okay I have to write a 500 word report on the past 10 years of Economic activity in the UK.
it says to include, with charts, the rate of inflation, unemployment, interest rates, economic growth, the exchange rate with the euro.
"Make a prediction of what these main economic indicators will be on the 30 April 2011"
can someone help me please I have no idea where to start or what to write.
this is for AS economics btw.
Past ten years of Economic activity in the UK - help please watch
- Thread Starter
- 23-03-2011 22:52
- 23-03-2011 23:35
I suggest the ONS (office for national statistics), there you will find either data (which you can turn into charts yourself) or graphs for the variables you are told to look at. Once you have those, you can tell a story using the economics you have been taught so far (and some common sense).
here is the link for CPI index, they also have RPI if you have discussed the difference in class talk about both and compare.
ps download in CSV format as the data opens nicely in excel ready for you to chart it.Last edited by danny111; 23-03-2011 at 23:37.
- 24-03-2011 00:23
A simpler site (just my preference) is tradingeconomics.com, just click the UK and you can get tonnes of data which you can use for the past ten years.
In regards to the economic indicators...
Inflation is likely to remain above 3% all of 2011 no matter what monetary policy is used and is currently 4.4% according to CPI. You could perhaps include RPI to go the extra mile.
Unemployment is currently 7.9% and is likely to rise, especially with the coming cuts in the public sector. You could say that the medium to long term outlook for employment is for unemployment to fall as the private sector picks up the peices, you could evidence this with the High speed rail project and the cut in corporation tax to 23% over this parliament which is likely to lead to job creation.
Economic growth in my opinion will be lower than the 1.6% recorded in 2010 primarily due the austerity measures being introduced, however Q3 2012 should mark the return of growth due the Olympics which should increase economic growth by 0.5% and that by then the majority of public sector cuts will have been made. Growth of 2.5%+ should be recorded in 2013. You may have a differing opinion though.
The exchange rate is much more complex because while Germany is booming (4% economic growth during 2010), other countries such as Spain are stagnant (0.5% economic growth during 2010). There are continuing debt issues with Portugal, Belgium and Holland on top of Greece and Ireland. Spain is a potential issue because they too have a large fiscal defecit although national debt is still fairly low, unemployment is at a shocking 20%+ though. What you need to say here is why you think the Eurozone or UK will see a stronger currency (effectively which is going to record the highest growth).
- 24-03-2011 00:40
To help you with your future predictions (its only 1 month ahead so won't change much)
Inflation: CPI 4.4%
Interest rates: 0.5% (base rate at Bank of England)
Growth rate: not sure what they mean, most recent quarter or what? the forecast is for 1.6% growth in the year 2011
Exchange rate £1= €1.15
I wouldn't be surprised if next month is the month where rates go up to 0.75%. This will have an impact on the exchange rate, it will make the pound stronger against the Euro.
Rakas is right in what he says but a lot of those things won't have kicked in just in 1 month time by April 2011.