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15 years out of power for the Tories? watch

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    During the 1970s and 1980s, it was quite typical for the left to squabble amongst itself, form factions, disunite, and so on. Note the SDP breakaway from the Labour Party, militant tendency, and so on.

    In the 2010s and 2020s, I suspect that it will be conservatives who will take the reputation for political infighting, squabbling and factions. You already have the major parliamentary division between the Liberal Democrats and the Conservatives (both of which are centre-right parties).

    Then you have the split between most of the party and the social conservatives. And then the EU split within the party, and between the Conservatives and UKIP.

    On the issues of Europe, gay marriage and lords reform, the Tory Party is tearing itself apart and one wonders whether the right of the party really still has enough in common with the leadership to continue to be a single party.

    Seeing that the Conservatives have not won a parliamentary majority since 1987 and that their share of the vote has continually declined since then and they will probably lose the next election, I suspect this will continue until we see some kind of "New Conservative" rebranding and rehabilitation.
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    (Original post by AlexandrTheGreat)
    You already have the major parliamentary division between the Liberal Democrats and the Conservatives (both of which are centre-right parties).
    Liberal Democrats are not centre-right, they are classed as centre-left. That's why it was completely ridiculous for them to form a coalition with the Conservatives, as they have much more in common, politically, with the Labour Party.
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    (Original post by Dombs)
    Liberal Democrats are not centre-right, they are classed as centre-left. That's why it was completely ridiculous for them to form a coalition with the Conservatives, as they have much more in common, politically, with the Labour Party.
    I would submit that this is a great misunderstanding of modern politics, based on the fact that people associated their stance in favour of civil liberties and tuition fees. I see nothing in their policies that would identify them as in any way centre-left.

    They are, after all, a liberal party, not a labour or a socialist party. And their political philosophy is shown by their actions; Vince Cable's increase in the unfair dismissal continuity of service requirement from one year to two years is a perfect example, and that's from someone who people seem to believe is on the left of the party.

    I suspect that many young people in the 2000s just assumed they must have been a left-wing alternative to Labour, when in fact they are derived from the right-wing SDP exodus from Labour and the old Liberal Party.

    I know a lot of people were duped, but the fact is that anyone who knew and understood the history of the Lib Dem party, or who has read the Orange Book, could have entirely foreseen what happened.
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    (Original post by AlexandrTheGreat)
    Seeing that the Conservatives have not won a parliamentary majority since 1987 and that their share of the vote has continually declined since then and they will probably lose the next election, I suspect this will continue until we see some kind of "New Conservative" rebranding and rehabilitation.
    I believe Sir John Major led them to victory in 1992.
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    (Original post by meenu89)
    I believe Sir John Major led them to victory in 1992.
    During the election night, when the result was still far from clear, he said to camera, in a knowing voice, "I know we're going to win".

    Every exit poll and pre-election survey had him losing, especially in key marginals. There was an alleged 'late surge' of Tories in those marginals on the night.

    Just makes one wonder - is the count in this country always quite as clean, fair and untroubled as one hopes? Or do Florida things happen here sometimes? Surely that nice Mr Major wouldn't have stooped to using the MI5 his government had controlled since 1979 to serve their interests, would they?? Would they?
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    (Original post by Fullofsurprises)
    During the election night, when the result was still far from clear, he said to camera, in a knowing voice, "I know we're going to win".

    Every exit poll and pre-election survey had him losing, especially in key marginals. There was an alleged 'late surge' of Tories in those marginals on the night.
    Thank you. I also know Neil Kinnock held a victory rally in Sheffield a couple of nights before claiming; 'We're alright....'
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    (Original post by Fullofsurprises)
    During the election night, when the result was still far from clear, he said to camera, in a knowing voice, "I know we're going to win".

    Every exit poll and pre-election survey had him losing, especially in key marginals. There was an alleged 'late surge' of Tories in those marginals on the night.

    Just makes one wonder - is the count in this country always quite as clean, fair and untroubled as one hopes? Or do Florida things happen here sometimes? Surely that nice Mr Major wouldn't have stooped to using the MI5 his government had controlled since 1979 to serve their interests, would they?? Would they?
    I think you may be being a teensy bit paranoid. There's such a thing as faking confidence in front of the cameras, and what self respecting political candidate is going to come out on election night and say "Yep, we're boned"
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    (Original post by Fullofsurprises)
    During the election night, when the result was still far from clear, he said to camera, in a knowing voice, "I know we're going to win".

    Every exit poll and pre-election survey had him losing, especially in key marginals. There was an alleged 'late surge' of Tories in those marginals on the night.

    Just makes one wonder - is the count in this country always quite as clean, fair and untroubled as one hopes? Or do Florida things happen here sometimes? Surely that nice Mr Major wouldn't have stooped to using the MI5 his government had controlled since 1979 to serve their interests, would they?? Would they?
    Your conspiracy theories crack me up. Much of what you post is sensible but all these theories that right wingers are out to corrupt our democracy and even infiltrate this forum (:rofl:) are pretty embarrassing.
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    (Original post by hamijack)
    I think you may be being a teensy bit paranoid. There's such a thing as faking confidence in front of the cameras, and what self respecting political candidate is going to come out on election night and say "Yep, we're boned"
    I've just been trying to find the clip. I saw it the other night in one of the post-Thatcher programmes and it was definitely very odd, it wasn't fake confidence, it was like a knowing, smirking, "we know what's going on" kind of thing.
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    (Original post by meenu89)
    I believe Sir John Major led them to victory in 1992.
    He didn't only win the 1992 election, he won the largest popular mandate in British election history with over 14 million votes
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    (Original post by meenu89)
    I believe Sir John Major led them to victory in 1992.
    A typo of sorts; the point remains, they haven't won an election for 22 years.

    Somehow, I don't think that John Major's election win will do much for the Tories of the 2010s.
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    (Original post by Fullofsurprises)
    Surely that nice Mr Major wouldn't have stooped to using the MI5 his government had controlled since 1979 to serve their interests, would they?? Would they?
    How could MI5 change the results of an election?
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    (Original post by khaiser turian)
    He didn't only win the 1992 election, he won the largest popular mandate in British election history with over 14 million votes
    Incredible then that they've seen such a precipitous decline since, and that even after 13 years of Labour government, they couldn't win an outright majority.
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    (Original post by meenu89)
    I also know Neil Kinnock held a victory rally in Sheffield the night before claiming; 'We're all right....'
    There was no such rally in Sheffield the night before the 1992 election.
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    (Original post by AlexandrTheGreat)
    How could MI5 change the results of an election?
    Good question. Perhaps the answer will come out in about 100 years.
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    (Original post by khaiser turian)
    He didn't only win the 1992 election, he won the largest popular mandate in British election history with over 14 million votes
    Given the polls and surveys about him, both before and since, this is one of the reasons why the result is, to my mind, suspicious.
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    (Original post by AlexandrTheGreat)
    Seeing that the Conservatives have not won a parliamentary majority since 1987 and that their share of the vote has continually declined since then and they will probably lose the next election, I suspect this will continue until we see some kind of "New Conservative" rebranding and rehabilitation.
    This re-branding and move towards the centre has already been done by Cameron since he took leadership of the party. It failed. Right-wingers are far less tolerant of change to key Tory party policies than left-wingers are to Labour's move to the centre/right. Tory supporters have taken no time at all to defect to UKIP, and plenty still within the party are voicing their discontent.

    Left-wingers, on the other hand, continue to blindly vote Labour despite the party's complete change in focus. Even the unions still plough fund into Labour, despite the fact that Blair openly despised them.
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    (Original post by Fullofsurprises)
    Given the polls and surveys about him, both before and since, this is one of the reasons why the result is, to my mind, suspicious.
    Regardless, the point now is that the Tories seem incapable of winning post-92, is it not?
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    (Original post by TheBritishArmy)
    This re-branding and move towards the centre has already been done by Cameron since he took leadership of the party. It failed. Right-wingers are far less tolerant of change to key Tory party policies than left-wingers are to Labour's move to the centre/right. Tory supporters have taken no time at all to defect to UKIP, and plenty still within the party are voicing their discontent
    I give Cameron credit for his courageous stand against the neanderthals in hi party on gay marriage, but that's about it. On workers rights, on privatisation, etc it's the same old Nasty Party

    Left-wingers, on the other hand, continue to blindly vote Labour despite the party's complete change in focus. Even the unions still plough fund into Labour, despite the fact that Blair openly despised them.
    Blair may have despised them, but the '97-2010 period saw major increases in workers rights, discrimination legislation protecting people in the workplace, the minimum wage, and the like.

    Equally, the unions' man, Ed Milliband, routed his neoliberal, Blairite brother in the leadership contest. So why exactly is it not a party for the unions?

    The other point I'd make is that centre-left people understand the importance of a united front, and this will become apparent as Labour wins in 2015 only one cycle after losing government, and the Tory party tears itself apart.
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    (Original post by Fullofsurprises)
    Good question. Perhaps the answer will come out in about 100 years.
    MI5 doesn't work how you seem to think it works. Unless you're alleging some incredible conspiracy that corrupted half the polling booths and scrutineers in the country. And the existence of a massive, undisclosed section of MI5 that would be needed to direct the efforts of tens of thousands of secret, undercover officers in electoral positions.
 
 
 
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