Betting Discussion (Mark II) Watch

jackf1337
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#981
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#981
(Original post by TheInvincibles14)
Would you mind explaining to me how you make money betting on tennis? Is it my lumping on three to four winners? You guys seem to be making a decent amount of profit.
You've gotta do your research on games. I'd say that at least 40% of the time, a favourite priced at 1.2-1.9 doesn't win.

When I say research, factor in these things when looking at any given fixture (no particular order):
1) The surface; are either of the players particularly good on the surface in question? And on the flip side, are either of the players particularly bad on the surface in question?
2) The form; are either of the players on a bad run of form? I went against favourites Seppi and Raonic today. They both won but both were on a poor run of form. I think betting on +3.5 sets would've been more worthwhile, but there was a lot of value in their opponents. Llodra, Raonic's opponent, was backed from 4.33 to 3.5 overnight.
3) Know your players. It would be a nigh on impossible task to know how every player on the ATP, Challenger and ITF tours plays, but if you start watching matches, you'll pick up on a number of players games in due course. What I'm getting at here is the individuals specialities and weaknesses. A basic example is that Novak Djokovic is bloody good server and that Andy Murray's strength is in the returns. This can then link to my first point; however much you'd think Murray would be a better clay player than Djokovic, this simply isn't the case, and one of many reasons why you should study the game.
Aside from form, another reason I backed Llodra to overcome Raonic is that Raonic is a power server (I believe he has the biggest serve on the ATP tour), however, Llodra is pretty damn good at powerful returns. Added to the fact Llodra was at home (a point I'll expand on later), there was a lot of value to be had backing Llodra at 4.33.
4) Home advantage. Are either of the players in the match you're looking at playing at home? What's their record like at home?
I'll draw you to the Monfils game earlier. Monfils was somewhat an outsider in his encounter with Gulbis this afternoon, backed in at 2.1 for the start of play. However, one of the reasons I decided to back Monfils (even when he went a set down) was that he is playing in his homeland, France. Looking at the form guide, Monfils entered the Bordeaux Challenger event earlier this month (which he won), then played at ATP Nice where he lost in the final. By doing this, Monfils got a lot of wins under his belt and was very much well rehearsed on clay. He dumped Berdych out of the French Open in the qualifier, one of the worlds best players and easily a semi final contender. The French crowds are loving Monfils and what he brings to the court. There was not one second where I doubted he'd win that match.
Another example I can think of is Andy Murray in Miami this year. I believe Murray has his own place in Miami, and that a lot of his family, his partner, and even his pets were down with him in Florida! Throughout the tournament he spoke of how happy he was at the time and morale was evidently very high. Murray won the tournament. This is all part of knowing your players.
5) Further to the form guide, look at their previous match/matches. Did they play yesterday? Did they go to 5 sets and play 25 games in the 5th set? Has the player just jetted halfway across the world to get to the tournament, having finished another only a day or two before? These things are important to consider.
An extreme example of this would be Wimbledon 2010, where the longest game of tennis ever occurred. Mahut and Isner. The final set ended 68-70 to Isner I think and needless to say, he was completely drained. When he took to the court for next game the following day, he lost in straight sets in only 72 minutes. Like I said, an extreme example, but you should bare in mind the condition that the player is likely to be in. This is sometimes difficult to tell, but you can normally hazard a guess.
6) Their world ranking. Fairly self explanatory, but looking into a players world ranking, and recent shifts are very much worth your time. If you can spot a player climbing the top 100, and lets say they're playing against one drifting, then you'd be very much in the right frame of mind to back the climber. For world rankings, consult the relevant tour websites.

This is all I can really think of at the moment. I appreciate this is probably a lot of information to digest and if you have any questions or anything to add, please feel obliged. I've barely even scratched the surface of placing tennis bets in play, but I can talk about that another time.
I may think of more things but these are the main things I consider every time I place a bet.
I can imagine you're thinking 'where on earth does one get this information from?'. Well fear not, flashscore.com is your friend, also tennisexplorer.com is a handy tool, but I've not really checked that out much, I only discovered it today. The ATP and WTA, as well as any relevant, official Challenger and ITF websites are also very useful with regards to information such as rankings and they also have player bios etc.
It's not all about information, though. You need to watch and study the game. I've been really getting into tennis over the past 12 months and I make sure I watch a lot of it. Today I watched the French Open from 10 until the last match finished. Easily 8 hours or so of matches. If you're in the UK, ITV channels and Eurosport are showing games.

Good luck.
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pane123
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#982
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#982
(Original post by oldham_fran)
Ahahahahaaaaa (slightly off topic) maybe this is why I got told off by my boyfriends mum for watching too much football :P
If my Mum had to tell my girlfriend off for watching too much football, I would tell my Mum to shut it, then propose to my girlfriend.

EDIT: This is purely hypothetical, as I do not have a girlfriend. Turns out girls aren't too keen on guys who can't walk down the street without trying to peer through every bookmaker's window to see the race I have inevitably bet on.
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jackf1337
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#983
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#983
(Original post by DH1')
Her opponent's finally got a game on the board. Doesn't matter though as i'm only betting on Serena's service game.

And just like that Serena cruises through all 12 service games. Nice £30 profit for an hour's work.
What sort of odds were you getting when betting on Serena winning a service game? I think I'm going to hammer some of those tomorrow.
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SloaneRanger
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#984
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#984
(Original post by pane123)
If my Mum had to tell my girlfriend off for watching too much football, I would tell my Mum to shut it, then propose to my girlfriend.

EDIT: This is purely hypothetical, as I do not have a girlfriend. Turns out girls aren't too keen on guys who can't walk down the street without trying to peer through every bookmaker's window to see the race I have inevitably bet on.
Haha, so true.
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SloaneRanger
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#985
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#985
(Original post by jackf1337)
What sort of odds were you getting when betting on Serena winning a service game? I think I'm going to hammer some of those tomorrow.
It depends on who she is playing, remember variables include her opponent, also court factors and serving first etc.
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jackf1337
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#986
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#986
(Original post by SloaneRanger)
It depends on who she is playing, remember variables include her opponent, also court factors and serving first etc.
For sure! Say if Serena Williams (against Garcia, for instance) won the first set 6-0, breaking to 30 each time, would the odds of Serena breaking drop after every break she makes? Then would the odds rise a bit at the start of a new set?
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SloaneRanger
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#987
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#987
(Original post by jackf1337)
For sure! Say if Serena Williams (against Garcia, for instance) won the first set 6-0, breaking to 30 each time, would the odds of Serena breaking drop after every break she makes?
Have you seen betting -2.5 points in a game etc might be value in certain games.
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TheInvincibles14
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#988
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#988
(Original post by jackf1337)
You've gotta do your research on games. I'd say that at least 40% of the time, a favourite priced at 1.2-1.9 doesn't win.

When I say research, factor in these things when looking at any given fixture (no particular order):
1) The surface; are either of the players particularly good on the surface in question? And on the flip side, are either of the players particularly bad on the surface in question?
2) The form; are either of the players on a bad run of form? I went against favourites Seppi and Raonic today. They both won but both were on a poor run of form. I think betting on +3.5 sets would've been more worthwhile, but there was a lot of value in their opponents. Llodra, Raonic's opponent, was backed from 4.33 to 3.5 overnight.
3) Know your players. It would be a nigh on impossible task to know how every player on the ATP, Challenger and ITF tours player, but if you start watching matches, you'll pick up on a number of players games in due course. What I'm getting at here is the individuals specialities and weaknesses. A basic example is that Novak Djokovic is bloody good server and that Andy Murray's strength is in the returns. This can then link to my first point; however much you'd think Murray would be a better clay player than Djokovic, this simply isn't the case, and one of many reasons why you should study the game.
Aside from form, another reason I backed Llodra to overcome Raonic is that Raonic is a power server (I believe he has the biggest serve on the ATP tour), however, Llodra is pretty damn good at powerful returns. Added to the fact Llodra was at home (a point I'll expand on later), there was a lot of value to be had backing Llodra at 4.33.
4) Home advantage. Are either of the players in the match you're looking at playing at home? What's their record like at home?
I'll draw you to the Monfils game earlier. Monfils was somewhat an outsider in his encounter with Gulbis this afternoon, backed in at 2.1 for the start of play. However, one of the reasons I decided to back Monfils (even when he went a set down) was that he is playing in his homeland, France. Looking at the form guide, Monfils entered the Bordeaux Challenger event earlier this month (which he won), then played at ATP Nice where he lost in the final. By doing this, Monfils got a lot of wins under his belt and was very much well rehearsed on clay. He dumped Berdych out of the French Open in the qualifier, one of the worlds best players and easily a semi final contender. The French crowds are loving Monfils and what he brings to the court. There was not one second where I doubted he'd win that match.
Another example I can think of is Andy Murray in Miami this year. I believe Murray has his own place in Miami, and that a lot of his family, his partner, and even his pets were down with him in Florida! Throughout the tournament he spoke of how happy he was at the time and morale was evidently very high. Murray won the tournament. This is all part of knowing your players.
5) Further to the form guide, look at their previous match/matches. Did they play yesterday? Did they go to 5 sets and play 25 games in the 5th set? Has the player just jetted halfway across the world to get to the tournament, having finished another only a day or two before? These things are important to consider.
An extreme example of this would be Wimbledon 2010, where the longest game of tennis ever occurred. Mahut and Isner. The final set ended 68-70 to Isner I think and needless to say, he was completely drained. When he took to the court for next game the following day, he lost in straight sets in only 72 minutes. Like I said, an extreme example, but you should bare in mind the condition that the player is likely to be in. This is sometimes difficult to tell, but you can normally hazard a guess.
6) Their world ranking. Fairly self explanatory, but looking into a players world ranking, and recent shifts are very much worth your time. If you can spot a player climbing the top 100, and lets say they're playing against one drifting, then you'd be very much in the right frame of mind to back the climber. For world rankings, consult the relevant tour websites.

This is all I can really think of at the moment. I appreciate this is probably a lot of information to digest and if you have any questions or anything to add, please feel obliged. I've barely even scratched the surface of placing tennis bets in play, but I can talk about that another time.
I may think of more things but these are the main things I consider every time I place a bet.
I can imagine you're thinking 'where on earth does one get this information from?'. Well fear not, flashscore.com is your friend, also tennisexplorer.com is a handy tool, but I've not really checked that out much, I only discovered it today. The ATP and WTA, as well as any relevant, official Challenger and ITF websites are also very useful with regards to information such as rankings and they also have player bios etc.
It's not all about information, though. You need to watch and study the game. I've been really getting into tennis over the past 12 months and I make sure I watch a lot of it. Today I watched the French Open from 10 until the last match finished. Easily 8 hours or so of matches. If you're in the UK, ITV channels and Eurosport are showing games.

Good luck.
Wow fantastic reply, cheers bro. Going to watch it for a week or two before I divuldge into it I guess. Have always been a casual viewer of tennis but never really thought about betting on it
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jackf1337
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#989
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#989
(Original post by DH1')
It started off as low as 1/8 and then increased to 1/12, then 1/20 and the most was 1/33. She has the best serve in the history of the womens game imo. Don't think there was much risk with the actual bet, apart from what Pane said about uncertainty and me potentially getting banned if i kept winning from it.
Wow, so the odds really slipped.

Yeah her serve is amazing. It's not as powerful as it used to be but I think she's sacrificed a little bit of power for spin/accuracy.

(Original post by SloaneRanger)
Have you seen betting -2.5 points in a game etc might be value in certain games.
Hmm I don't think I've noticed that before, potentially a good bet, would that be holding to 15 or 30?
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swypeyafc
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#990
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#990
Has anyone got any good mlb tips for tonight? Only placed a small double on the international friendlies tonight which lost thanks to England

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TheInvincibles14
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#991
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#991
(Original post by swypeyafc)
Has anyone got any good mlb tips for tonight? Only placed a small double on the international friendlies tonight which lost thanks to England

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Pirates
Nationals
Cardinals
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jackf1337
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#992
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#992
(Original post by TheInvincibles14)
Wow fantastic reply, cheers bro. Going to watch it for a week or two before I divuldge into it I guess. Have always been a casual viewer of tennis but never really thought about betting on it
No problem at all, happy to be of assistance.

A lot of what I said is about pre match betting, but that doesn't mean you can't apply it to in play. In play betting can potentially be a big money maker on tennis, but you're then looking into slightly grey areas, such as the players frame of mind, how mentally strong they are etc. When I talk about those attributes, I'm getting at how the player reacts to getting broke, losing a set and so on. Do they crumble, or do they fight on? This is best learnt via watching games. Normally, the better/more experienced the player, the higher their mental strength is. Kvitova is a player renowned for her high mental strength, as well as the majority of the worlds top 10, although perhaps not so much in the womens game.
You can always look at previous games on flashscore.com and see where a player has gone behind and fought back, but it's often difficult to see what happens within a set.
The money is often in big players making comebacks. I remember backing Murray at 16/1 v Granollers at a set and double break down. I think by the time he won the tie break, he was down to about 1.66, where he then retired. Very, very annoying.
From experience, in 3 set tennis, there is generally a trend where the winner of the 2nd set will win the match (should they have lost the opening set, of course).

There's no harm in betting small stakes for a couple of weeks whilst you get into watching it more. Perhaps deposit a tenner and see what happens.

A good idea I believe would be to look at the fixtures in the morning, and pick out winners in games that stand out to you. Don't feel obliged to pick a winner in every game as it's not that easy in some, but look at what's happening at Roland Garros tomorrow, for instance, write down winners, the number of sets you think there will be (the two way markets above and below 3.5 are generally the way to go) and at the end of the day, evaluate your picks. If you're calling above 50% then you're doing it right. I've had days where I've made 5/6 picks and called them all right, other days where I've made a number of picks and not had 1, so trialling it over 5 days or so would be beneficial. Remember, websites such as flashscore.com are your friends.
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TheInvincibles14
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#993
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#993
(Original post by jackf1337)
No problem at all, happy to be of assistance.

A lot of what I said is about pre match betting, but that doesn't mean you can't apply it to in play. In play betting can potentially be a big money maker on tennis, but you're then looking into slightly grey areas, such as the players frame of mind, how mentally strong they are etc. When I talk about those attributes, I'm getting at how the player reacts to getting broke, losing a set and so on. Do they crumble, or do they fight on? This is best learnt via watching games. Normally, the better/more experienced the player, the higher their mental strength is. Kvitova is a player renowned for her high mental strength, as well as the majority of the worlds top 10, although perhaps not so much in the womens game.
You can always look at previous games on flashscore.com and see where a player has gone behind and fought back, but it's often difficult to see what happens within a set.
The money is often in big players making comebacks. I remember backing Murray at 16/1 v Granollers at a set and double break down. I think by the time he won the tie break, he was down to about 1.66, where he then retired. Very, very annoying.
From experience, in 3 set tennis, there is generally a trend where the winner of the 2nd set will win the match (should they have lost the opening set, of course).

There's no harm in betting small stakes for a couple of weeks whilst you get into watching it more. Perhaps deposit a tenner and see what happens.

A good idea I believe would be to look at the fixtures in the morning, and pick out winners in games that stand out to you. Don't feel obliged to pick a winner in every game as it's not that easy in some, but look at what's happening at Roland Garros tomorrow, for instance, write down winners, the number of sets you think there will be (the two way markets above and below 3.5 are generally the way to go) and at the end of the day, evaluate your picks. If you're calling above 50% then you're doing it right. I've had days where I've made 5/6 picks and called them all right, other days where I've made a number of picks and not had 1, so trialling it over 5 days or so would be beneficial. Remember, websites such as flashscore.com are your friends.
Really good info, cheers once again. You seem to be an expert on tennis lol. I might just have small stakes on tennis following the tips on this thread, all the people who bet on tennis seem to be good. Betting on players when they are down in definitely a good strategy, one that I have used effectively on football.
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SloaneRanger
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#994
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#994
Yankees +5.5 or +4.5 is a good bet, if they lose they won't lose by that much.
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TheInvincibles14
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#995
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#995
(Original post by SloaneRanger)
Have you seen betting -2.5 points in a game etc might be value in certain games.
What on earth has happened to the Yankees!!! 5-0 down and the 1st inning isn't over. Incredible. And to think they were 1/2 on ML to win the game.
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jackf1337
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#996
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#996
Looks like Yankees have screwed up my night before it even began.
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SloaneRanger
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#997
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#997
(Original post by TheInvincibles14)
What on earth has happened to the Yankees!!! 5-0 down and the 1st inning isn't over. Incredible. And to think they were 1/2 on ML to win the game.
I don't bet phelps or hughes starts or even nuno.

He got hit in the arm last week in tampa remember

I only bet set game handicaps. like -2.5 or -1.5 1st set and game handicaps

taken the braves +3.5 runs 10/11
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SloaneRanger
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#998
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#998
everyone has pitchers they bet on you guys like matt harvey, i don't bet him

Verlander/Buckholz/Sanchez I rate highly.
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Nightowk
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#999
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#999
Hey its Cringe here, had to make a new account. Been betting in-play tennis and after losing on the opening day on sunday I have made about 100 quid since then. After losing on sunday I made a few rules for myself I though I'd share:

1) Make sure you've got a stream to the game. No lazy betting, just because the odds on someone to hold are 1.10, doesn't mean they'll hold serve.

2) Start with 5 pounds. Someone started with 20 and used Serena's serve and made 30 quid, thats good, but one time you will lose and then you've lost 20 instead of 5. Personally, 5 is a good starting point for me.

3) Never ride someones serve for more than 2-3 consecutive games, no matter how good they are, when it gets to deuce, you'll start worrying, its not good for the heart.

4) Never bet on the opening service games, its suprising how many breaks you see in the opening service game and then they break right back. Similarly, never bet on close out games, for example when its 5-3 and serving for the set, the opponent will play risky and pull off some ground shots you've never seen before to make it 5-4 as its their only chance to stay in the set.

5) Other market I like when I've got a healthy balance are "Next game to deuce?" on 365 and I think Sky also have it, odds are usually between 3.00-4.00 quite tasty imo which has won me a fair bit, but you need to be a good judge of how the opponent is serving. I prefer this market to judging an actual break of serve, an unbelievable number of games go to deuce.

6) Make sure you enjoy the game you're betting on. It adds so much to the outcome even if you lose by a couple of quid in the end.

Now I'm going to watch game 7 between Detroit and chicago NHL...normally I'd have money on it but its far riskier than in play tennis....which is becoming somewhat of a favourite of mine, so far.
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TheInvincibles14
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#1000
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#1000
(Original post by SloaneRanger)
everyone has pitchers they bet on you guys like matt harvey, i don't bet him

Verlander/Buckholz/Sanchez I rate highly.
I also like Zimmermann that's why I took Nationals tonight. Guys a stud has 1.72 ERA.

Picks tonight:

Nationals
Pirates
Cardinals -1.5
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