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What would be the consequences for Ed Miliband should Labour lose in Scotland, again? watch

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    It is an incredible moment, it seems Labour might actually lose again in a place where they used to win seats based on simply wearing the red rosette.

    The latest poll has the SNP and Labour equal on constituency vote, and the SNP is 5 points ahead on the regional vote. Compared to a few months ago, this is quite a development. Based on this poll, the SNP would emerge with 54 seats (up 7 from 2007 tally), with Labour getting 52 seats (up 6 from 2007). But the question is this: if Labour has been sliding since last month, then what will they be like come May? I can only expect the gap to widen.

    For me, to see Labour lose would be a satisfying one. The Labour party in scotland needlessly scaremonger for the sake of it, and in the past it has served them well (look as Glenrothes, and last year's general election).

    But what would this mean for Ed Miliband? If Iain Gray can't get away with scaremongering and saying "No cuts! Ever! I promise! Even though the block grant is being cut!", then what of Ed Miliband? Will he wake up, realising that he can't dupe the rest of the UK if he can't do it in Scotland?
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    The thing is, Labour would still dominate scotland in a general election.
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    In some parts of Glasgow and Edinburgh you could put a monkey in a labour rosette and it would win. Anything than a labour government should be seen as a failure for labour as they have so much residual support up here
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    I can't believe I've watched this happen, if it does occur its an utter embarrassment for them as far as I'm concerned. A couple of months ago they were around 15 points ahead, they looked like they were going to get either a majority or near one, to go from that to this is just incredible.

    But Salmond is going to have a rough year next year if he is able to pull this off considering he will have to finally make cuts, a lot of them.
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    (Original post by WelshBluebird)
    The thing is, Labour would still dominate scotland in a general election.
    But here is the thing - if they are defeated so badly in 2011, and the SNP continue their support for over 4 years, then surely they could take Labour out in 2015? Labour made a lot of promises last year, a lot of which were lies. Mainly spread in Glasgow-type areas.
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    (Original post by Stanley Baldwin)
    But here is the thing - if they are defeated so badly in 2011, and the SNP continue their support for over 4 years, then surely they could take Labour out in 2015? Labour made a lot of promises last year, a lot of which were lies. Mainly spread in Glasgow-type areas.
    I doubt it tbh.

    Using wales an example, Plaid Cymru do pretty well in the assembly elections (15 seats, around 22% of the vote) and have been in power with Labour for the last 4 years. However, in last years general election, they did pretty poorly (3 seats, around 11% of the vote).

    While in the long term, I do think Plaid and the SNP could be more powerful, certainly in the short term, they aren't really going to do better than Labour IMO.
    Although obviously the SNP is more powerful in Scotland than Plaid are in Wales.
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    Whoever wins power in Scotland is screwed come next year. They'll have to make huge cuts, whether they like it or not.
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    (Original post by WelshBluebird)
    I doubt it tbh.

    Using wales an example, Plaid Cymru do pretty well in the assembly elections (15 seats, around 22% of the vote) and have been in power with Labour for the last 4 years. However, in last years general election, they did pretty poorly (3 seats, around 11% of the vote).

    While in the long term, I do think Plaid and the SNP could be more powerful, certainly in the short term, they aren't really going to do better than Labour IMO.
    Although obviously the SNP is more powerful in Scotland than Plaid are in Wales.
    That was largely due to Labour scaremongering though. It was quite bad in Scotland, so I can't imagine how the Plaid people were affected in comparison. Put it this way, the SNP were leading Labour quite highly up untill 2010, then Labour started scaremongering, which led to that lead collapsing.
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    As we saw, consequences will never be the same
 
 
 
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