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    (Original post by Teenage Pirate)
    he's right you know :ahee:
    Of course he is

    Next he'll be telling us the sky isn't blue if it isn't daytime...
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    Unless you guys are privy to private info I wouldn't bother investing. I know a lot of people will disagree but it is my belief that the only way for small independent market participants to profit is by trading short term. In the short term there are Inefficiencies, but they don't take long to be exploited, and your not going to spot them by reading economic reports and checking up on the market 1-2 times a day.

    To profit investing you need to know something before the majority and act on it, and I doubt you have this information. Being a small speculator, day-trading, you can profit by anticipating areas of high or low liquidity, small size means there are things you can do that investment houses can't.

    Participant motives are something to look at... Expiries, defence, Interventions, Over-reaction upon news W/e.
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    (Original post by LeonLorenzo)
    Unless you guys are privy to private info I wouldn't bother investing. I know a lot of people will disagree but it is my belief that the only way for small independent market participants to profit is by trading short term. Inefficiencies don't take long to be exploited and your not going to spot them by reading economic reports and checking up on the market 1-2 times a day.

    To profit you need to know something before the majority and act on it. Being a small speculator, day-trading, you can profit by anticipating areas of high or low liquidity, small size means there are things you can do that investment houses can't.
    Yeh equity research is just a pile of **** isnt it. :rolleyes:
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    (Original post by SevenDeuceOff)
    Of course he is
    no seriously, i'm actually right.
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    (Original post by LoZEr)
    Yeh equity research is just a pile of **** isnt it. :rolleyes:
    Depends, how much money has it made you?
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    (Original post by LoZEr)
    Yeh equity research is just a pile of **** isnt it. :rolleyes:
    Yes, hence why there bonuses are half the size of a traders.
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    (Original post by Damarus)
    Yes, hence why there bonuses are half the size of a traders.
    Hence, hedge fund managers who use ER have bonuses more than triple than that of traders.
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    For fun from Friday:

    “In January, the number of persons unemployed due to job loss decreased by 378,000 to 9.3 million. Nearly all of this decline occurred among permanent job losers.”

    - As in, they gave up. If 9.3m = 9.7%, then 378k = 0.394%, which makes the non-labour force shrinking unemployment, 10.1%. But it kind of makes me wonder, did 4% of unemployed people made a New Year Resolution, I can't be bothered to look for a job ever again?


    Final revisions for 2008 lower total employed by 902k. Revisions for 2009 lower the total employed by 617k. Estimates on how those would vary are all over the place. Net at the end of last year, instead of the previously published 130.91m employed, there’s now just 129.547m employed.


    On a lighter note:

    First time mention for the powerhouse of job creation that is:

    “Ambulatory health care services added 15,000 jobs over the month.”

    - Which I guess is an increase in ambulance cover of 1.7% in just one month.

    “Employment in manufacturing was little changed in January (11,000). After experiencing steep job losses earlier in the recession, employment declines moderated considerably in the second half of 2009. In January, job gains in motor vehicles and parts (23,000) and plastics and rubber products (6,000) offset small job losses elsewhere in the industry.”

    - All been building ambulances and ambulance equipment then…?
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    (Original post by LoZEr)
    Hence, hedge fund managers who use ER have bonuses more than triple than that of traders. Btw, where are you interning this summer?
    I don't know yet. I have 3 AC's coming up so I will have to wait and see! :woo: :yep:

    How about you?
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    (Original post by President_Ben)
    - As in, they gave up. If 9.3m = 9.7%, then 378k = 0.394%, which makes the non-labour force shrinking unemployment, 10.1%. But it kind of makes me wonder, did 4% of unemployed people made a New Year Resolution, I can't be bothered to look for a job ever again?
    Outflow of people back to Mexico (plus other countries obviously) could have accounted for some of this loss?
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    (Original post by greenyblue_eyes)
    Outflow of people back to Mexico (plus other countries obviously) could have accounted for some of this loss?
    That people crossing the border, in just that month and no other month? All of whom were 'officially' in the count? It's possible...
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    (Original post by President_Ben)
    That people crossing the border, in just that month and no other month? All of whom were 'officially' in the count? It's possible...
    No I mean people leaving the country for good. Moving to the US for the "American dream" and moving back to where they came from when they can't find a job.

    Used Mexico as I'd imagine this occurs most often given distance between the two countries.
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    (Original post by greenyblue_eyes)
    No I mean people leaving the country for good. Moving to the US for the "American dream" and moving back to where they came from when they can't find a job.

    Used Mexico as I'd imagine this occurs most often given distance between the two countries.
    Its also why UK unemployment isn't as high as it should be :P
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    (Original post by LeonLorenzo)
    Unless you guys are privy to private info I wouldn't bother investing. I know a lot of people will disagree but it is my belief that the only way for small independent market participants to profit is by trading short term. In the short term there are Inefficiencies, but they don't take long to be exploited, and your not going to spot them by reading economic reports and checking up on the market 1-2 times a day.

    To profit investing you need to know something before the majority and act on it, and I doubt you have this information. Being a small speculator, day-trading, you can profit by anticipating areas of high or low liquidity, small size means there are things you can do that investment houses can't.

    Participant motives are something to look at... Expiries, defence, Interventions, Over-reaction upon news W/e.
    Possibly the most stupid advice I have ever seen on investing.
    If you trade with a trend and it goes wrong short term, you can still have pretty good confidence in the trade. Short term trends don't last long, and break without any warning whatsoever. So how exactly does someone make money in the short term with such little market knowledge?
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    (Original post by Fynch101)
    Possibly the most stupid advice I have ever seen on investing.
    If you trade with a trend and it goes wrong short term, you can still have pretty good confidence in the trade. Short term trends don't last long, and break without any warning whatsoever. So how exactly does someone make money in the short term with such little market knowledge?
    It's possible if you play it properly, not easy but it works if you trade in a disciplined manner. Rest you'll need to find it out by experience....
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    (Original post by Fynch101)
    Possibly the most stupid advice I have ever seen on investing.
    If you trade with a trend and it goes wrong short term, you can still have pretty good confidence in the trade. Short term trends don't last long, and break without any warning whatsoever. So how exactly does someone make money in the short term with such little market knowledge?
    I would only ever consider trading with the trend if I could identify a nice big pool of liquidity below in an uptrend or above in a down trend, by whatever method, or identify a large market participant who needs to act, in the direction of the trend, for some reason. The trend would only be a single plus on a checklist, it wouldn't be the reason for a trade.

    Nobody makes money by following trends in the Long-term; try trading a Moving average cross - lose your arse just the same, it's a lagging indicator. Those who follow only increase profits for the instigators of a move.

    What's your edge? To profit in the markets you need to have superior information, or superior strategy to 50%+ of the money in the market. What YOU need to ask your self is... is your trading/investing methodology innovative? If it is exactly the same method that Gregory next door uses then i am pretty sure you are not profitable in your trading or at least won’t be in the long-term.
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    (Original post by LeonLorenzo)
    I would only ever consider trading with the trend if I could identify a nice big pool of liquidity below in an uptrend or above in a down trend, by whatever method, or identify a large market participant who needs to act, in the direction of the trend, for some reason. The trend would only be a single plus on a checklist, it wouldn't be the reason for a trade.

    Nobody makes money by following trends in the Long-term; try trading a Moving average cross - lose your arse just the same, it's a lagging indicator. Those who follow only increase profits for the instigators of a move.

    What's your edge? To profit in the markets you need to have superior information, or superior strategy to 50%+ of the money in the market. What YOU need to ask your self is... is your trading/investing methodology innovative? If it is exactly the same method that Gregory next door uses then i am pretty sure you are not profitable in your trading or at least won’t be in the long-term.
    Its quite clear that you have just read far too many "I can make you rich" books, and that you have very little trading experience.

    I mean what sort of idiot says "nobody makes money by following trends long term" Unbelievable. Trading a moving average cross? What? Moving averages i.e. 20, 50 and 100 are a key indicator in a trend. When they cross, on a daily chart, it is quite rare, and therefore when they do cross it can signify a change in trend, so you don't trade. Ok? Whatever logic you have for trading, I suggest you lose it because so far what you have said is garbage.
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    (Original post by Fynch101)
    Its quite clear that you have just read far too many "I can make you rich" books, and that you have very little trading experience.

    I mean what sort of idiot says "nobody makes money by following trends long term" Unbelievable. Trading a moving average cross? What? Moving averages i.e. 20, 50 and 100 are a key indicator in a trend. When they cross, on a daily chart, it is quite rare, and therefore when they do cross it can signify a change in trend, so you don't trade. Ok? Whatever logic you have for trading, I suggest you lose it because so far what you have said is garbage.
    I'm saying that you shouldn't, and wont profit from, trading with the trend for trading with the trends sake. There has to be supporting evidence. Trends are only visible in retrospect just as their ending is only visible in hindsight, what this means is that 'trend-traders' enter the market late and exit it late. In speculative markets this just isn't sufficient to profit from.

    If you enter or exit a trade based on a MA cross or any other arbitrary squiggly line then you are not trading the markets reality.
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    (Original post by LeonLorenzo)
    I'm saying that you shouldn't, and wont profit from, trading with the trend for trading with the trends sake. There has to be supporting evidence. Trends are only visible in retrospect just as their ending is only visible in hindsight, what this means is that 'trend-traders' enter the market late and exit it late. In speculative markets this just isn't sufficient to profit from.

    If you enter or exit a trade based on a MA cross or any other arbitrary squiggly line then you are not trading the markets reality.
    I'm still gobsmacked. Have you ever even heard of Dow theory or Elliot Wave Theory?

    I will just destroy your point with the performance of the FTSE100 since March 2009.

    By August/September 2009, it was very clear an uptrend in the FTSE 100 had started. There were plenty of reasons for this uptrend to carry on, i.e. rising production in US, Germany, China and India in particular sending commodity prices soaring from their lows, and the QE program in the UK. If you got into the vast majority of FTSE100 stocks in September, particularly miners, you would still have a substantial profit even now. If you had gone against the trend, you would have been burnt. Its as simple as that. Just because they didn't buy in early march and sell in early january doesn't mean they haven't traded right.

    MACD is one of the most reliable indicators on offer, hence why it is so popular for traders. Are you saying they are wrong?
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    (Original post by Fynch101)
    I'm still gobsmacked. Have you ever even heard of Dow theory or Elliot Wave Theory?

    I will just destroy your point with the performance of the FTSE100 since March 2009.

    By August/September 2009, it was very clear an uptrend in the FTSE 100 had started. There were plenty of reasons for this uptrend to carry on, i.e. rising production in US, Germany, China and India in particular sending commodity prices soaring from their lows, and the QE program in the UK. If you got into the vast majority of FTSE100 stocks in September, particularly miners, you would still have a substantial profit even now. If you had gone against the trend, you would have been burnt. Its as simple as that. Just because they didn't buy in early march and sell in early january doesn't mean they haven't traded right.

    MACD is one of the most reliable indicators on offer, hence why it is so popular for traders. Are you saying they are wrong?
    Yes, Ive heard of them, sadly.

    It's easy to point out trends that would have been exploitable in hindsight, and to find ways to explain why they happened. But this story-telling is the job of news reporters and market commentators, not traders. Is that all you're offering me, one example?

    MACD, just like all technical indicators, does what it is supposed to do which is to display what has already happened in another form. The thing doesn't tell you what is going to happen in the future.

    Next you'll be telling me that am an idiot for not using Fib's.
 
 
 
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