Betting Discussion (Mark II)
Scroll to see replies
Original post by pereira325
Assuming I forgot any mathematical explanation before, acca's are -EV because each selection is -EV due to the over-round.
Unless you're saying your individual selections are +EV making the entire acca +EV (which one can only prove based on exchange values at the time (IF we assume exchange prices are accurately reflective of current probabilities))?
I don't disagree that place terms can sometimes be exploited for +EV, but then yes, that's because the e/w terms mean your place payout is greater than the regular place payout.../more places.
Unless you're saying your individual selections are +EV making the entire acca +EV (which one can only prove based on exchange values at the time (IF we assume exchange prices are accurately reflective of current probabilities))?
I don't disagree that place terms can sometimes be exploited for +EV, but then yes, that's because the e/w terms mean your place payout is greater than the regular place payout.../more places.
Just to be clear I don’t believe it’s likely many of my selections are a value price . But the thing is I don’t know that for certain. There’s a small chance that bookies have for many years been offering small amounts of value on teams at the top of the market in most sports during the season so that someone doing several selections in an accumulator is doing a value bet .
But I personally don’t believe that even 10% of my selections are value . It may however be that many selections are close to being the correct price .
But I’m happy to go along with the idea that in all probability nearly all my bets are not value bets .
Im reluctant to use the term EV in reply to you because I may not know exactly what that means in relation to these bets whereas I totally understand what a value bet is .
If EV and value mean the same thing then fine . If not I will stick with value .
Now I will try to deal with Forum Users post 😀
Original post by Forum User
Don't waste your time - I explained this to him in nauseating detail a few dozen pages back but realised that I was wasting my time.
As I understood his inane ramblings, he didn't dispute that the accas were -EV but he thought it was possible to 'hedge' a -EV acca by making further -EV bets as the season progresses and some of the originally -EV accas start to show an expected profit. Obviously to anyone with GCSE maths that makes no sense because the EV of a series of bets is simply the sum of the EVs of each individual bet, and if all the individual bets are -EV then the series of bets is also -EV.
Unfortunately you will never get him to understand this as (a) he is totally incapable of comprehending basic mathematical ideas; (b) he is almost certainly a fantasist / degenerate gambler whose posted 'results' bear no resemblance to reality.
As I understood his inane ramblings, he didn't dispute that the accas were -EV but he thought it was possible to 'hedge' a -EV acca by making further -EV bets as the season progresses and some of the originally -EV accas start to show an expected profit. Obviously to anyone with GCSE maths that makes no sense because the EV of a series of bets is simply the sum of the EVs of each individual bet, and if all the individual bets are -EV then the series of bets is also -EV.
Unfortunately you will never get him to understand this as (a) he is totally incapable of comprehending basic mathematical ideas; (b) he is almost certainly a fantasist / degenerate gambler whose posted 'results' bear no resemblance to reality.
Ok so let me try to deal with this post.
The part I didn’t quite understand is where Forum User says , “....and some of the originally -EV accas start to show an expected profit.”
To be clear those are words I doubt that I’ve ever written . But I stand to be corrected .
As for me being incapable of comprehending basic mathematical ideas let me point out that I went to Grammar school and did ten O levels .
But I bunked off much of the time as I hated school .
However I passed all ten O levels and the only subject that I got an A in was maths . 1 A 5 Bs and 4 Cs
I then went on to do Pure Maths with Stats A level but I left school at 17 and never took my A levels .
I still have the certificate showing my ten O levels somewhere .
It seems as if Forum User is implying that my results are lies ? Is that true ?
He would be far wiser I suggest to insist that they must be pure chance because it’s precisely because of people like him that I’m sending all my evidence -for lies my bets certainly are not- to maths departments all over the world .
And I expect to get a number of mathematicians to realise why this works and to take the bookies for a very decent sum of money .
I have absolutely no doubt whatsoever that not only are multiples on outright markets profitable but they are by far the easiest way to beat the bookies.
Finally, as for my posts being inane I trust this post at least is 100% clear ?
(edited 4 years ago)
Further to the above post , let me point out that originally I too never thought this would be possible. I didn’t just wake up one day and start betting wild accumulators on football. I most certainly am not and (apart from one year in 2010 possibly) have never been a degenerate gambler . Am not even a gambler at heart . Music was my passion .
One of the reasons for my so called inane ramblings is so that anyone with half a brain can tell that I’m likely to be telling the truth. If I was lying there is so much written here that I could easily be tripped up by.
So with that in mind let me repeat how I discovered this. I will try to keep the words to a minimum though .
Its Feb 1997 .
I’m broke and unemployed. Was a tube driver til December 92. Left to be DJ . Record collection stolen .🙁
Locked myself out .
Took refuge in bookies . Wasn’t a gambler .
It was the year Barnsley were promoted to the Prem .
Bookie had a machine in the corner where I could look up prices .
Chose outright markets as Barnsley were second in the championship and I was curious to see their odds .
They were 10-1 to win the league but I was v surprised to see you could bet them each way and they were available at 1/5 1,2,3 .
Yet I believed they were odds on to be top 3.
At the same time by coincidence Bury were 10-1 to win what is now league 1 . Thought that was a bit big .
Barnsley were second and Bury won .
Just one of those things I assumed but the next season every Monday I checked the odds in the racing post .
Saw that bookies routinely offered value in the place part of outright markets.
Simple example .
At the start of 1999-2000 season on Coral preseason coupon Man Utd were evens to win the Prem 1/4 1,2,3
In the previous 10 seasons they had been top 3 every time .
In fact they had been top 2 in all but one of those 10 seasons.
Thus easy to conclude they probably had 95% chance of being top 3 again. Yet being offered at 1/4 .
During the season the bookies were offering each way terms even in March whereas now the same markets would be win only by December .
Anyway for several years I did huge numbers of each way accumulators for tiny stakes .
Once ,2002, missed out on £90,000 from a bet with six sports because I hadn’t realised the Rugby league regular season was now 28 games and not 22.
After 22 games Bradford were top. But they lost the extra game v St Helens who won on points difference (I believe) .
In 2004 I won £50,000 in a competition and was then able to make a living from betting using that money .
By 2010 the bookies had wised up to the value in the places and although there are still numerous situations where you can find place value I havnt bet each way since.
But by 2009 I’d started wondering if somehow -somehow-it might be possible to still make a profit from the win part of my bets even though I did not think they could possibly be value .
Why did I ever think they could be profitable then ?
Because every December I’d take all my betting slips and add up the amount I’d bet and the last couple of years I’d think that it’s funny but even though I really don’t think the win odds can possibly be value , if all the bets I’d done up til December had been win only so that I had extra money in my bank , I actually wouldn’t be too unhappy with my overall position.
I just didn’t understand why other than it being just chance .
But I knew thst I was going to have to find out......
One of the reasons for my so called inane ramblings is so that anyone with half a brain can tell that I’m likely to be telling the truth. If I was lying there is so much written here that I could easily be tripped up by.
So with that in mind let me repeat how I discovered this. I will try to keep the words to a minimum though .
Its Feb 1997 .
I’m broke and unemployed. Was a tube driver til December 92. Left to be DJ . Record collection stolen .🙁
Locked myself out .
Took refuge in bookies . Wasn’t a gambler .
It was the year Barnsley were promoted to the Prem .
Bookie had a machine in the corner where I could look up prices .
Chose outright markets as Barnsley were second in the championship and I was curious to see their odds .
They were 10-1 to win the league but I was v surprised to see you could bet them each way and they were available at 1/5 1,2,3 .
Yet I believed they were odds on to be top 3.
At the same time by coincidence Bury were 10-1 to win what is now league 1 . Thought that was a bit big .
Barnsley were second and Bury won .
Just one of those things I assumed but the next season every Monday I checked the odds in the racing post .
Saw that bookies routinely offered value in the place part of outright markets.
Simple example .
At the start of 1999-2000 season on Coral preseason coupon Man Utd were evens to win the Prem 1/4 1,2,3
In the previous 10 seasons they had been top 3 every time .
In fact they had been top 2 in all but one of those 10 seasons.
Thus easy to conclude they probably had 95% chance of being top 3 again. Yet being offered at 1/4 .
During the season the bookies were offering each way terms even in March whereas now the same markets would be win only by December .
Anyway for several years I did huge numbers of each way accumulators for tiny stakes .
Once ,2002, missed out on £90,000 from a bet with six sports because I hadn’t realised the Rugby league regular season was now 28 games and not 22.
After 22 games Bradford were top. But they lost the extra game v St Helens who won on points difference (I believe) .
In 2004 I won £50,000 in a competition and was then able to make a living from betting using that money .
By 2010 the bookies had wised up to the value in the places and although there are still numerous situations where you can find place value I havnt bet each way since.
But by 2009 I’d started wondering if somehow -somehow-it might be possible to still make a profit from the win part of my bets even though I did not think they could possibly be value .
Why did I ever think they could be profitable then ?
Because every December I’d take all my betting slips and add up the amount I’d bet and the last couple of years I’d think that it’s funny but even though I really don’t think the win odds can possibly be value , if all the bets I’d done up til December had been win only so that I had extra money in my bank , I actually wouldn’t be too unhappy with my overall position.
I just didn’t understand why other than it being just chance .
But I knew thst I was going to have to find out......
Original post by moggis
It seems as if Forum User is implying that my results are lies ? Is that true ?
He would be far wiser I suggest to insist that they must be pure chance because it’s precisely because of people like him that I’m sending all my evidence -for lies my bets certainly are not- to maths departments all over the world .
And I expect to get a number of mathematicians to realise why this works and to take the bookies for a very decent sum of money .
I have absolutely no doubt whatsoever that not only are multiples on outright markets profitable but they are by far the easiest way to beat the bookies.
Finally, as for my posts being inane I trust this post at least is 100% clear ?
It seems as if Forum User is implying that my results are lies ? Is that true ?
He would be far wiser I suggest to insist that they must be pure chance because it’s precisely because of people like him that I’m sending all my evidence -for lies my bets certainly are not- to maths departments all over the world .
And I expect to get a number of mathematicians to realise why this works and to take the bookies for a very decent sum of money .
I have absolutely no doubt whatsoever that not only are multiples on outright markets profitable but they are by far the easiest way to beat the bookies.
Finally, as for my posts being inane I trust this post at least is 100% clear ?
Yes it's true. I think you are a liar, rather than someone who is making the sums he claims to be making by pure chance.
You don't need a maths degree to understand that what you are saying is completely impossible. Either the accas you are placing are +EV, or your overall strategy is -EV. You cannot create a +EV strategy by making a series of bets all of which are -EV, because the EV of a sum of a series of bets is simply the sum of the EVs of the individual bets. That is, if bet A has an EV of -£10, and bet B has an EV of -£10, the EV of making both bets A and B is is exactly -£20.
For what it's worth, I have a maths degree from Cambridge (but you only need GCSE maths to understand the above).
The easiest way to beat the bookies is to take every bet they offer where the price is bigger than the lay price on Betfair. The problem is that every bookie will limit you pretty quickly doing this. It's a good way to make a few £10ks, though.
The only thing you have said which makes any sense is in your latest post, where you observe (completely correctly), that the place part of an E/W bet is often incredibly +EV even if the win part is not. There are lots of very good E/W bets every week on horse-racing (especially in 8 runner races and 16-17 runner handicaps, or in races with 'promotional' extra places at the bigger meetings), but again the problem is that you will get limited quickly.
(edited 4 years ago)
Ok good.
Now that I know that you think I’m a liar I understand exactly where you are coming from and you will therefore be easier to deal with .
But let me begin by pointing out the reason I came onto this forum in the first place .I think the thread has been deleted for some reason but the only reason I came on to TSR was to ask a question of people I assumed would be intelligent .The question was, how much money does someone need to make from betting multiples on outright markets over what period of time before you would start thinking betting multiples on outright markets could in fact be profitable ? (I now realise that TSR was not the place to ask 😀)
And it seems that the problem with dealing with people like you is that even if I or someone else does in fact win a large amount you flat out deny that they’ve done so. I believe that if we ever got past that you would then go on to say that it can only be luck.
And the thing is this; since people do not believe me then, as I’ve said, the next best way to finally get this message out there is to send the evidence to maths departments all over the world.
And because of the corona virus and the way I personally am being affected because of a chronic condition that alas probably won’t now be treated that process will now necessarily happen sooner rather than later .Of course I daresay many maths departments will dismiss this out of hand .
But I only need a few to take it seriously. And the fact is I am £2,500,000 up so I think a few will .If not the whole story will have to go to the press.You say I’m lying. It’s a fact that I’m not .I just need to do my best to live long enough to prove it .
Now that I know that you think I’m a liar I understand exactly where you are coming from and you will therefore be easier to deal with .
But let me begin by pointing out the reason I came onto this forum in the first place .I think the thread has been deleted for some reason but the only reason I came on to TSR was to ask a question of people I assumed would be intelligent .The question was, how much money does someone need to make from betting multiples on outright markets over what period of time before you would start thinking betting multiples on outright markets could in fact be profitable ? (I now realise that TSR was not the place to ask 😀)
And it seems that the problem with dealing with people like you is that even if I or someone else does in fact win a large amount you flat out deny that they’ve done so. I believe that if we ever got past that you would then go on to say that it can only be luck.
And the thing is this; since people do not believe me then, as I’ve said, the next best way to finally get this message out there is to send the evidence to maths departments all over the world.
And because of the corona virus and the way I personally am being affected because of a chronic condition that alas probably won’t now be treated that process will now necessarily happen sooner rather than later .Of course I daresay many maths departments will dismiss this out of hand .
But I only need a few to take it seriously. And the fact is I am £2,500,000 up so I think a few will .If not the whole story will have to go to the press.You say I’m lying. It’s a fact that I’m not .I just need to do my best to live long enough to prove it .
(edited 4 years ago)
https://imgur.com/a/ZbuzW9S
Ok so what you hopefully see here is a bet I placed with one of the two bookies I mentioned back in July . The bet is a loser because Saracens were found to be cheating and have been relegated .
And I’m showing it to explain a couple of things . This bookie doesn’t have even 1/6 of the markets bet365 has so I was very restricted on the choice of markets . It also has lower limits on some of their markets which limit my selections yet further .
So they’re not too easy to beat .
But a few of the selections are selections I do year after year after year . Juve and Bayern for example .
Now Forum User would presumably have the position that I definitely should not be betting Juve or Bayern at all unless I have reason to believe their prices are value . And I have no real way of knowing whether they are or not .
But I simply don’t care whether Bayern’s price is value.
In fact when I bet Bayern year after year after year at the start of the season I don’t even want them to win !
I believe I can make a bigger profit if they fail .
But explaining things like that to Cambridge mathematicians is a waste of time . Probably even counter productive as they may now say I should leave Bayern out altogether in that case.
Meanwhile they just repeat that adding - ev bets together cannot make you a profit .
And I just carry on betting Juve and Bayern year after year after year . And I don’t even think I need any qualifications at all to see why doing so is a good idea .
I just need to know something about top class football . Not much though you understand. Surprisingly little in fact.
The other thing about this bet is that how you go about hedging it and indeed whether to hedge it at all is really what this is mainly about .
Actually getting into strong positions really isn’t very hard at all . How you exploit those positions is trickier .
I’ve been privileged to see other people’s attempts at doing what I do and with minimal guidance from me most people can soon learn to get into reasonable positions.
But then they are rather stuck .
One more thing , it took me less than a minute to come up with this bet back in July .
There was virtually no thinking at all. And it’s by no means a particularly good bet . But it’s the kind of bet that helps me make a profit . I’ve done lots more bets that will be clear losers as well though that didn’t have Saracens .
Now Forum User thinks, I believe, that I can’t be making any money at all except by luck by doing such bets .
I think if he were to bet them himself he would soon see that he’s wrong .
But he won’t .
And that fascinates me .
Ok so what you hopefully see here is a bet I placed with one of the two bookies I mentioned back in July . The bet is a loser because Saracens were found to be cheating and have been relegated .
And I’m showing it to explain a couple of things . This bookie doesn’t have even 1/6 of the markets bet365 has so I was very restricted on the choice of markets . It also has lower limits on some of their markets which limit my selections yet further .
So they’re not too easy to beat .
But a few of the selections are selections I do year after year after year . Juve and Bayern for example .
Now Forum User would presumably have the position that I definitely should not be betting Juve or Bayern at all unless I have reason to believe their prices are value . And I have no real way of knowing whether they are or not .
But I simply don’t care whether Bayern’s price is value.
In fact when I bet Bayern year after year after year at the start of the season I don’t even want them to win !
I believe I can make a bigger profit if they fail .
But explaining things like that to Cambridge mathematicians is a waste of time . Probably even counter productive as they may now say I should leave Bayern out altogether in that case.
Meanwhile they just repeat that adding - ev bets together cannot make you a profit .
And I just carry on betting Juve and Bayern year after year after year . And I don’t even think I need any qualifications at all to see why doing so is a good idea .
I just need to know something about top class football . Not much though you understand. Surprisingly little in fact.
The other thing about this bet is that how you go about hedging it and indeed whether to hedge it at all is really what this is mainly about .
Actually getting into strong positions really isn’t very hard at all . How you exploit those positions is trickier .
I’ve been privileged to see other people’s attempts at doing what I do and with minimal guidance from me most people can soon learn to get into reasonable positions.
But then they are rather stuck .
One more thing , it took me less than a minute to come up with this bet back in July .
There was virtually no thinking at all. And it’s by no means a particularly good bet . But it’s the kind of bet that helps me make a profit . I’ve done lots more bets that will be clear losers as well though that didn’t have Saracens .
Now Forum User thinks, I believe, that I can’t be making any money at all except by luck by doing such bets .
I think if he were to bet them himself he would soon see that he’s wrong .
But he won’t .
And that fascinates me .
(edited 4 years ago)
Back in November 2018 bet365 finally started restricting my bets .
As a result of that I looked more at other bookies and discovered that betfair sports had greatly improved the number of markets they had since the last time I’d looked .
In fact when I started betting multiples on there I couldn’t believe how wonderful their site was and how easy it would be to take them for at least £250,000 the following season once I’d learned how they applied their restrictions and how the algorithm worked etc.
So easy was it for me that when I stood to win £100,000 if Chelsea were to beat Arsenal in the Europa League Cup final in 2019 I was ambivalent over whether I wanted Chelsea to win !
Because I knew if they did I could be banned or restricted. I hoped I wouldn’t be but it was a risk and I knew that with a whole season to bet on there I could win a larger amount .
I havnt located the Chelsea bet right now but here’s another winning bet .
It’s £50,000 because some of the markets have £50,000 limits .
I was in fact banned and moreover Im not 100% sure yet but it looks to me as if betfair sports are now rather more careful with the number of markets they have .
Because I came within a couple of points of taking a total of £400,000 off them just betting from November 2018 to May 2019.
https://i.imgur.com/r7iiqRM.png
As a result of that I looked more at other bookies and discovered that betfair sports had greatly improved the number of markets they had since the last time I’d looked .
In fact when I started betting multiples on there I couldn’t believe how wonderful their site was and how easy it would be to take them for at least £250,000 the following season once I’d learned how they applied their restrictions and how the algorithm worked etc.
So easy was it for me that when I stood to win £100,000 if Chelsea were to beat Arsenal in the Europa League Cup final in 2019 I was ambivalent over whether I wanted Chelsea to win !
Because I knew if they did I could be banned or restricted. I hoped I wouldn’t be but it was a risk and I knew that with a whole season to bet on there I could win a larger amount .
I havnt located the Chelsea bet right now but here’s another winning bet .
It’s £50,000 because some of the markets have £50,000 limits .
I was in fact banned and moreover Im not 100% sure yet but it looks to me as if betfair sports are now rather more careful with the number of markets they have .
Because I came within a couple of points of taking a total of £400,000 off them just betting from November 2018 to May 2019.
https://i.imgur.com/r7iiqRM.png
Ok here’s the Chelsea bet mentioned above
https://imgur.com/a/kfZYepp
https://imgur.com/a/kfZYepp
So really, after reading loads of posts...
Can I tl;dr:
That your opinion and advice moggis really is just:
-place random acca's on outright markets, and hedge across time.
The advice would also be:
-use outrights with advantageous place terms but now that's mostly difficult to exploit by bookies
And finally:
-You can't prove in theory why this is profitable or why it should be
-But your profits realised (by yourself and others who you've taught this "strategy") make you feel this is a genuinely profitable strategy and not just luck
It is interesting
Can I tl;dr:
That your opinion and advice moggis really is just:
-place random acca's on outright markets, and hedge across time.
The advice would also be:
-use outrights with advantageous place terms but now that's mostly difficult to exploit by bookies
And finally:
-You can't prove in theory why this is profitable or why it should be
-But your profits realised (by yourself and others who you've taught this "strategy") make you feel this is a genuinely profitable strategy and not just luck
It is interesting
Original post by pereira325
So really, after reading loads of posts...
Can I tl;dr:
That your opinion and advice moggis really is just:
-place random acca's on outright markets, and hedge across time.
The advice would also be:
-use outrights with advantageous place terms but now that's mostly difficult to exploit by bookies
And finally:
-You can't prove in theory why this is profitable or why it should be
-But your profits realised (by yourself and others who you've taught this "strategy") make you feel this is a genuinely profitable strategy and not just luck
It is interesting
Can I tl;dr:
That your opinion and advice moggis really is just:
-place random acca's on outright markets, and hedge across time.
The advice would also be:
-use outrights with advantageous place terms but now that's mostly difficult to exploit by bookies
And finally:
-You can't prove in theory why this is profitable or why it should be
-But your profits realised (by yourself and others who you've taught this "strategy") make you feel this is a genuinely profitable strategy and not just luck
It is interesting
Hi,
Well no. Not random accas pereira.
Now that really would be pie in the sky .😀
Let me narrow it down .
I’m saying at the very least ;
That if a person had a proper betting bank of say £2000 and from mid December onwards they started placing accumulators on outright markets where the favourite is odds on or at most evens and where the second favourite is at least 2-1...
And they kept on doing that using as many markets and sports as they can but being wary of leagues that have play offs and being very cautious about the staking, never betting more than 1% on any bet , then almost every year by mid April they would find themselves in an overall position that can be hedged in such a way that either the accumulators will make a profit or the hedge bets or more often a combination of both .
Some of the original bets can and should be cashed out too especially where one of the selections is doing and very badly and the bets are with bet365 as only they offer decent cash outs.
Now that is a beginners strategy of course .
It still works from before the start of the season however I don’t think I could recommend starting preseason except for one very good reason.
To learn .
The more bets you do at tiny stakes the more you will learn and appreciate how the markets work and how things can go wrong .
But if you start from half way through the season you should hopefully be protected from the one thing that has caused me the biggest problem throughout the years .
Betting too much too soon .
Never ever bet too much too early in the season . It’s a huge mistake .
Always have 70% of your bank available on January 1st and 30% available on April 30th .
(edited 3 years ago)
Actually, let’s look at this from the opposite direction.
Almost every sports betting book , 1000s and 1000s of sites and just about every expert advises people who wish to try to profit from sports betting to ;
Find markets with low overrounds
Only bet when they believe a price is wrong in their favour
Bet singles unless they have a very good reason not to.
And I think it’s fair to say that almost all gamblers are aware of the need to find value prices and bet singles .
It’s no secret . And most gamblers who bet singles believe they are betting on value .
And there are millions of gamblers . And football I believe may now be the main thing we bet on .
Yet in all my life I’ve personally never known of anyone -no friend , no neighbour, no work colleague, no family member- who has ever even claimed to have had any success from betting on football in this manner.
Nor have I ever come across a character in a book or a soap or a movie who was regularly winning by betting on soccer. So even writers seem to find the idea fanciful.
As for forums, sure I have seen threads where selections seem to have been profitable over a year or two .
And I don’t doubt that there must be a few people on the internet who are in fact long term profitable soccer bettors .
But I never get the impression that anyone on any forum has ever made more than say £10,000 a year betting on soccer and those that claim they are winning tend to point out it took years to come up with a ratings system or model and/or that they are mathematically or statistically minded.
On top of that I believe it may have been on this very forum that a mathematician who was studying for a PhD told me they tried for years to make a profit from betting and failed . And they are just an example of others who have told me similar things.
So why do millions of people bet singles on matches ? They are nearly all losing . So why do it ? And just how good a method can it be if hardly anyone seems to win in the long term?
If it’s for the entertainment they’d surely be better off betting accumulators on outright markets.Wouldn't they?
Almost every sports betting book , 1000s and 1000s of sites and just about every expert advises people who wish to try to profit from sports betting to ;
Find markets with low overrounds
Only bet when they believe a price is wrong in their favour
Bet singles unless they have a very good reason not to.
And I think it’s fair to say that almost all gamblers are aware of the need to find value prices and bet singles .
It’s no secret . And most gamblers who bet singles believe they are betting on value .
And there are millions of gamblers . And football I believe may now be the main thing we bet on .
Yet in all my life I’ve personally never known of anyone -no friend , no neighbour, no work colleague, no family member- who has ever even claimed to have had any success from betting on football in this manner.
Nor have I ever come across a character in a book or a soap or a movie who was regularly winning by betting on soccer. So even writers seem to find the idea fanciful.
As for forums, sure I have seen threads where selections seem to have been profitable over a year or two .
And I don’t doubt that there must be a few people on the internet who are in fact long term profitable soccer bettors .
But I never get the impression that anyone on any forum has ever made more than say £10,000 a year betting on soccer and those that claim they are winning tend to point out it took years to come up with a ratings system or model and/or that they are mathematically or statistically minded.
On top of that I believe it may have been on this very forum that a mathematician who was studying for a PhD told me they tried for years to make a profit from betting and failed . And they are just an example of others who have told me similar things.
So why do millions of people bet singles on matches ? They are nearly all losing . So why do it ? And just how good a method can it be if hardly anyone seems to win in the long term?
If it’s for the entertainment they’d surely be better off betting accumulators on outright markets.Wouldn't they?
(edited 3 years ago)
Hi All,
I am a professional gambler and am looking to employ a betting assistant. If you are interested please DM me.
Note, this will be a part time role with only a few hours needed to work a week.
Hope to hear from some of you.
I am a professional gambler and am looking to employ a betting assistant. If you are interested please DM me.
Note, this will be a part time role with only a few hours needed to work a week.
Hope to hear from some of you.
Well well.
So I’ve been doing some basic research and reviewing the last ten years of the markets in England Scotland Europe Australia and Brazil.
And what I’ve found has surprised even me.
I decided to compare league tables from the half way point in the season to the end of the season.
And, among other things, where the leaders at half way did not go on to win I looked to see how close to the end of the season they got to before being replaced at the top by the winners . And indeed the position of the winners at half way if they weren’t top.
And I now have very little doubt that all I’d need do to convince many people that multiples on outright markets is a profitable strategy would be to show them the results of this basic research.
Which is why I’m probably not going to. It’s just too convincing. And revealing. 😳
It would seem that I’ve pretty much been doing my very best to make this harder than it really is 😀
I do understand why that is . My bets have been very far from the optimum required to merely make a reasonable profit every year. For example every year I’d bet on top 4 markets in say Germany instead of betting Bayern at 1-10.
But top 4 markets are far trickier . The difference between the team that comes 4th and the team that comes 6th can often be negligible and just down to luck in crucial games for example .
One of the really fascinating things about this is that the markets are easy to beat but your own motives and character are another thing entirely.
So I’ve been doing some basic research and reviewing the last ten years of the markets in England Scotland Europe Australia and Brazil.
And what I’ve found has surprised even me.
I decided to compare league tables from the half way point in the season to the end of the season.
And, among other things, where the leaders at half way did not go on to win I looked to see how close to the end of the season they got to before being replaced at the top by the winners . And indeed the position of the winners at half way if they weren’t top.
And I now have very little doubt that all I’d need do to convince many people that multiples on outright markets is a profitable strategy would be to show them the results of this basic research.
Which is why I’m probably not going to. It’s just too convincing. And revealing. 😳
It would seem that I’ve pretty much been doing my very best to make this harder than it really is 😀
I do understand why that is . My bets have been very far from the optimum required to merely make a reasonable profit every year. For example every year I’d bet on top 4 markets in say Germany instead of betting Bayern at 1-10.
But top 4 markets are far trickier . The difference between the team that comes 4th and the team that comes 6th can often be negligible and just down to luck in crucial games for example .
One of the really fascinating things about this is that the markets are easy to beat but your own motives and character are another thing entirely.
(edited 3 years ago)
Ok so to my great surprise a friend of mine told me the other week that you can still log on to bet365 even if you are banned!
I had no idea.
But I didn’t at that time see any reason to log on because most markets were still unsettled.
But the other day I did and this was my profit/ loss for a year not including a lot of unsettled bets.
Now these bets must have been all for tiny tiny unit stakes because I was restricted by bet365 in November 2018.
And so I was doing perms . Any 13 from 14 any 12 from 14 any 10 from 12
And the thing is because my unit stake was so small most of my perms had to have 14 selections in them .
14 because that’s the maximum the system allows.
And the thing is 14 selections is not at all ideal. It’s too many even for me. Sometimes I put 14 selections in accas but when I do they will contain many odds on selections.
But I was unable to bet too many odds on shots in these bets because they wouldn’t have won me much money .
It was a lot of hassle placing these bets and I wanted to at least place bets that could win a lot and provide a lot of entertainment.
And on top of all that I was banned in October 2019 .
So I had a lot of problems. And betting very early on isn’t good anyway .(edit although these might well be summer bets in fact )
And yet..well you can see for yourself in the next post.
I had no idea.
But I didn’t at that time see any reason to log on because most markets were still unsettled.
But the other day I did and this was my profit/ loss for a year not including a lot of unsettled bets.
Now these bets must have been all for tiny tiny unit stakes because I was restricted by bet365 in November 2018.
And so I was doing perms . Any 13 from 14 any 12 from 14 any 10 from 12
And the thing is because my unit stake was so small most of my perms had to have 14 selections in them .
14 because that’s the maximum the system allows.
And the thing is 14 selections is not at all ideal. It’s too many even for me. Sometimes I put 14 selections in accas but when I do they will contain many odds on selections.
But I was unable to bet too many odds on shots in these bets because they wouldn’t have won me much money .
It was a lot of hassle placing these bets and I wanted to at least place bets that could win a lot and provide a lot of entertainment.
And on top of all that I was banned in October 2019 .
So I had a lot of problems. And betting very early on isn’t good anyway .(edit although these might well be summer bets in fact )
And yet..well you can see for yourself in the next post.
(edited 3 years ago)
https://imgur.com/a/TR500Gc
The funny thing is I don’t really have much idea what these bets are.
Unless they are bets that were settled at the end of December and were on summer sports.
Because I just can’t think of many winter bets I’d have placed that for example wouldn’t have had a Premiership selection in them and of course those markets aren’t settled yet.
I like to be honest and so I admit I don’t expect to make a profit from the £51,000 unsettled bets.
In fact I’d be happy to get £40,000 back . But it’s possible I will land £30,000 from one bet even with void markets .
The main reasons I’m not optimistic are
I had Stuttgart and Hamburg in many bets and had little opportunity to bet Bielefeld before I was banned .
The National League bets were appalling and that market still hasn’t been voided .
I really need those bets voiding just to get £40,000 back I think.
But the biggest loser for me was Europa League group betting .
I included the Europa league groups in a lot of bets because I needed 14 selections at odds around evens or more and with big limits .
But I was banned half way through the groups and to my great frustration I was unable to bet on the eventual group winners eg Celtic.
God, people just don’t understand the incredible frustration I go through* not being to place bets in these circumstances.
It’s really not easy getting others to place them as you can’t use people who live near you or can easily be tied to you and finding other people you trust to hand over £50,000 plus ain’t easy.
And that’s one reason I tell others about this. Its even more frustrating to have to read about how bad accumulators are while not being able to bet them in the way I’d like🙉😕
*I think this may be why not being able to bet at all in recent weeks made me happier if anything .
I was released temporarily from the enormous frustration I have felt since bet365 restricted me.
The funny thing is I don’t really have much idea what these bets are.
Unless they are bets that were settled at the end of December and were on summer sports.
Because I just can’t think of many winter bets I’d have placed that for example wouldn’t have had a Premiership selection in them and of course those markets aren’t settled yet.
I like to be honest and so I admit I don’t expect to make a profit from the £51,000 unsettled bets.
In fact I’d be happy to get £40,000 back . But it’s possible I will land £30,000 from one bet even with void markets .
The main reasons I’m not optimistic are
I had Stuttgart and Hamburg in many bets and had little opportunity to bet Bielefeld before I was banned .
The National League bets were appalling and that market still hasn’t been voided .
I really need those bets voiding just to get £40,000 back I think.
But the biggest loser for me was Europa League group betting .
I included the Europa league groups in a lot of bets because I needed 14 selections at odds around evens or more and with big limits .
But I was banned half way through the groups and to my great frustration I was unable to bet on the eventual group winners eg Celtic.
God, people just don’t understand the incredible frustration I go through* not being to place bets in these circumstances.
It’s really not easy getting others to place them as you can’t use people who live near you or can easily be tied to you and finding other people you trust to hand over £50,000 plus ain’t easy.
And that’s one reason I tell others about this. Its even more frustrating to have to read about how bad accumulators are while not being able to bet them in the way I’d like🙉😕
*I think this may be why not being able to bet at all in recent weeks made me happier if anything .
I was released temporarily from the enormous frustration I have felt since bet365 restricted me.
(edited 3 years ago)
For some reason I’m unable to check up on profit losses from previous years.
But I was able to look at my net deposits from Jan 2017.
I wanted to go back to 2015 because I suffered a big loss in 2015/16 .
(It was the first season I tried to use cash outs as a big part of my strategy and I did a lot of bets early on but then was unable to cash out many bets. I was really stupid to bet so much assuming I’d be able to cash out but I hoped that if the cash outs went wrong at least the season might be ok but in the event it was the trickiest since 2010 when I also lost .)
Anyway I think we can see why bet365 decided they should ban me.
https://imgur.com/a/Sb0vvfe
But I was able to look at my net deposits from Jan 2017.
I wanted to go back to 2015 because I suffered a big loss in 2015/16 .
(It was the first season I tried to use cash outs as a big part of my strategy and I did a lot of bets early on but then was unable to cash out many bets. I was really stupid to bet so much assuming I’d be able to cash out but I hoped that if the cash outs went wrong at least the season might be ok but in the event it was the trickiest since 2010 when I also lost .)
Anyway I think we can see why bet365 decided they should ban me.
https://imgur.com/a/Sb0vvfe
Incidentally let’s be fully aware of the most remarkable thing about all this.
That’s if you believe it isn’t pure luck .
If it isn’t pure luck then there are two main explanations;
Either the bookies routinely offer value prices on teams either at the top of the betting in long term markets and/or teams at the top of the table during large portions of the season.
Moreover they’ve apparently been doing this for many years without anyone noticing not even me. And on just about every sport!
Or ...well the only other explanation is that it’s little or nothing to do with value!
But for that to be true it would mean that almost everything written and believed about sports betting is based on a falsehood.
That you can only profit in the long term by consistently finding value prices .
And if that were to be the case then it would really really annoy a great many people .
It would surely shake things up somewhat wouldn’t it ?
And I think this is important enough and interesting enough to get to the bottom of .
I’ve already said I believe that I don’t think I can possibly be betting 1000s of accumulators that are value .
And therefore I do indeed believe that everything written about sports betting is based on a lie.
However I fully understand if most people reading this think all those experts can’t possibly be wrong .
In which case they should be betting multiples on outright markets.
Because as I say the other explanation is that there are so many value selections at the top of the betting and/or the top of the table that any idiot can win merely by stringing several such selections together time and time again.
That’s if you believe it isn’t pure luck .
If it isn’t pure luck then there are two main explanations;
Either the bookies routinely offer value prices on teams either at the top of the betting in long term markets and/or teams at the top of the table during large portions of the season.
Moreover they’ve apparently been doing this for many years without anyone noticing not even me. And on just about every sport!
Or ...well the only other explanation is that it’s little or nothing to do with value!
But for that to be true it would mean that almost everything written and believed about sports betting is based on a falsehood.
That you can only profit in the long term by consistently finding value prices .
And if that were to be the case then it would really really annoy a great many people .
It would surely shake things up somewhat wouldn’t it ?
And I think this is important enough and interesting enough to get to the bottom of .
I’ve already said I believe that I don’t think I can possibly be betting 1000s of accumulators that are value .
And therefore I do indeed believe that everything written about sports betting is based on a lie.
However I fully understand if most people reading this think all those experts can’t possibly be wrong .
In which case they should be betting multiples on outright markets.
Because as I say the other explanation is that there are so many value selections at the top of the betting and/or the top of the table that any idiot can win merely by stringing several such selections together time and time again.
(edited 3 years ago)
Quick Reply
Related discussions
- A level chemistry help URGENT ‼️
- Help with (AQA) Thermal Physics / Electric Fields A-Level question?
- Failed a resit for an accounting module need to know what to do next
- RE: GCSE English
- 2023 STEP 3 Math
- predict your A Level Grades (year 13)
- Edexcel A Level Mathematics Paper 2 unofficial mark scheme correct me if wrong
- I need an answer for this question iii.
- Oxford or Cambridge med?
- GCSE Physics Question Help
- Help maths
- Physics A G482 EWP Unofficial mark Scheme
- Grade?
- STEP 2016 Solutions
- help with resultant vertical velocity question please
- pulleys-mechanics, pls help i cant solve the whole question
- Edexcel A Level Further Mathematics Paper 4A (9FM0 4A) - 26th June 2023 [Exam Chat]
- Further Maths statistics question
- A-Level English literature essays
- GCSE Chemistry Question Help
