Lady Comstock
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#1
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#1
Thoughts on this?

Would just be funny to see the Guardian's reaction if anything.
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Joeman560
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#2
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#2
Depending on the outcome of the Euro elections this may end up happening.
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EllieC130
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#3
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#3
We'll be stuck in the EU forever.
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Solivagant
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#4
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#4
Wouldn't happen.
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IAmABaws
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#5
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#5
I'd quite like that actually, although a vote for UKIP is a vote for labour


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anarchism101
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#6
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#6
Won't happen.

Firstly, UKIP won't get enough seats for it to be worth it. They're currently polling at about 10-12% and they'd probably need to nearly double that just to get into double figures in terms of seats.

Secondly, UKIP's only real demand - an EU referendum - is far more than the number of seats they will get warrants. If the Tories really wanted an extra 9 or 10 seats (assuming UKIP get that much, which I very much doubt) to vote with them, then the Northern Irish unionists will probably support them for a much lower price.

Thirdly, this can only really happen if both UKIP and the Tories are strong at the next election. The Tories were 20 seats short of a majority in 2010. For a UKIP-Tory coalition to work, the Tories would probably need to not just maintain their position, but gain a few seats.
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Fizzel
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#7
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As said seems unlikely, UKIP are taking some seats from Labour but the margins they need to actually get a decent number of seats are going to come from the Tories. I think some predictors had it a 16% for UKIP to start getting seats, and over 20% before they start getting them in numbers. UKIP are at 17% now, before their party has to stand up to the election glare, and if people like Bloom are anything to go by there will be a fair few gaffs.
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fred292
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#8
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#8
I would vote that
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Yi-Ge-Ningderen
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#9
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#9
(Original post by anarchism101)
Won't happen.

Firstly, UKIP won't get enough seats for it to be worth it. They're currently polling at about 10-12% and they'd probably need to nearly double that just to get into double figures in terms of seats.

Secondly, UKIP's only real demand - an EU referendum - is far more than the number of seats they will get warrants. If the Tories really wanted an extra 9 or 10 seats (assuming UKIP get that much, which I very much doubt) to vote with them, then the Northern Irish unionists will probably support them for a much lower price.

Thirdly, this can only really happen if both UKIP and the Tories are strong at the next election. The Tories were 20 seats short of a majority in 2010. For a UKIP-Tory coalition to work, the Tories would probably need to not just maintain their position, but gain a few seats.

10% would be in many many seats to lose a tory MP his seat, therefore you could have a strange situation where a partnership is agreed when one party (UKIP) has only a couple of possible no MP's of its own.

The Irish MP's have a whole new set of issues to deal with and I think most Westminster parties would prefer to let them get on with it and not import a whole new issue.

I truly believe that a partnership of these two parties would be the best scenario for Britain's future.
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Yi-Ge-Ningderen
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(Original post by Fizzel)
As said seems unlikely, UKIP are taking some seats from Labour but the margins they need to actually get a decent number of seats are going to come from the Tories. I think some predictors had it a 16% for UKIP to start getting seats, and over 20% before they start getting them in numbers. UKIP are at 17% now, before their party has to stand up to the election glare, and if people like Bloom are anything to go by there will be a fair few gaffs.
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As I typed above, they may not actually need to be predicted to win seats, the threat of them in effect losing the seats of the Tory MP's may be enough.

To be honest, in many ways UKIP are what the Tory party historically should be.
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L i b
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#11
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UKIP's not worth the effort of a coalition. If the Tories, with a pledge to hold a referendum in 2017, joined with UKIP then it would undoubtedly collapse after the vote was held, and they'd come out condemning the government of which they'd just involved in. When you've got one major policy, why bother with the rest?

They'll struggle to get a single seat in 2015, so I'm not really sure why we'd be arguing this hypothetical. The only coalition the Tories would seriously consider will be with the Lib Dems.
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PGtips
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#12
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#12
Farage is an undercover tory anyway, so he would be in Cameron's ass even more than Clegg.
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Cheese_Monster
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#13
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Well as UKIP have no seats, and will probably gain about two in the next General Election, they're not a very feasible potential coalition partner for the Tories.
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Yi-Ge-Ningderen
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#14
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(Original post by L i b)
UKIP's not worth the effort of a coalition. If the Tories, with a pledge to hold a referendum in 2017, joined with UKIP then it would undoubtedly collapse after the vote was held, and they'd come out condemning the government of which they'd just involved in. When you've got one major policy, why bother with the rest?

They'll struggle to get a single seat in 2015, so I'm not really sure why we'd be arguing this hypothetical. The only coalition the Tories would seriously consider will be with the Lib Dems.
The Lib Dems are finished. I expect huge decreases in votes for them in this years Euro elections and in the next general election.
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MagicNMedicine
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#15
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(Original post by Yi-Ge-Ningderen)
The Lib Dems are finished. I expect huge decreases in votes for them in this years Euro elections and in the next general election.
And yet they will still have more MPs in 2015 than UKIP will have, and are considerably more likely to be in government in 2015 than UKIP are.
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Yi-Ge-Ningderen
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#16
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(Original post by MagicNMedicine)
And yet they will still have more MPs in 2015 than UKIP will have, and are considerably more likely to be in government in 2015 than UKIP are.
UKIP will control policies more though. All the recent talk about immigration and EU membership is down to UKIP. The Lib Dems do nothing apart from say things that the vast majority of the public disagree with.
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andrew2209
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#17
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The problem with saying that the Lib Dems are finished, and that UKIP won't get enough deats, is that we could have a hung parliament with both Labour and the Conservatives on around 300 seats, give or take a few. In that instance, all the smaller parties could have a say in who ultimately forms a government.

At the moment that's improbable, but there's still a lot of time before May 2015.
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L i b
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#18
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#18
(Original post by Yi-Ge-Ningderen)
The Lib Dems are finished. I expect huge decreases in votes for them in this years Euro elections and in the next general election.
The Lib Dems have a solid incumbency in many of the seats they represent. They'll probably go down, but realistically I don't think it'll be anywhere near as far as what you suggest. 35 seats possibly, but not much lower.
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WeeGuy
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#19
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#19
Dont think it will happen.
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Liquid Swordsman
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#20
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#20
Almost certain not to happen, would be pretty similar to the current government if it did, but worse.
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