How to win a tipping competition? Watch
There’s 47 people in the competition, including me.
I've found a website which calculates each team’s chance of winning based on various parameters. I don’t know how reliable their numbers are but it’s likely to be more accurate than bookmakers’ odds and much more accurate than any numbers I could come up with on my own.
The question is: do I always pick the favourite according to the website? This seems like a given, but I’m not convinced that this is the optimal strategy. Since it’s winner takes all, I figure that I should be taking more risks and sacrificing some expected value to go for the win. For example, Team 1 is playing Team 2, and the winning probabilities are 62%/38%. I have stats on what proportion of people have picked each team 90%/10%.
Since Team 1 is not a huge favourite and 90% of people have picked them, is it worth taking a risk and picking the other team in the hopes of getting lucky and winning a point that the vast majority of people won’t get? Or is the tipping proportion irrelevant and I should just be considering the winning chances?
If tipping proportion is a valid consideration, how do I calculate when to tip an underdog? Is there a way to simulate this to determine the optimal strategy to win this competition?
Not sure about NRL but in football, things like home advantage, recent form, fatigue, injuries, referee, lineups, importance, etc.. all count.
Assume that the website gives the 'true' winning probabilities since I don't know of any other source that is more accurate (definitely not my own brain/calculations)