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The Future of the Euro watch

  • View Poll Results: Future of the Euro?
    1-3 years, the end is now in sight
    2
    6.45%
    5-10 years max, it's only a matter of time
    6
    19.35%
    20+ years / longterm - the Euro is here to stay
    23
    74.19%

    • Thread Starter
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    Just a simple poll, I'm just curious about your opinions. After all the consistent economic and political crises within the EU and its members, how long do you think it will last? Do you agree with all the speculators who say that it's only a few years even before it just implodes, or do you think there is now too much to lose for EU nations and it would be too costly to break up?
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    11
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    I think the Euro is the first step to pan-European statehood; therefore: indefinitely.
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    19
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    Every currency goes through crises at some point. I see no reason why it should be especially dangerous for the Euro. I think it'll be here for the long-term, although I can't foresee Britain joining up now.
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    17
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    Much like the ERM in the 80's, I think the Euro will fail. Either it will collapse due to the weak economies of Europe or the Germans will leave after getting fed up of funding the whole project, which will mean the end.



    When it will fail is another question
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    I don't see it failing, it's gone through it's worst patch so far with the Greek Sovereign Debt Crisis and the Irish Tiger's Death, so it's easy to call it inevitable failure but it's back on it's feet and looks to be fine in the future as long as they're cautious about letting new weak economies on to the Euro. If anything this will strengthen the Euro, give experience to the ECB and a little dash of useful realism in Frankfurt.
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    A lot of economic commentators have been predicting that it will collapse and I can see the real dangers. But then probably the best comment that summed it up was when I heard an interview with John Major where he was asked about his thoughts on the future of it, he said yes the Euro faced very real risks, but he didn't think it would fail because the consequences of failure were so severe that the countries inside have too much of a vested interest in holding it together, ie they will do whatever it takes.

    I think if they're going to hold it together they will need to hold everybody in it. When one country falls out it will send a bad sign that makes investors think the Euro is in danger and then it will become a self fulfilling prophecy, they will drop like dominos.

    Greece, Ireland and Portugal are pretty much bust, the rates on their borrowing have got pushed up too much and they are still needing to borrow too much, it is only a matter of time before they have to face up to the facts they are going to have to default to some extent and restructure their debts. That will be the next crisis for the Euro. All of this will put more pressure on Germany to shell out bail out cash. If Spain gets into the same pickle then there really will be trouble.

    The problem with Greece is its so volatile, if they end up defaulting and have to go through another round of austerity there might be enough political turmoil that they end up pulling out of the Euro and that will be the first domino to go.
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    15
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    Here to stay.

    Not only is it now the most traded and most printed currency in the world (almost €1tn is in circulation, more than even USD) but it's far too politically important for the EU to even consider letting fail.

    The sterling is going through a rough patch at the moment too, but you don't see many politicians arguing that we should abandon it. All currencies have problems from time to time. Err, aside from China's, and even then that's only because they're illegally manipulating it's value. The addition of new, robust mixed sector economies like Poland and the Czech Republic in a few years time will help alleviate the problems that we've seen with the Euro so far - the traditional focus on manufacturing in countries like Bulgaria and Poland will help add some real value to the Euro.

    Frankly the USD has far more problems on the horizon than the Euro; it's value has been slipping away for some time.
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    As China, India, and the rest of Asia rise up as superpowers, and as America falls down the food chain, Europe will be forced to become more cohesive and thus the Euro will be here to stay but also become a major player.
    • Political Ambassador
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    18
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    Political Ambassador
    It will ether fail horribly in the next five years or become stronger than ever. Really it depends on Germany and how they react to Portugal and Ireland maybe Greece and Spain needing more bailouts.
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    0
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    It's here to stay. Germany, France and to an extent, the UK, have far too much invested in its future success for it to fail.
 
 
 
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