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    Best way to look at variance is the weather,lol.......you can go hot and you can go cold!
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    (Original post by Movember)
    http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/17...thing-1316832/

    i thought the name was familiar
    You must be addicted to 2p2 if you recognize me from there because I have like 5 posts.

    But yeah, the one post in that thread kind of illustrates variance. Getting it in with KK against a calling range of probably JJ+, AK and a couple of 4bet-folding combinations and losing because I ran into aces is variance. The AK one is not necessarily as clear cut but again it's a pretty defensible play that didn't work. Randomly betting on favourites and losing isn't really variance, it's just the house realising its edge.
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    (Original post by The Troll Toll)
    You must be addicted to 2p2 if you recognize me from there because I have like 5 posts.

    But yeah, the one post in that thread kind of illustrates variance. Getting it in with KK against a calling range of probably JJ+, AK and a couple of 4bet-folding combinations and losing because I ran into aces is variance. The AK one is not necessarily as clear cut but again it's a pretty defensible play that didn't work. Randomly betting on favourites and losing isn't really variance, it's just the house realising its edge.
    i saw that thread in the goals and challenges section one night. that forum goes insanely fast!

    poker apparently isnt what it once was. the tables at the micro level are infested with nits and 21/18 tags who dont give their money away easily. the higher stakes players are much better these days. there are fewer fish, the games are very tough and on top of that you have to battle the rake.

    AK, JJ and even QQ won't play well against the all in ranges of solid micro level players, many of whom will only get it all in with KK or AA. Against short stackers, your all in range can widen. It is very much player dependent.
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    (Original post by Movember)
    i saw that thread in the goals and challenges section one night. that forum goes insanely fast!

    poker apparently isnt what it once was. the tables at the micro level are infested with nits and 21/18 tags who dont give their money away easily. the higher stakes players are much better these days. there are fewer fish, the games are very tough and on top of that you have to battle the rake.
    This is very true. I'm watching a DeucesCracked video where Kristy Arnett plays 50nl in 2008 and it is so much softer than 10nl in 2013 it's unreal. On the other hand live games are juicy and any 10nl reg will crush them. At least the ones I've played in.


    AK, JJ and even QQ won't play well against the all in ranges of solid micro level players, many of whom will only get it all in with KK or AA. Against short stackers, your all in range can widen. It is very much player dependent.
    The thing is I'm not necessarily playing against an all in range, I'm playing against a 4betting range. The better players are capable of 4betting light, especially in certain situations. As you go up the stakes people's all in ranges widen as they 3bet lighter. Blind v blind at 25nl is ridiculous, some regs will 3bet well over half your steal attempts and even 5bet shove light. I picked off a guy 5bet shoving AJo when I had AK on the button and he was a reg. But then he spiked his jack, which combined with losing my new job a few days earlier tilted the **** out of me and put me off poker for like a week and I think 25nl forever. So far.

    A lot of these micro regs are playing very aggresively pre-flop because they know that aggression is good and pre-flop is the easiest street. At 2nl they are nittier pre and pretty much any 3bet there is aces or maybe kings.

    Anyway I'll put some decent volume down tomorrow and see what happens
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    (Original post by The Troll Toll)
    You must be addicted to 2p2 if you recognize me from there because I have like 5 posts.

    But yeah, the one post in that thread kind of illustrates variance. Getting it in with KK against a calling range of probably JJ+, AK and a couple of 4bet-folding combinations and losing because I ran into aces is variance. The AK one is not necessarily as clear cut but again it's a pretty defensible play that didn't work. Randomly betting on favourites and losing isn't really variance, it's just the house realising its edge.
    Have you also noticed that quite a significant number of the best poker players are actually ex tcg players that under the concept of game theory.....i.e. ex Magic the Gathering, Yu-Gi-Oh, Pokemon.....

    http://sports.espn.go.com/espn/poker...ary&id=4259905

    Old article, but if you can't deal with high pressure situations give up....if you have no concept of winning.... give up..... professional gamblers can deal with high pressure.
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    (Original post by CoolStoryBroo)
    Put it in my ISA. It's now £4700
    get a stocks and shares isa or dump it in zopa and funding circle
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    (Original post by rjm101)
    I'll stick to stocks, bonds and index funds thank you. You always hear about the successful phew and little about the many who loose it all. Also as someone whos not a particular sports fanatic this doesnt really help anyway.
    learn random walk theory

    with the stock market you are fighting with the cream of the crop

    with gambling you are fighting against the murky bottom

    Can you think of a reason why i have been limited at a 5 bookie shops?(£10 bets)
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    (Original post by fat_hobbit)
    TBH some of my bets that i have lost, its like WTF, how?

    Team has 10 men, one shot on target, they score

    or

    that example.

    Unlucky, if anything.
    It might be unlucky, but let's just say we back a team at odds of 2.0 or evens and let's presume these odds reflect the true probability of the outcome, which is 50%.

    If we place this bet 1,000 times we would expect the team to win 50% of the time and not win 50% of the time.

    When they don't win it does not matter if they lost 10-0 or lost 1-0 after a last minute penalty which should never have been given. I will concede it's hard, but if you are genuinely finding value bets and understand what value means, then you should be able to emotionally detach yourself from this "luck".

    I had 18 winning months in a row until January, which was a horror month. However, I knew the profit I made over the 18 winning months far exceeded what the percentages dictated I should have won, so I just regarded January as my results beginning to balance themselves out, so to speak.

    Percentages don't lie and given time will reveal themselves, so as long as you are making the right bets and have a sensible staking plan you will win in the long run.

    I could quite easily sit and wait for Man U to play teams in the bottom 3 at Old Trafford and put huge sums on because surely they will win? They probably will, but the chances the odds offer value are slim, so I will lose in the long run.
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    (Original post by Dukeofwembley)
    learn random walk theory

    with the stock market you are fighting with the cream of the crop

    with gambling you are fighting against the murky bottom

    Can you think of a reason why i have been limited at a 5 bookie shops?(£10 bets)
    That is true, unless your a high end trader, your not going to be making coin. I don't have a maths or finance degree from LSE, so I gave up trying to be the Barcelona of that, rather play direct and get ££ from sports betting far more enjoyment as well! Especially if you do it properly, less regulated. To just open up a new stocks shares isa for this year, I had so many regulatory questions, because i work in a regulated role, id rather deal in bets.
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    Also tell me what stocks make 5-10% a month or even higher,

    i had a friend who made 10 % of 25 grand in 1 month(chelts festival)

    what stocks and shared offer this return?
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    (Original post by Dukeofwembley)
    Also tell me what stocks make 5-10% a month or even higher,

    i had a friend who made 10 % of 25 grand in 1 month(chelts festival)

    what stocks and shared offer this return?
    None,lol......the closes thing is spread betting, that is considered gambling under regulated by the gambling commission. Poor guy, you would have to say, white collar wannabe...
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    Playing games like roulette is pants on head retarded, you're not going to make any money out of it, do the maths. I think the only acceptable form of gambling is poker, and even then you shouldn't put real money into it unti you know the game; You will lose money when you first start playing, everyone does.
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    (Original post by Flying Cookie)
    Even sports betting can have a bit more logic than roulette.
    It has a lot more logic.
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    (Original post by DaveSmith99)
    Playing games like roulette is pants on head retarded, you're not going to make any money out of it, do the maths. I think the only acceptable form of gambling is poker, and even then you shouldn't put real money into it unti you know the game; You will lose money when you first start playing, everyone does.
    I disagree there, I hate poker, I gave up when I realised when I wasn't going to make at least a £1,000+ from it.

    http://www.sharkscope.com/#Player-St...layers/NitishD

    If your intelligent enough, you won't lose money, I started playing and I didn't have a clue what the hell was going on. Playing decent stakes as well if you look.
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    (Original post by DaveSmith99)
    Playing games like roulette is pants on head retarded, you're not going to make any money out of it, do the maths. I think the only acceptable form of gambling is poker, and even then you shouldn't put real money into it until you know the game; You will lose money when you first start playing, everyone does.
    "Acceptable" is a poor choice of word, but I know what you mean.

    You are, however, quite wrong. All betting is about maths and if you gain an edge then you will win - this is possible in many forms of betting.
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    (Original post by Flying Cookie)
    I won £120 on Obama's re-election. I love politics bets because there is a way to judge and estimate the outcome in a way non-existent for roulette gambling - that's why politics bets are so scarce whereas simple gambling is everywhere. Even sports betting can have a bit more logic than roulette, so change your niche if you must, but really you shouldn't be pouring so much into gambling in the first place.
    That was like a dead cert that bet.....paddy power had it 4/6 2-3 weeks before the election dropped to 4/11 came to a point they went in to 1/4 - 1/6 and then they just paid out.... you just have to look at the individual state betting 1/5 - 1/6 those were dead certs if you go on them in certain strongholds. Didn't take a genius to work them out just a daily newpaper and CNN.
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    (Original post by pane123)
    "Acceptable" is a poor choice of word, but I know what you mean.

    You are, however, quite wrong. All betting is about maths and if you gain an edge then you will win - this is possible in many forms of betting.
    In things like roulette, theres no edge to gain, its pure luck. In games like blackjack, you're playing against the house, and the house has an advantage. When you play poker, you're playing against other poker players and not the house, the house just take rakes so make its profit. Because you're playing against other players, if you know the game better than them and can read them better than they can read you, its easy money. I don't play poker btw as i'm just not good enough, I know people who makes decent amounts of money fairly easily playing the game though.
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    (Original post by DaveSmith99)
    In things like roulette, theres no edge to gain, its pure luck. In games like blackjack, you're playing against the house, and the house has an advantage. When you play poker, you're playing against other poker players and not the house, the house just take rakes so make its profit. Because you're playing against other players, if you know the game better than them and can read them better than they can read you, its easy money. I don't play poker btw as i'm just not good enough, I know people who makes decent amounts of money fairly easily playing the game though.
    Best thing to judge a player if there making money is to use tools like Sharkscope, they have the whole database of online poker tournaments. I just love shutting people up that say they make money, when in effect they are down big time. It hilarious hearing stories about it, people getting into debt.
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    (Original post by DaveSmith99)
    In things like roulette, theres no edge to gain, its pure luck. In games like blackjack, you're playing against the house, and the house has an advantage. When you play poker, you're playing against other poker players and not the house, the house just take rakes so make its profit. Because you're playing against other players, if you know the game better than them and can read them better than they can read you, its easy money. I don't play poker btw as i'm just not good enough, I know people who makes decent amounts of money fairly easily playing the game though.
    The house edge in blackjack can be overcome, but that's another (long) story.

    Anyway, if you look at earlier posts in this thread, you will see that the main topic of conversation is sports betting. When I say you can find an edge in other forms of gambling, I was meaning sports betting, not casino games.
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    (Original post by pane123)
    The house edge in blackjack can be overcome, but that's another (long) story.

    Anyway, if you look at earlier posts in this thread, you will see that the main topic of conversation is sports betting. When I say you can find an edge in other forms of gambling, I was meaning sports betting, not casino games.
    Yeah its possible to make money in sports betting, but its much more of a risk, I know good gamblers who have lost thousands sports betting as sport can be so wildly unpredictable. If you know what you're doing with poker though you can just sit back, play tight, get your money in good and play the maths.
 
 
 
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