of their profits overseas, often reported in dollars. I don't care (for the purposes of making investment decisions) how much stuff we actually make in the UK, but I do care how much the billions of dollars that BP, Shell, GSK, vodafone, HSBC, Rio Tinto et al are worth to me as a sterling investor.
    so interests rates have nothing to do with it... right

    investors are going to be reluctant to invest in uk if it's gonna cost them a lot more than investing in foreign stocks, irrelevant of bp's success

    macro econ research is pretty damn important for an investor

    Oh, you said before: "shorting as part of a trading strategy, you might as well just go and gamble in a casino." What nonsense
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    (Original post by LoZEr)
    ********, weak sterling hardly does any good for the UK, we hardly export any goods! Inflation mid feb may be over 3% thats 1% above target, interest rates will definitely rise -> strong GBP (carry trade) weak ftse in the long term. I'm not on about day trading, this is an investment.
    Weak Sterling most definitely has had/will have a significant positive impact on UK GDP. We have a surplus in services and a deficit in goods.

    Inflation is mostly attributed to a temp spike due to base effects (oil, VAT, pre-Xmas panic sales leading up to Dec 2008). Money supply growth is still dead... Mervyn King has already addressed the inflation spike as temporary.

    There is no chance of a hike at the next meeting. The only thing being watched out for is the plans for QE.
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    (Original post by SevenDeuceOff)
    Mervyn King has already addressed the inflation spike as temporary.
    Of course he would lol. No chance of a hike? I wouldn't be surprised if CPI hit 3%+ tbh.

    And with concerns to weak sterling, hardly as positive as a weak euro for say Germany.

    Even if inflation rises/BoE raises interest rates in April or later, I feel investors are still likely to want to sell their stocks beforehand. Emerging markets on the otherhand....
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    (Original post by LoZEr)
    Of course he would lol. No chance of a hike? I wouldn't be surprised if CPI hit 3%+ tbh.
    I dont think you get how the independent central bank model works; credibility is key. King, Trichet, Bernanke cannot say one thing and plan to do another at the same time, or face the risk of losing credibility and/or derailing inflationary expectations.

    with vat reversion base effect to kick in, 3%+ is half-expected and already priced in. If the mpc believe its temporary, then thats all that matters to where rates will be at the next meeting. Markets price zero chance of hike at next meeting in a few days.

    And with concerns to weak sterling, hardly as positive as a weak euro for say Germany.
    UK leading indicators are surging... esp. mfg PMIs.

    Even if inflation rises/BoE raises interest rates in April or later, I feel investors are still likely to want to sell their stocks beforehand. Emerging markets on the otherhand....
    The hiking schedule is priced in by rate futures. its not as simple/naive as saying, if they raise rates, then equities will fall. it depends on whether hikes are expected, and why they were done. if we get into the full swing of recovery, inflationary pressures build up due to the closing down of excess capacity and rates are increased because the economy is growing faster... earnings are rising... equities are going to hold well.

    On the EM comment, that's not how markets have been behaving since the crisis. Correlation between US/European equities and EM equities are very high as price action has been driven primarily by risk-on and risk-off positioning. When risk-off, FTSE/S&P tank, EM equities tank more, commods tank, dollar rallies and there is a flight to quality fixed income (Bunds and USTs). The correlation is high.

    anyway, punt on cfds/spdbetting all you like... from my experience on this forum, nobody listens to advice anyway and leveraged punting ensues regardless
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    (Original post by SevenDeuceOff)
    The hiking schedule is priced in by rate futures. its not as simple/naive as saying, if they raise rates, then equities will fall. it depends on whether hikes are expected, and why they were done. if we get into the full swing of recovery, inflationary pressures build up due to the closing down of excess capacity and rates are increased because the economy is growing faster
    Yes i know...

    (Original post by SevenDeuceOff)
    ... earnings are rising... equities are going to hold well.
    From the source I have, average earnings has been decreasing since Nov 07...

    (Original post by SevenDeuceOff)
    On the EM comment, that's not how markets have been behaving since the crisis. Correlation between US/European equities and EM equities are very high as price action has been driven primarily by risk-on and risk-off positioning. When risk-off, FTSE/S&P tank, EM equities tank more, commods tank, dollar rallies and there is a flight to quality fixed income (Bunds and USTs). The correlation is high.
    Correlation has been high since the crisis, thats true (looking at KOSPI and FTSE). But when making investments you cant always go on correlations can you? *cough* LTCM *cough*. From Bloomberg: "Carlyle Group co-founder David Rubenstein said emerging markets are the best place to invest as their economies grow faster than the developed world. Emerging markets are the most attractive places to invest and rebounding more rapidly, he said today at the World Economic Forum’s annual meeting in Davos, Switzerland, citing countries like China, India and Brazil, Korea and Turkey. We’ll see lots of capital going into these countries."

    Raising interest rates when the economy is no where near full recovery is not great. In the end, 3%+ in UK may lead to this no??? Otherwise, would there not be long term inflationary dangers. Previously BoE did expect temporary inflation.. of 2.4%, not 2.9%.

    Dont you reckon that in the future, equities within South Korea are more likely to hold well, raising their interest rates (2% right now) won't affect its economy as much as UK due to the huge demand in technological goods from China. PMI isn't a great measure - UK manufacturing is speeding up, but it doesn't mean its capital from exports is any better than Germany's or South Korea's.

    (Original post by SevenDeuceOff)
    anyway, punt on cfds/spdbetting all you like... from my experience on this forum, nobody listens to advice anyway and leveraged punting ensues regardless
    I'm not punting on anything. These conversations on this forum are far more worthwile then apps/offers/am I good enough for banking threads. You must understand that the best investors will be analysing global economies very very differently to you and myself. To make money you have to see what others don't. With your logic Michael Swenson and Josh Birnbaum of Goldman threw a punt when shorting mortgage related securities back in 07. However, it still made Goldman $4bn .
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    (Original post by LoZEr)
    so interests rates have nothing to do with it... right

    investors are going to be reluctant to invest in uk if it's gonna cost them a lot more than investing in foreign stocks, irrelevant of bp's success

    macro econ research is pretty damn important for an investor

    Oh, you said before: "shorting as part of a trading strategy, you might as well just go and gamble in a casino." What nonsense
    I don't want to be dragged too far into an argument, and SevenDeuceOff seems to have addressed most of your issues, but I do find the claim that a suffering economy is going to have a strong currency quite bizarre.

    More importantly, you'll find that I said "unless you're highly informed/intelligent, shorting as part of a trading strategy, you might as well just go and gamble in a casino". When spoken aloud, the second comma should have the longer pause... if you get my drift. I apologise if my use of English was not clear enough to you.
    That said, I assume you're just a student who thinks that you're cleverer than the market and 'know' that stocks will fall. You may have an expensive lesson to learn...

    Best of luck with your bet. In the meantime, I'm happy with my investments, whereby I provide companies with capital which they use productively (e.g. in BP's case, digging for and selling oil) to generate a return.
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    (Original post by Thornton)
    I'm happy with my investments, whereby I provide companies with capital which they use productively (e.g. in BP's case, digging for and selling oil) to generate a return.

    And refining.
 
 
 
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