Avian Flu in Humans

There seems to be a fair bit of media coverage about the possibility of a strain of bird flu mixed with human flu (H5N1 I think it's called). This would apparently spread quickly from human to human and cause a massive pandemic. A number of experts seem to be suggesting that it is inevitable and I've seen estimated death tolls which stand at 50 million worldwide and 50,000 in Britain. Vaccines wouldn't work because no one is sure what form the virus would take and because they would have to be so rushed that it might put people at greater risk.

Is there anything to be done if it does happen?
Is there any reason they think it's more likely to happen this winter?
What do other people think about it? Worried or philosophical?

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Reply 1

adamu

Yeah i think ive got it...

Reply 2

Herleif

50,000 you say?

Meh, that'll help the gov with their housing targets :wink:

[philosophical]

Reply 3

dave

I've read reports as well - it is a concern to the scientific community - but the reports I've read (last one was dated Feb. 2005 - you may well have seen a more recent one though) seem to be "playing down" the disease. But me being a total sceptic - I'd say "well they WOULD, wouldn't they." And the few cases that I've read about seem to be concentrated in Malaysia - which means absolutely nothing if this disease or it's mutations are air-borne.

Is there anything to be done if it does happen? I seriously doubt it.
Is there any reason they think it's more likely to happen this winter? Hope not - it would ruin my plans.
What do other people think about it? Worried or philosophical? How can you be anything other than philosophical? :smile:

Reply 4

dave

Herleif

50,000 you say?

Meh, that'll help the gov with their housing targets :wink:

[philosophical]

..............

***thinks: hasn't blair just bought a parrot?***

Reply 5

Gem

Woah I didn't think it would be that bad :eek:

That's terrible.

Reply 6

Helenia

If it mutates successfully enough to enable human-human transmission (current evidence of this seems patchy; so far only bird-human documented) then yes, it could be devastating.

Reply 7

Gem

I've got pet chickens too, but seeing as I've had them since chicks I doubt they'll have it!

Reply 8

RetiredAccount89

The death toll will be far far in excess of 50 million, and it will happen soon.

Trust someone who knows...

Reply 9

Kard

This is the sort of thing that makes me want to go out and live in the middle of nowhere, hook up some solar panels and set up a vegetable patch and then never talk to humans again.

Reply 10

Gem

Really, more than 50 million? OMG :eek:

That's really scary. So is there anything we can do to protect ourselves? I mean from what I've heard the virus is in birds faeces then when it dries up we inhale the dust (sorry to be a bit graphic) but apart from not breathing (joke) what can we do?!

Am really scared now :bawling:

Reply 11

Kard

Wasn't this supposed to be the case with SARS? What ever happened to that.

Reply 12

dave

Helenia

If it mutates successfully enough to enable human-human transmission (current evidence of this seems patchy; so far only bird-human documented) then yes, it could be devastating.

I picked this up from the BBC website - so I suppose it could be innaccurate (I'm NOT being sarcastic btw) :smile:

Q: Can avian flu be passed from person to person?

There are indications that it can, although so far not in the feared mutated form which could fuel a pandemic.

A case in Thailand indicated the probable transmission of the virus from a girl who had the disease to her mother, who also died.

The girl's aunt, who was also infected, survived the virus.

UK virology expert Professor John Oxford said these cases indicated the basic virus could be passed between humans, and predicted similar small clusters of cases would be seen again.

It is not the only instance where it has been thought bird flu has been passed between humans. In 2004, two sisters died in Vietnam after possibly contracting bird flu from their brother who had died from an unidentified respiratory illness. In a similar case in Hong Kong in 1997, a doctor possibly caught the disease from a patient with the H5N1 virus - but it was never conclusively proved.

I think - worst case scenario being pandemic - there are going to be survivors.

Reply 13

__Dreams__

Kard

This is the sort of thing that makes me want to go out and live in the middle of nowhere, hook up some solar panels and set up a vegetable patch and then never talk to humans again.

but without human interaction arent you dead anyway?

Reply 14

dave

Jamie

The death toll will be far far in excess of 50 million, and it will happen soon.

Trust someone who knows...

This post - along with your signature - has had me in stiches. Great stuff!!!

Reply 15

Kard

but without human interaction arent you dead anyway?

If that's true than a lot of people I know have died from playing excessive Counterstrike/Final Fantasy IX.

O.O

Reply 16

__Dreams__

Kard

If that's true than a lot of people I know have died from playing excessive Counterstrike/Final Fantasy IX.

O.O

HAHAHa

tis true as some versions of final fantasy can take around 100hours to complete

also this epidemic reminds me of the saars epidemic which luckily amounted to very little

are there similarities im hoping this wont get anywhere like saars :smile:

Reply 17

RetiredAccount89

bodhisattva

This post - along with your signature - has had me in stiches. Great stuff!!!

Ooo yeah, didn't notice that lol.

am quite serioius though. my dissertation was on the threat of pandemic influenza...
[written before it became all big news like now]

Reply 18

morris

I believe this is a type of influenza. I know a nurse and she said that very old, very young and ill people are often killed by this, but that healthy people can fight it off...

I hate it when it comes onto the news, because it would be tragic. I think that there was a very similar case in spain in the early 1900's. Looks like Jamie would be able to confirm this, however :tongue:

Reply 19

dave

Jamie

Ooo yeah, didn't notice that lol.

am quite serioius though. my dissertation was on the threat of pandemic influenza...
[written before it became all big news like now]

I'd be interested in reading that if you have it in .txt/.doc/.rtf format. :smile:

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