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Can China still surpass the US economy? Watch

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    With the current economic slowdown, the need to change to a consumption based economy, real estate bubble, demographic problems etc. Do you think that China can still surpass the US economy this century?

    China's GDP by the end of 2013- 9.02 trillion growing at roughly 7-7.5%
    US GDP by the end of 2013- 16.2 trillion growing at 1-2%
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    Their growth at this rate isn't sustainable. China is still heavily reliant on the US for their purchasing power, and they won't be able to advance much futher than their present point until they switch to a consumer based economy. Bear in mind that if people stopped buying Chinese tomorrow their economy would be down the tubes, and I know this isn't likely to happen but it's certainly something to consider.
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    Not for a while. The Chinese economy is slowing down and the US economy is starting to pick up. In addition, as long as the dollar remains the dominant means of exchange in the world, the US will economy will remain the most important (if not necessarily the largest).
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    China will surpass the US economy despite the US pickup. But they will be two very different economies, each with their own unique challenges to overcome and their own unique strengths.

    I think the Chinese economy still has much maturing to do, in particular with regard to loosening up their capital and currency flows. This will bring increased risks, but also increased opportunity for stability and growth.
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    Nope. China neither has the geography nor the demographic to surpass the United States. China has fuelled its growth on the back of 900m poverty ridden employees, dependant (uncomfortably so, for the Chinese government) on Western consumerism. Hence, China are moving to urbanization and a consumerist lead model of society which will present political and social challenges. We are seeing the minimum wage in certain regions rising by some 40% to accommodate this change. Japan had the same model up until the 90s and was able to convert its export-driven economy into a consumerist one. It did this with establishing a niche in predominately technological advancement, robotics, electronics and being a pioneer in innovation. Crucially, it didn't have such a large population to contend with the transition and it also possessed the infrastructure and societal culture to become a consumer-lead economy. Without a doubt, this was possible by its dependency on Western investment.

    It will be interesting to see how China manages this transition. They'll do it gradually and pragmatically but the China we know for the past three decades will be a thing of the past.
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    Awkward one. Will China have a higher DP than the US? Yes.

    Why? There's so many of them in China.

    Will China be able to punch at the same level of the US on the International stage? No. It's too large and fragmented.
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    They said Japan would overtake the US in the 80s...:K:
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    they are silently waiting for the next US bubble burst that according to rumours is coming soon.China has put heavy regulations on banks even if it brings less growth.Then they will overtake the US
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    China already has surpassed the US in one measure, at least in terms of PPP.

    In straight exchange rates, not until a decade or so at the earliest.
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    (Original post by MatureStudent36)
    Awkward one. Will China have a higher DP than the US? Yes.

    Why? There's so many of them in China.

    Will China be able to punch at the same level of the US on the International stage? No. It's too large and fragmented.
    er.. the US is physically bigger than China.

    And yeah.. the US is and never has been multi-cultural lol.. China is perhaps more ethically homogenous as most are Han. Even though most in the US are still white, this could be UK ancestry, German, Dutch, Italian, Polish, Russian, etc. The USA became a world power and then superpower because of its size anyhow.
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    (Original post by c.a1979)
    er.. the US is physically bigger than China.
    China is roughly the same size as the U.S. geographically and it's population is over four times larger. By both measures, the U.S. isn't exactly considerably larger.
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    well all it needs is around 5pc growth without going into a recession. it will have to switch its economy from mainly government investment to more consumption. with a population four times the us it still only needs a gdp per capita of around a quarter of the us which should be possible.
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    Doubt it. The switch will be a difficult one because the PRC has gotten into a damned if you do damned if you don't situation:

    We already know the current economic model of a lot of government stimulus won't do it in the long run, as this has led to a range of projects that were approved to keep the flow of income going but aren't used for anything else which leads to a waste in resources e.g. ghost towns and replica villages. Not to mention that the inefficiency present will make it less competitive in the long run compared to their economic competitors e.g. in the ASEAN bloc.

    Switching to a more consumerist led economy will mean that the "invisible hand" of capitalism will have more of an effect on the markets. If that happens, theoretically, resources are allocated to where they can be best used based on consumer demand, ironing out inefficiency. Problem is, a lot of companies in China are inefficient partly due to the immense government spending. Take that out, inefficient companies would likely go bust, and along with it, the jobs of many workers, extend that to all inefficient companies and you'll have the Chinese Politburo's worst nightmare: a ton of hungry, jobless and pissed off workers.
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    (Original post by AttackofTheBoris)
    They said Japan would overtake the US in the 80s...:K:
    Completely different. The US has over double Japan's population and so for Japan to overtake the US it would need to have over double the US's GDP per capita. China is over 4 times the US population, so only needs to get to a small fraction of US GDP per capita to overtake its GDP.
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    (Original post by Aphalleon)
    With the current economic slowdown, the need to change to a consumption based economy, real estate bubble, demographic problems etc. Do you think that China can still surpass the US economy this century?

    China's GDP by the end of 2013- 9.02 trillion growing at roughly 7-7.5%
    US GDP by the end of 2013- 16.2 trillion growing at 1-2%
    In raw GDP then there's no doubt that China and India will overtake the USA (China between 2020-2025, India probably 2035-2040). In terms of GDP per capita however India has no chance and China has significant issues on the horizon like the coming population collapse however it will probably only catch up very slowly.
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    yes it will. but what does it prove.

    china has 1.5 billion people. US has 300 million.

    GDP is not necessarily an indicator of wealth. just population size.

    what matters is per capita income.

    for example, china has afar bigger economy than switzerland. but, where would you rather live?
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    (Original post by thebiggy)
    yes it will. but what does it prove.

    china has 1.5 billion people. US has 300 million.

    GDP is not necessarily an indicator of wealth. just population size.

    what matters is per capita income.

    for example, china has afar bigger economy than switzerland. but, where would you rather live?
    Even then, one single nationwide per capita statistic can be a very arbitrary picture of the overall economy of a nation. This is especially true in China, where national wealth is still concentrated largely in the higher echelons of society and the state, whilst hundreds of millions remain in poverty.
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    most likely... world powers seem to be very cyclical in that respect after all a few centuries ago china was [and please correct me if you think im wrong] the worlds biggest economy although that being said the same will hppen to them as happened to britain and is happening to the US... people will demand higher wages making it less attractive for cheap labour and it will eventually burn out like the uk and america. In the mean time though they have the ability to surpass the US in certain aspects but as other posters said just because their nominal GDP is bigger doesnt make them richer.
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    I think people are underestimating the power of the Chinese economy. It has shown to be robust in times of economic decline and 30 years ago no one would have imagined that its economy is comparable to that of the US.
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    The former campaign manager of Bill Clinton seems to think it's not very likely
 
 
 
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