Obama will win, but not through the virtue of his own policies or track record, which is rather average at best IMHO. His victory will be assured through the lack of electability from the alternative republican candidate. Firstly, Romney doesn't particularly play the game of balancing himself between his parties far right base and more moderate counterparts very well, hence is infamy as the master of the flip-flop. He seems to have overlooked the fact that die hard republicans want Obama out no matter what. They despise him. So he doesn't need to particularly appeal to the hardcore sects of his party as ultimately, they'll vote for him regardless purely because he isn't Obama.
Secondly, as an individual, he doesn't have the same likeability, charisma or pazaz that Obama does which, whilst sounding trivial, can make a difference at the ballot box amongst fence sitting independents which ultimately are the groups which are going to win or lose him the election.
Finally, and most importantly, he's found wanting among crucial minority voters such as Latino's and African Americans. Unless he can rack up some points among those demographics, he hasn't got a hope of beating Obama. Obama's success last election was built primarily on these demographics and the huge majorities he held over their votes compared to the republicans. Romney has to make a dent in those majorities but unfortunately his reluctance to stray to far away form his hardcore GOP base is a massive roadblock.