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How will the Liberal Democrat party look in 2015? Watch

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    It's something I've been wondering about. I'm guessing we'll probably have a minority government come 2015 general election time as the Lib Dems will be butchered beyond repair to play kingmaker. Does anyone think UKIP will overtake them as the alternative party to Labour/Conservatives?
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    (Original post by thedarklord3)
    It's something I've been wondering about. I'm guessing we'll probably have a minority government come 2015 general election time as the Lib Dems will be butchered beyond repair to play kingmaker. Does anyone think UKIP will overtake them as the alternative party to Labour/Conservatives?
    UKIP have no chance in getting a Seat but will have an effect. At this stage it is a Labour majority, small or a balanced parliament.

    Don't write the LD's off
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    (Original post by thedarklord3)
    It's something I've been wondering about. I'm guessing we'll probably have a minority government come 2015 general election time as the Lib Dems will be butchered beyond repair to play kingmaker. Does anyone think UKIP will overtake them as the alternative party to Labour/Conservatives?
    A UKIP and Conservative coalition could a possibility if UKIP's popularity grows

    Personally I wouldn't want Ed milliband as PM!
    Or Clegg for that matter!
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    (Original post by Morgsie)
    UKIP have no chance in getting a Seat but will have an effect. At this stage it is a Labour majority, small or a balanced parliament.

    Don't write the LD's off
    But will the British public trust Labour enough to allow them a majority? I still think it's a tie between Labour and the Tories at the moment, neither are popular enough with the country to form a majority government.

    (Original post by a729)
    A UKIP and Conservative coalition could a possibility if UKIP's popularity grows

    Personally I wouldn't want Ed milliband as PM!
    Or Clegg for that matter!
    I think UKIP can challenge the Lib Dems, if only they can convince the country that they have policies other than just withdrawing from the EU.

    All that aside, the Lib Dems did pretty well in holding on to Eastleigh despite the controversy of the previous MP.
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    The lib dems will defo get punished at the next election, everyone will be gunning for them and deservedly so. I hope Nick Clegg enjoyed his time as David Cameron's poodle as he's ruined his party
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    (Original post by thedarklord3)
    It's something I've been wondering about. I'm guessing we'll probably have a minority government come 2015 general election time as the Lib Dems will be butchered beyond repair to play kingmaker. Does anyone think UKIP will overtake them as the alternative party to Labour/Conservatives?
    Not a chance, Ukip will gain but they won't get double digits for the simple reason that a vote for Ukip in 2015 is a vote for Labour. The Liberal Democrats will also do better than current polling suggests.

    My prediction...

    Labour: 36-39%
    Tories: 31-34%
    Lib Dems: 16-19%
    Ukip: 6-9%

    A small Labour majority is the likely outcome and Ukip will struggle to gain even a single seat.

    (Original post by a729)
    A UKIP and Conservative coalition could a possibility if UKIP's popularity grows

    Personally I wouldn't want Ed milliband as PM!
    Or Clegg for that matter!
    Not a chance in 2015, on universal swing Ukip would require over 20% just to gain a seat. Were Ukip to gain 20% of the vote then the Tories would be so weak (likely under 30%) that Labour would have a massive majority.

    Aside from which two factors are in Cameron's favour and against Ukip...

    1) The Tories will do what Salmond did in Scotland and make it presidential - do you want Cameron as PM or Miliband? Polling indicates that this will aid Cameron and this will draw some support back to the Tories

    2) Half of Ukip support comes from ex-Tories, Cameron will say "A vote for Ukip is a vote for Labour", this will ensure the Tory vote holds up at the expense of Ukip

    You will gain and you may even win a hand-full of seats if targeted enough but lets not get delusional and suggest you will be any serious coalition prospect.

    Frankly i think the Greens have more chance of adding Norwich South than Ukip do winning a seat.
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    (Original post by Rakas21)
    Not a chance, Ukip will gain but they won't get double digits for the simple reason that a vote for Ukip in 2015 is a vote for Labour. The Liberal Democrats will also do better than current polling suggests.

    My prediction...

    Labour: 36-39%
    Tories: 31-34%
    Lib Dems: 16-19%
    Ukip: 6-9%

    A small Labour majority is the likely outcome and Ukip will struggle to gain even a single seat.



    Not a chance in 2015, on universal swing Ukip would require over 20% just to gain a seat. Were Ukip to gain 20% of the vote then the Tories would be so weak (likely under 30%) that Labour would have a massive majority.

    Aside from which two factors are in Cameron's favour and against Ukip...

    1) The Tories will do what Salmond did in Scotland and make it presidential - do you want Cameron as PM or Miliband? Polling indicates that this will aid Cameron and this will draw some support back to the Tories

    2) Half of Ukip support comes from ex-Tories, Cameron will say "A vote for Ukip is a vote for Labour", this will ensure the Tory vote holds up at the expense of Ukip

    You will gain and you may even win a hand-full of seats if targeted enough but lets not get delusional and suggest you will be any serious coalition prospect.

    Frankly i think the Greens have more chance of adding Norwich South than Ukip do winning a seat.
    In Eastleigh UKIP came 2nd

    Plus they will probably storm home in the 2014 MEP elections

    UKIP has been the 4th on popular vote for a while-they just need to start focusing their votes in key areas-like the greens did to win Brighton

    Tbh UKIP could maybe claim the votes of people who dislike/distrust the EU but would never vote tory
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    (Original post by a729)
    In Eastleigh UKIP came 2nd

    Plus they will probably storm home in the 2014 MEP elections

    UKIP has been the 4th on popular vote for a while-they just need to start focusing their votes in key areas-like the greens did to win Brighton

    Tbh UKIP could maybe claim the votes of people who dislike/distrust the EU but would never vote tory
    Yes but with a majority of 80 voters in by-elections can vote Ukip knowing that Labour will not be in government tomorrow. Come election day there is no way that Ukip will even have half the national Tory vote.

    Yup but largely irrelevant given that European elections have a similar turnout to local elections and that the system is proportional.

    I agree but as yet the Greens are likely ahead of you in the likely-hood of gaining a seat simply because they know how to play the system whilst Ukip support is much broader.

    I agree, the Ukip vote will probably double (that would require 7%), perhaps a little more.
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    (Original post by a729)
    In Eastleigh UKIP came 2nd

    Plus they will probably storm home in the 2014 MEP elections

    UKIP has been the 4th on popular vote for a while-they just need to start focusing their votes in key areas-like the greens did to win Brighton

    Tbh UKIP could maybe claim the votes of people who dislike/distrust the EU but would never vote tory
    As of now, William Hill will offer you 8-1 odds on UKIP winning more than one seat at the next general election. If you're so confident, feel free to rake in the big bucks.
 
 
 
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