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    (Original post by pane123)
    Of course, I have losing days all the time and have had some horrendous losing runs.

    Obviously you need to be making the right bets, but you also need to make sure you have a big enough bank and a solid staking plan so that you can take the rough with the smooth.

    Betting is just a case of simple mathematics to me - if I'm betting on things at a bigger price than they should be, then I'm going to win.

    If we played a game where I had 3 cups and 1 of the cups had a ball under them, what would you expect the odds to be on you guessing the right cup? Obviously the odds should be 3/1, so imagine someone offered 4/1. You won't win every time, but in the long run you will win and would be a fool not to take 4/1.

    That's effectively what I see myself as doing.
    Yeah, I play the same way, I win big, and I find that when I feel a losing streak is on, I basically lessen my stakes, until things pick up again and I am on a run.

    As much as the bookies win, they do get lucky sometimes - case in point: 10 man norway scoring a goal against holland with 1 SOT.
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    (Original post by SloaneRanger)
    Im happy if I can take £20,000 - £25,000 a year....thats my expectations... I was happy with close to £16,000 last year
    good luck mate.
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    (Original post by pane123)
    What's your story with betting? Were you the guy who posted about statistical significance?
    indeed I was
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    (Original post by Stevo112)
    indeed I was
    They were great posts, you clearly know what you are talking about. I wouldn't bother analysing someone's picks until I had 1,000 of them.
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    (Original post by SloaneRanger)
    Im happy if I can take £20,000 - £25,000 a year....thats my expectations... I was happy with close to £16,000 last year.

    I would never play poker for money other than just for fun online $10/20 once in a while. Just doesn't appeal to me....Im a member of Chinawhite, I pay £400 a year for, member of Roof Gardens,lol.....thats another point you can make money off the membership you can bring 3 guests in with you, just charge your friends, you skip the queue....
    well if you can do it then fair play to you!!

    But for the fact that bookmakers exist to make money means that you seriously have to have an edge over them, which in my experience of working in the industry and of mathematics is pretty hard to attain.

    Unless you are laying?


    I would be interested to see a profit/time graph because otherwise you are just talking about numbers which nobody can back up! I could say that I have made $100k profit on poker, would you believe me?
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    (Original post by Stevo112)
    well if you can do it then fair play to you!!

    But for the fact that bookmakers exist to make money means that you seriously have to have an edge over them, which in my experience of working in the industry and of mathematics is pretty hard to attain.

    Unless you are laying?


    I would be interested to see a profit/time graph because otherwise you are just talking about numbers which nobody can back up! I could say that I have made $100k profit on poker, would you believe me?
    Always willing to listen and learn to others, if i could gain a further edge and earn another £1 on top. I am all ears open, same as probably anyone in here. Of course I lay some bets, like I told you about the Louisville situation.....sitting here with my slip....still have a few hours before i make the final decision. If sit here uploading screenshots of every bet we could be hear for days. Ive already shown like £500 of cricket there from the £1000 i got back from the £450 or so outlay.....once an events finished i don't think about it ever again.....I don't live in the past, otherwise your going to be chasing loses. The best thing to do after a loss is to focus your mind on something else! Don't chase....
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    (Original post by pane123)
    They were great posts, you clearly know what you are talking about. I wouldn't bother analysing someone's picks until I had 1,000 of them.
    and heres me thinking you were about to attack me! lol.


    Well, I think every gambler has some form of delusion and the point at which you become profitable is the point where you can look on your bets critically and make a judgement. It just so happens that statistical tests can make that for you.

    I really like the idea of making money against bookies. I have no desire to make money though. If I did i'd be with my mates in manchester playing poker 60 hours a week and earning 100k+ a year (or something like that haha).
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    (Original post by SloaneRanger)
    Always willing to listen and learn to others, if i could gain a further edge and earn another £1 on top. I am all ears open, same as probably anyone in here. Of course I lay some bets, like I told you about the Louisville situation.....sitting here with my slip....still have a few hours before i make the final decision. If sit here uploading screenshots of every bet we could be hear for days. Ive already shown like £500 of cricket there from the £1000 i got back from the £450 or so outlay.....once an events finished i don't think about it ever again.....I don't live in the past, otherwise your going to be chasing loses. The best thing to do after a loss is to focus your mind on something else! Don't chase....
    well if you are laying and hedging etc then fair play.

    I just thought you were betting on the nose tbh.
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    (Original post by SloaneRanger)
    Always willing to listen and learn to others, if i could gain a further edge and earn another £1 on top. I am all ears open, same as probably anyone in here. Of course I lay some bets, like I told you about the Louisville situation.....sitting here with my slip....still have a few hours before i make the final decision. If sit here uploading screenshots of every bet we could be hear for days. Ive already shown like £500 of cricket there from the £1000 i got back from the £450 or so outlay.....once an events finished i don't think about it ever again.....I don't live in the past, otherwise your going to be chasing loses. The best thing to do after a loss is to focus your mind on something else! Don't chase....
    Let me know when you have betted on the basketball. And who on.
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    (Original post by Stevo112)
    well if you are laying and hedging etc then fair play.

    I just thought you were betting on the nose tbh.
    is laying the same as cashing in?
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    (Original post by fat_hobbit)
    Let me know when you have betted on the basketball. And who on.
    Will have decided in the next 20 mins, just listening to yesterdays podcasts.
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    (Original post by Stevo112)
    and heres me thinking you were about to attack me! lol.


    Well, I think every gambler has some form of delusion and the point at which you become profitable is the point where you can look on your bets critically and make a judgement. It just so happens that statistical tests can make that for you.

    I really like the idea of making money against bookies. I have no desire to make money though. If I did i'd be with my mates in manchester playing poker 60 hours a week and earning 100k+ a year (or something like that haha).
    Absolutely. While I can't claim to have done advanced statistical tests, I just need to know I'm finding value and I can safely say I have done so over 25,000 bets. That's actually quite scary now that I think about it.

    I'm really struggling to get bets on at the moment, so have been looking at investing in tipsters so I can bet on sites that don't ban winners. This would involve betting on sports I know nothing about and I hate the idea of that. I don't think I'm going to go ahead with it, but there are 3 or 4 out there with <1% chance of having made profit by luck.
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    (Original post by fat_hobbit)
    is laying the same as cashing in?
    I didn't think you layed bets tbh....

    not enough statistical insignificance for you
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    (Original post by pane123)
    Absolutely. While I can't claim to have done advanced statistical tests, I just need to know I'm finding value and I can safely say I have done so over 25,000 bets. That's actually quite scary now that I think about it.

    I'm really struggling to get bets on at the moment, so have been looking at investing in tipsters so I can bet on sites that don't ban winners. This would involve betting on sports I know nothing about and I hate the idea of that. I don't think I'm going to go ahead with it, but there are 3 or 4 out there with <1% chance of having made profit by luck.
    I feel sorry for the people that pay for these tipsters, look at this, ive seen legitimate people think there getting an edge.....

    http://www.vegasinsider.com/college-.../date/03-27-13
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    (Original post by Stevo112)
    I didn't think you layed bets tbh....

    not enough statistical insignificance for you
    we need a bigger bankroll to be bigger players....:cool:
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    (Original post by Stevo112)
    I didn't think you layed bets tbh....

    not enough statistical insignificance for you
    I tend to hedge/cash in, gaining 1 quid is better then losing 20.

    Its the only reason why I havent lost all my winnings.

    Betting tbh, is hard work.
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    I stopped playing the lottery the moment I did a quick calculation, and realised that in 9 months I had gambled about £180 (roughly £5 a week), and only won £10 in all that time!!!
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    (Original post by pane123)
    Absolutely. While I can't claim to have done advanced statistical tests, I just need to know I'm finding value and I can safely say I have done so over 25,000 bets. That's actually quite scary now that I think about it.

    I'm really struggling to get bets on at the moment, so have been looking at investing in tipsters so I can bet on sites that don't ban winners. This would involve betting on sports I know nothing about and I hate the idea of that. I don't think I'm going to go ahead with it, but there are 3 or 4 out there with <1% chance of having made profit by luck.
    such a sample would be very interesting to see.


    Just a tip though, if you are making it serious you should keep records for profitability.

    A nice little excel spreadsheet and graph, not strictly to prove to others, but so you can see where you are at and whether your money is being invested wisely.

    In the business of gambling the use of statistics is such a powerful tool and tbh I do think people who don't utilise anything like that have no right to call themselves any more intelligent than other people! It is ignorant really. Respect the bookies and the people working for them because they are out to take your money. Any and every edge is needed to beat them.
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    (Original post by SloaneRanger)
    we need a bigger bankroll to be bigger players....:cool:
    yeah very hard to make a lot of money if you are betting 10/20 quid stakes.
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    (Original post by fat_hobbit)
    I tend to hedge/cash in, gaining 1 quid is better then losing 20.

    Its the only reason why I havent lost all my winnings.

    Betting tbh, is hard work.
    an honest assessment!
 
 
 
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