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name a stock... watch

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    (Original post by Ironuts)

    And Stanmoor, good effort if you've made a bit of cash, but reading RNS's doesn't exactly give you a competitive advantage. What else do you see happening to lift the share price, and why's it not already priced in? They've risen pretty far, pretty fast... I'd be tempted to get out and look for other opportunities with a better risk/reward. Especially given every man and his dog owns them now...

    Edit: Stanmoor, you're right. They're not a small oil stock any more. Which is exactly why I'd be 100x more comfortable having my money in Total or ConocoPhillips (assuming you see BP as too much of a gamble). Like I said though, if you bought them as part of a large basket before April, good effort.
    You're right about the RNS' not giving a competitive advantage, but they do hint at much bigger and better things to come to rockhopper. For example, the recent RNS stated the flow rate recorded was a promising level, but with better equipment and testing, it could be much better. Secondly, appraisal wells etc still need to be drilled to discover the true size of their sea lion well. The estimate amount of oil that they have now is taking into account just 25% of the size of the oil field, so I'm willing to bet that their find is much bigger than announced. There's lots of other reasons why I'm staying put that I can't be bothered to go into right now as I'm typing on a touch keypad. Oh, and desire also has a drill coming up, which rockhopper has a small percentage of. All of these things plus more mean to me, that rockhopper is still undervalued. Various analyst reports rate rockhoppers sea lion find alone as 690p, and that's using figures from the smallest amount of oil being down there. I'm convinced (as are many other investors) that there's much more down there, and rockhopper still has a long way to go. Just look at tullow oil.

    Well done for getting into BP also, I too hold some shares in them, not quite as low as you but still in the profit. I can see 450p by christmas, and after dividends are reinstated it's a one way ticket back north.

    IQE are up a further 13% today, i really would check these out before they rise any more...certainly an exciting company to be holding.
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    (Original post by President_Ben)
    Edge or punting.
    WTF does that even mean? In the whole of this forum iv never seen you say anything helpfull or constructive.
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    If you don't know what edge is, in the context of finance, you're lazy or a tool blunter than a wooden spoon. Google.
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    Ben, stop trying to be a complete smart arse all the time. He may or may not know what edge is, it's the just the fact that you just wrote it without quoting or in reference to anything else. I'm assuming you're not writing to the OP since you've already posted in the thread, but then again, I don't know if you are.
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    OK go ahead and google it. All i can find is some financial software. Its not the fact that im lazy its the fact that i am a student (like most in this forum) who despite my best efforts does not have a lot of experience in large finance organisation. So prehaps you could be able to actually help the people on here instead of posting nonsensical comments. At a guess i can imagine your talking about two different types of trading.
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    OMG... this is ridiculous.. just read my posts and PB's.. Do I really have to spell it out for you ?? PB is back here despite all the insults to nudge you guys to realise what you are doing..

    Everybody makes money in the bull market.. - (I see what you all are gonna say about whether its bull or bear now.. THATS NOT THE POINT I'M MAKING)

    If you have a track record.. a statistically significant profitable system..then I apologise for judging to early.

    But if you are starting out and making money its easy to connect the imaginary dots and think you are the best..

    Thought you guys would have at least read some of the crap books available like come into my trading room and Van tharp stuffs that goes in to psychology.. also recommend market wizard.
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    Hardly. That's actually the dumbest thing I've seen on this forum for a while and given the average level, that takes some doing.

    I googled edge and trading and could see what edge was on the first page.

    There's plenty of jargon/lingo lists out there too.

    Edge is the advantage you have but in all your cases, you have none. You're all spivvy, speccing penny punters. Satisfying a gambling habit? Sure.

    Actually thinking you're 'in control' - that's a popular delusion.

    ...the madness of crowds...
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    stanmoor, you've got to be pretty challenged to be unable to read web forum posts in a sensible order.

    To clarify, the dumbest thing I read in a while was that since I'm a FI options trader, I may have cash EQ envy.
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    (Original post by President_Ben)

    Edge is the advantage you have but in all your cases, you have none. You're all spivvy, speccing penny punters. Satisfying a gambling habit?
    Given that I am a professional investor and am paid to analyse and invest in both cash equities (and have met the management of all the stocks I listed) and alternatives I am a little offended...I'll probably get over it though.

    :elefant:
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    I can undesrstand the concept of having an edge over someone else that isnt neccecarily a finance term. Im guessing you saying are you just taking a punt or do you have an edge over someone else.
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    a problem is that "edges" are far less clear than is being made out. most retail traders are punting but at the same time there are a lot of opportunities available for retail traders that pros can't use although they aren't numerous, or frequent, or well-known or present all the time. anyway my point is that while its fine to talk of "edge" like its something quantitative, which it admittedly very much is in hindsight, but it isn't that simple in real life...although if your betting money on it I would hope it would be. For example, if you ever hear Tudor Jones justify his trades you would say he is punting, he has no edge (if you couldn't see his track record) but it turns out either hes extremely lucky or hes got something that can't be quantified...Anyway, just my 2 cents...can't really say i disagree but worth an argument.

    I would also say, more cheekily, if your recommending (altho its not clear you were) Market Wizards you don't get it. That book, and the two ones after, are without doubt the worst example of survivorship bias in the world (although some of them like Lipschutz/Marcus/PTJ/Kovner probably do have some skills) most of the people don't trade anymore or went bust. They were pretty much totally a product of the market of the 70s and 80s. If I thought Van Tharp really traded I would critique it...he doesn't so I'm not going to.

    just as a disclaimer, i'm not saying this to justify my "punting". My "punting" makes sense for me even if I don't have an edge because my motives aren't strictly monetary. i would also think that for most people here looking at companies or currencies or whatever has a motive aside from money i.e educational.
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    I think survivorship bias is omnipresent in financial markets, particuarly in areas like retail punting, HFs and of course succesful traders.

    As to having an edge - 'Bluestar Airlines' is probably the best example of having an edge....any other edge is a combination of experience, luck and access.
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    (Original post by crcr)
    a problem is that "edges" are far less clear than is being made out. most retail traders are punting but at the same time there are a lot of opportunities available for retail traders that pros can't use although they aren't numerous, or frequent, or well-known or present all the time. anyway my point is that while its fine to talk of "edge" like its something quantitative, which it admittedly very much is in hindsight, but it isn't that simple in real life...although if your betting money on it I would hope it would be. For example, if you ever hear Tudor Jones justify his trades you would say he is punting, he has no edge (if you couldn't see his track record) but it turns out either hes extremely lucky or hes got something that can't be quantified...Anyway, just my 2 cents...can't really say i disagree but worth an argument.

    I would also say, more cheekily, if your recommending (altho its not clear you were) Market Wizards you don't get it. That book, and the two ones after, are without doubt the worst example of survivorship bias in the world (although some of them like Lipschutz/Marcus/PTJ/Kovner probably do have some skills) most of the people don't trade anymore or went bust. They were pretty much totally a product of the market of the 70s and 80s. If I thought Van Tharp really traded I would critique it...he doesn't so I'm not going to.

    just as a disclaimer, i'm not saying this to justify my "punting". My "punting" makes sense for me even if I don't have an edge because my motives aren't strictly monetary. i would also think that for most people here looking at companies or currencies or whatever has a motive aside from money i.e educational.
    has your punting made money for you consistently ? over a period of time ? over a number of trades ? I'd say thats your edge.
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    thats the problem though, if you make money it means absolutely nothing. you have to take a really hard look at how your doing it and in some cases its impossible to tell esp. in the more qualitative cases.

    what period of time is enough? a year? 10 years? (although is probably depends on how many trades you do) it kinda seems like once you find out, its too late. with the market wizard example it turned out that moving averages worked well for something like 15 maybe 20 years and then it stopped working (or at least in the same way). or a better (less mechanical example) is bill miller from legg mason who was considered a pretty awesome investor for about 20 years and then had an unbelievable nightmare when stock market stopped going up (hilariously recounted in part in big short btw)...maybe a bit harsh but a lesson there. so its all pretty sketchy. i say if you can identify your edge your ******* smart, thats why the quant stuff (not that i understand it totally) is so ******* smart cos you can see the edge and you can work out when it stops (or so i'm told). although i'm sure the secretiveness of winton and ren tech protects their edge as well. i think its probablly a lot easier with technology to work out whats going on though...
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    anyway.. the point i'm trying to make to the young guns here is to kill their egos and be honest to themselves.
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    (Original post by flamingmoe)
    anyway.. the point i'm trying to make to the young guns here is to kill their egos and be honest to themselves.
    What's your background?
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    Does my background matter ? Did what I say not make any sense to anybody ? My advice is for you to take it or leave it.
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    (Original post by flamingmoe)
    Does my background matter ? Did what I say not make any sense to anybody ? My advice is for you to take it or leave it.
    It's just that you come across as a 20 year old who has just started reading his third investment book, is in the habit of regurgitating whatever limited information he has acquired, and has developed a superiority complex as a result.

    The information you are spouting is very basic indeed, so I'm just trying to work out whether you're someone who is in industry and is very nicely taking the time to post on this forum, or whether you're a student and just get off on knowing marginally more than some of the other posters here.

    And to answer your question, of course your background matters.
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    (Original post by flamingmoe)
    OMG... this is ridiculous.. just read my posts and PB's.. Do I really have to spell it out for you ?? PB is back here despite all the insults to nudge you guys to realise what you are doing..

    Everybody makes money in the bull market.. - (I see what you all are gonna say about whether its bull or bear now.. THATS NOT THE POINT I'M MAKING)

    If you have a track record.. a statistically significant profitable system..then I apologise for judging to early.

    But if you are starting out and making money its easy to connect the imaginary dots and think you are the best..

    Thought you guys would have at least read some of the crap books available like come into my trading room and Van tharp stuffs that goes in to psychology.. also recommend market wizard.
    I recommend not reading Market Wizards. If you ever thought trading was sophisticated and people who made money were smart, Market Wizards will shatter that illusion horrendously. A bunch of lucky punting monkeys.
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    I find Wizards to be interesting. You get to decide whether you think they are punt monkeys are actually have a clue based off of some kind of evidence.
 
 
 
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