Just to ask a quick question to those of you far more experienced in this electoral analysis business. Would this seat be qualified as being an SNP target seat (in the top five). From where I stand, the SNP are in a very strong position (36%), with Labour having a 19% majority. Other seats which the SNP wish to win (bar Ochil) are looking far more difficult.
I think that if the SNP candidate manages to build upon the 36% by around 5-8% and the Labour vote falls by around 10% (which would be a normal result for a national Labour>SNP swing of around....whatever percentage.
Tell me what you think. The SNP has a higher percentage in Glenrothes than in Dundee West, and the majority is fairly similar (around 5% higher in Glenrothes). So say, for example, Dundee West falls fairly easily and the swing was consistent across Scotland, would this equate to Glenrothes falling? I strongly doubt that the SNP will fall below the by-election result.
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