China's economic successors

So according to the Think Tank Stratfor China is slowing down and so they have identified 16 nations that they believe will take China's place as fast growing up and coming economic powers. Below is a map showing the nations.

Spoiler

So what do people think of these nations, will they become large economic powers? Will we see similar growth in these nations as we have in China?

I stole the map from this article: The PC16: Identifying China's Successors You can read it for free but they want an email address :rolleyes:

Only briefly read it so I can't comment too much on their speculation or rationale

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Reply 1

MatureStudent36

It's very easy to grow quickly when you're starting from such a weak position.

Reply 2

locrian37

Why can't you copy the article here?

Reply 3

MagicNMedicine

Original post by MatureStudent36

It's very easy to grow quickly when you're starting from such a weak position.

Probably Rwanda, Mozambique, Somalia then.

Reply 4

Eloquai

China's successors? I'm certainly not of the 'China is going to rule the world and its economy' school, but it has only gone from 7.7% to 7.5% growth. Hardly time to be talking of successors just yet.

Reply 5

Aj12

Original post by locrian37

Why can't you copy the article here?

Just for you :tongue:

Spoiler

Read more: The PC16: Identifying China's Successors | Stratfor
Follow us: @stratfor on Twitter | Stratfor on Facebook

Reply 6

Aphalleon

Original post by Eloquai

What this guy is saying. Yes China is slowing down and will probably slow down even further by the end of this decade, but that is what the Chinese government wants (to avoid overheating and to change from an investment and export oriented model to a consumption based model).

All of those 16 countries will grow at a rapid pace as well, but none of them will ever have the economic clout that China has nor will it ever be such a big economic miracle that China was.

The only exception COULD be India but it has a lot of challenges and obstacles to overcome

Reply 7

VeniViciVidi

I made a post on this and I can't be bothered to re-type my perspective on it again so I'll just link it to you.

http://geopoliticalcompass.blogspot.co.uk/2013/07/china-slowing-growth-and-political.html

For the lazy..

Spoiler

Reply 8

navarre

It's very hard to give credence to this new list. Experts have been repeatedly predicting countries' rise for ages now. China, the country they like to hark on the most, still hasn't come close to overtaking the US economy and is still starkly inadequate to compete with the US in terms of military. I do think China will continue its growth and continue to become a superpower, but on par with the US, not instead of.

Even the BRIC prediction has not proven true. India is the most promising nation, but it has so many problems that stall its economy. It'll have to tackle with huge social problems over the coming years. Brazil is still growing but much more slowly, and Russia's economy isn't doing too well, and is marred by corruption, centralisation and a decreasing population.

I do reckon that nations like Mexico, the Philippines and Indonesia will continue to grow, though.

Reply 9

Aj12

I'll be honest I think they just picked any country that looked likely to see quick economic development. This way they appear to be bale to predict the future whilst at the same time they have picked so many countries at least one of them is likely to turn out to be right.

Reply 10

Leondrip

To be a financial hegemon a nation needs to have abundant resources and a cheap labour pool. Whilst the 13 emerging 'successors' that have been pointed out will no doubt continue to grow, China is a far larger, far more historically adept nation.

All the nations pointed out are far too small to be the leader. They are backchatter politically and economically. The only feasible successor would be a competitive regional bloc.

Personally, with the BRICS Development Bank in construction and the Eurasian Community finally beginning to mould itself, it'll be more of a regional battle between the EU, Eurasian Community, (+BRICS) and the U.S., rather than the meager countries pointed out to have short-term growth from, as a previous poster pointed out, a peripheral position of primary production.

Reply 11

DenghisKhan

I really find it hard to trust any of these reviews and studies. Just like when I read about China 'taking over the world'. China's economic development in figures is just not representative of economic development in real terms across the broad population. The fact is that China's wealth is concentrated in very small pockets of population that are demographically spread out across a massive area. Social mobility is still extremely low with future wealth still highly dependent on the outrageously intense Gao Kao uniform university exams. In my personal opinion, these are major, MAJOR issues that countries such as US, UK and the majority of EU countries did not have to face during their own economic boom eras, and if they did, then to a FAR lesser extent. I don't think a country is fully able to take on the mantle of being a 'superpower' unless they go some way to addressing the massive poor/rich divide that is present in so many of the so called up and coming economic powers. But then again I can't see this happening any time soon in China, not unless the current crop of politicians die out quickly. At the risk of sounding like a pretentious a**e, as someone who grew immersed in both British and Chinese culture, to me, it's plain to see that Mao still has an effect on the youth of today in China (though it's dying out) and that effects just about everything that everyone does on a daily basis. THAT I believe, is the main obstacle to becoming a true superpower. Though that is a whole other conversation that I can't be bothered to get into now...Good thread though!

Reply 12

cl_steele

i doubt it, mostof these countries have rather unpleasant problems already which wont be solved in the near future... they all suffer from hugepopulations, internal strife etc. theonlything going formostofthem is dirt cheap labour or natural resources... leaving aside theyre corruptas hell :rolleyes:

either way they will all go the same way as every other power... workers will demand rightsprices will rise and they will fall... we saw it here, europe, america and beginings in china we're running out of countries to exploit...

Reply 13

DenghisKhan

Original post by cl_steele

That's simplifying it a bit.....

Reply 14

Rakas21

My personal opinion is that Brazil, Indonesia and Mexico will be the primary stories (along with China) until say 2050, there are countries which get close in resources and labour but the three mentioned are already well ahead of the Likes of Nigeria and the East African Federation (assuming it forms).

Beyond this there is a lot of clutter (Phillipenes, Vietnam, Turkey ect..) however none of these will be the dominant regional players, let alone global.

Original post by navarre

Agreed. The problem with the BRICS is that Russia is poorly managed and suffering population decline which means it's growth is heavily dependent on certain exports and the proceeds from this not sufficiently exploited, India also while eventually the biggest economy on paper (probably) is a perpetual disappointment and to get China levels of growth will probably require a good decade to sufficiently restructure its economy and infrastructure.

In terms of the whole superpower thing China was only ever going to rival the USA economically.

The main talking point over the next decades i believe will be the emergence of regional blocks giving an advantage to those countries like the USA, EU, South America, China, India and Indonesia. African blocks will probably take too long to catch up to play important global roles and most other countries will be side stories.

Reply 15

ukmed108

Original post by navarre

Yeah, people overhype it just for views. Reality is China has its own problems and is not looking for a fight with the US. Just consider that if you go to China, most people are very envious of the US. China sends thousands of students to study at US universities each year for instance.

Also, while the US is rather united as a country, China is not. Its a large group of different ethnic groups that all have their stereotypes and long held beliefs. There are even language barriers. This is because for thousands of years transportation limitations have made communication difficult. The US is still young, so they are united. Its not even really a comparison. China will continue to grow economically, instituting reforms and eventually settling in as a 1st world nation. This will take it to about 2040-2050. After that well no one knows. Anyone who can predict what will happen in 40 years with certainty will be very very rich indeed.

Reply 16

Sammy Lanka

Lets face it china is now screwed. They built an economy based on cheap labor from poor workers. Their economy grew rapidly as companies from all over the world sent product there to be manufactured. The thing is that the people are less poor now and are demanding better wages. Labor is therefore less cheap. Companies move out and factories close. This is compounded by rising fuel costs meaning that companies want their products manufactured closer to home.

China built a rapid growing economy with no future planning and will soon be paying a heavy price

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Reply 17

serebro

I think the EU will see some resurgence, with the increasing new additions like Croatia (small but it's something) and perhaps big players like Turkey. Ties with Russia are economically better, though I don't see them being the best of friends concerning human rights. I still think Russia will become a bigger (but not major) power again, despite the corruption and population issues, exports grow and the welfare is improving steadily.

Not sure what will happen to the US, Canada, Japan (and perhaps South Korea). If the US fall under China, an establishment joining all 3/4 nations could be a good answer to maintain their status. Especially since Japan and South Korea are the black sheep of the Asian family (look at China and NK for instance!)

But, I suspect Mexico, South Africa, India, Indonesia, Brazil and Argentina could become more serious players in the future.

For me, I think superpower trading blocs and unions will be more present in the future than just one superpower nation.

Reply 18

Sammy Lanka

Original post by Aj12

Spoiler

Only briefly read it so I can't comment too much on their speculation or rationale

Most of this map is bs. Bangladesh won't even exist in a few years due to rising sea. Tanzania/Kenya are only rising due to tourism and that won't increase much. DR has more room for growth in tourism but will never be a super power. Tbh I can't remember the rest of the map

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Reply 19

DenghisKhan

China's growth has been utterly dependent on the minority having lots and lots of money and the poor (mainly migrant workers) propping up the bottom with cheap wages. I don't see cheap wages going away until social disparity is narrowed. That's China's main problem that it needs to fight - social immobility - The problem when you compare to this country, is that the poor do not get the opportunity to lift themselves out of their situation - whereas, for the most part, people in countries such as UK and US are able to do so, regardless of their own social situation. Ironically even though China is a so called' communist' state, it is not very socialist in barely any aspects that can actively support the worst-off in society. The lack of a meaningful welfare system allows a lot of people with great potential to slip through the cracks and never fully achieve their potential as a human being. That's a huge factor. Then again, it's not as easy as that. The issue is never solely one of social and economic reform but something that has to come from the very basis of culture in China - that's something that is still highly influenced by events of 1949 and the subsequent years.