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Threat of North Korea watch

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    Hey, North Korea has recently said they could attack today or whenever they want. What do you think? Bellicose rhetoric (as it has been in the past) or something more serious?

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    They have no reason to attack. If they become genuinely aggressive then China will stop defending them and UN forces may end up deposing the Kim dynasty. They want to stay in power more than anything, so can't risk a war.
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    (Original post by Hilly1)
    Hey, North Korea has recently said they could attack today or whenever they want. What do you think? Bellicose rhetoric (as it has been in the past) or something more serious?

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    There is no point in a North Korea First Strike. If that happened Kim Jong Un, his merry men and the rest of North Korea would be wiped off the map by NATO.

    If the US went into a full scale conflict, most likely half of Europe would get dragged in as well. Very few countries could fight off the combined forces of the US and Europe.

    I mean only Russia and China combined could possibly give the US and Europe a good fight but it would essentially mean the end of the world with nukes flying in every direction.
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    I believe that the North Koreans are close to imploding as sanctions have cut off the supplies of oil and food they were hitherto getting in aid. (The sanctions being a direct result of nuclear testing). Facing collapse, I think the regime is resorting to sabre rattling in order to try and get the oil and food restarted.

    If the Americans and the South Koreans refuse to give in to the sabre rattling I think one or more of the North Korean generals will remove Kim Jong-Un to preserve the grip of the communist party on power and save their privileged positions. Additionally, the family dynasty holds a lot of power away from the spotlight, for example Kim Jong-Un's aunt and uncle, Kim Kyong-Hui and Jang Sung-Taek respectively. A removal of Kim Jong-Un could see one of these chappies step up to the 'Dear Leader' position as they have a 'pedigree' as far as the Party is concerned. If the regime implodes, the prospects for the current leadership look bleak. They will either be lynched by their own starving population or go into exile in somewhere like China where they will end up with a far lower standard of living and no power.

    And once Kim Jong-Un has been taken out of the equation, I suspect the new leadership will negotiate away their nuclear weapons in return for a new treaty with the south guaranteeing them the flow of oil and food they need to stay in power.
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    Still think it's rhetoric. Hard to know what Jong Un wants but probably a combination of:

    a) Asserting his position of authority with the NK military leaders, he is young enough to be a grandson to most of them. if the west backs down, he has proven himself.

    b) Consolidating control over his own people by instilling the fear of war from the US, diverting attention from any internal crisis (like UN sanctions) and proving he is a worthy and strong leader.

    c) Sending a message to China saying NK does not need their support.

    d) Forcing the US to the negotiating table on NK's terms thus demonstrating he can react to UN sanctions with impunity.

    e) Announcing to world that NK is a nuclear power and must be taken seriously.

    f) Eventually the war games will end at which point Jong Un will declare victory.


    Diplomacy will need a solution to allow both sides some kind of back-down without losing face.

    Of course the danger is Jong-Un has let power go to his head, believes his own rhetoric and thinks NK is a fully nuclear capable state and may take things to a point where a military response however small escalates from there.

    I don't think sinking another Cheonan or bombing a small island will go without a stern response in kind this time.
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    (Original post by uberteknik)
    Still think it's rhetoric. Hard to know what Jong Un wants but probably a combination of:

    a) Asserting his position of authority with the NK military leaders, he is young enough to be a grandson to most of them. if the west backs down, he has proven himself.

    b) Consolidating control over his own people by instilling the fear of war from the US, diverting attention from any internal crisis (like UN sanctions) and proving he is a worthy and strong leader.
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    Completely agree with you. Instilled in the North Korean psyche from school age is a fear of the Americans, which is propagated by (very nearly justified) propaganda. The Americans bombed the living hell out of the North Koreans during the conflict in the 50's, so much so that (from memory) 80% of their infrastructure was levelled. As North Korea is so insular, this has stayed very fresh in the national mind for the last 55-ish years.
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    I'm a South Korean but I've been living here (England) for nine years, so obviously I don't really know much about what REALLY happening over there in Korea but my parents said that it's nothing to get worried about cos North Korea have been threatening South Korea for decades but they've actually never taken any serious action.

    This video is made by two Canadians who are living in Korea, so they can give you a better view of what's going on
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=if-aEz4b3vM
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    Ah, yeah. The problem is that hypothetically if China DOES decide to become involved, then what?

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    China doesn't want a conflict in Asia any more than the US or North Korea does, it's not in their interest. I suspect they'll be working very closely with the American State Department to broker a deal behind the scenes. If anything, the Chinese acting as an interlocutor might even boost relations between China and the US. If the Chinese do manage to pull off a deal, they look like the good guys, the North Koreans save face as they can say 'The Chinese, our allies, suggested this, WE decided to go ahead with it.' and the US don't appear to have lost to an almost Third World country.

    I seriously doubt North Korea will do anything more than talk a good fight. Although they apparently have 'final military clearance' for a nuclear strike, it's unlikely to take place. In two days we'll get 'We really, really mean it!' (in Korean), followed by 'Grrrrr.' a week later.


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    NK repositioned missiles (6,000km) to coast http://news.sky.com/story/1073563/no...reak-out-today

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