Who will win the 2015 General election? Watch

shaw16
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Can the Conservatives win outright? Both Labour and the Liberal Democrats have been politically embarrassed with the crystal methodist, Lord Rennard and links to PIE to name but a few. (I can't remember any Tory scandals off the top of my head - anyone enlighten me?) Is this enough to discredit them? With the promise of a European referendum for the first time in forty years and what appears to be steady economic recovery will the Tories win a second term with or without the Lib-dems?
Or will UKIP surprise, split the Tory vote land lead to a Lab-Lib coalition?

Predictions,comments and observations welcome.
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CFL2013
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Lib Dems will be massacred (lol), most their supporters will naturally drift to Labour.

So, despite the shambles they left the place last time, clear Labour majority.

Can sort of see why politicians hate letting us vote to be fair.
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captain.sensible
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"not the liberal democrats"
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No Man
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As long as it's not Labour (even though it probably will be) and the Liberal Democrats are banished (as they will be), I don't really care.
In fact, I'll probably laugh at the site of Nick Clegg crying.
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Rakas21
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(Original post by shaw16)
Can the Conservatives win outright? Both Labour and the Liberal Democrats have been politically embarrassed with the crystal methodist, Lord Rennard and links to PIE to name but a few. (I can't remember any Tory scandals off the top of my head - anyone enlighten me?) Is this enough to discredit them? With the promise of a European referendum for the first time in forty years and what appears to be steady economic recovery will the Tories win a second term with or without the Lib-dems?
Or will UKIP surprise, split the Tory vote land lead to a Lab-Lib coalition?

Predictions,comments and observations welcome.
I think the Tories have a chance of attaining a minority (not a majority) but it requires no less than 34% of the vote and the Lib Dems to do reasonably well compared to current polling to prevent Labour from gaining too much. Sadly though, their is a high probability of a Labour majority or coalition government.
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meenu89
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Labour win outright, a small smile on my face if the Liberal Democrats lose half their seats.
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Alfissti
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The way things are going I highly doubt there would be a Tory majority, cracks are already forming within that party and it doesn't appear even the PM is in any position that could remotely be considered as safe.

If there is a Tory minority government, probably would be someone else as PM before 2016 as there would definitely be a leadership crisis.

Labour majority? I'll give it a 51% chance that it could happen with that current idiot as leader, now if it was his brother who came back to lead I'd say 70%

Lib-Lab coalition? 80% as I doubt they would lose near as much seats as everyone predicts they would lose. Clegg probably would be history though.
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SHallowvale
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(Original post by shaw16)
Can the Conservatives win outright? Both Labour and the Liberal Democrats have been politically embarrassed with the crystal methodist, Lord Rennard and links to PIE to name but a few. (I can't remember any Tory scandals off the top of my head - anyone enlighten me?) Is this enough to discredit them? With the promise of a European referendum for the first time in forty years and what appears to be steady economic recovery will the Tories win a second term with or without the Lib-dems?
Or will UKIP surprise, split the Tory vote land lead to a Lab-Lib coalition?

Predictions,comments and observations welcome.
I doubt one party will win (that is, get a majority of seats in the HoC).

I expect that the public will just forget political scandals.

I expect that a rise in UKIP votes will just harm the conservatives (given how the FPTP system works). I don't think UKIP will aquire many seats (maybe none), unless something unusual happens.
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SHallowvale
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(Original post by No Man)
As long as it's not Labour (even though it probably will be) and the Liberal Democrats are banished (as they will be), I don't really care.
In fact, I'll probably laugh at the site of Nick Clegg crying.
How do you know that the Liberal Democrats will be banished?
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No Man
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(Original post by SHallowvale)
How do you know that the Liberal Democrats will be banished?
I'm 99% sure that they will be.
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SHallowvale
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(Original post by No Man)
I'm 99% sure that they will be.
For what reason do you think that the Liberal Democrats will be banished after the 2015 general election?
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No Man
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(Original post by SHallowvale)
For what reason do you think that the Liberal Democrats will be banished after the 2015 general election?
I haven't seen any substantial evidence of support for them since the tuition fee scandal.
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SMEGGGY
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Conservatives

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SHallowvale
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(Original post by No Man)
I haven't seen any substantial evidence of support for them since the tuition fee scandal.
While it is true that the Liberal Democrats are doing worse in the opinion polls (than they were in 2010):

http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/voting-intention-2
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/voting-intention-2005-2010

...there doesn't appear to be any correlation between the number of seats gained by a party and the share of the votes they get:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Liberal...ctoral_results
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andrew2209
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I think it could be another hung parliament, with the Lib Dems possibly able to get into government again, to the outcry of most of the media.
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WharfedaleTiger
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Labour majority is the most likely outcome for me - our lead is pretty solid and the electoral system favours us. Next most likely is a Lab/Lib coalition alongside the SDLP, Greens (if they have an MP) and other minor parties.

Its going to be close though!
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Rakas21
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(Original post by No Man)
I haven't seen any substantial evidence of support for them since the tuition fee scandal.
Can't see how that would happen (not least because their 34% in the south west is not reliant on the student vote), in addition the fact that they only fell to 16% in the locals makes me think they won't get lower than that.

(Original post by SHallowvale)
While it is true that the Liberal Democrats are doing worse in the opinion polls (than they were in 2010):

http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/voting-intention-2
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/voting-intention-2005-2010

...there doesn't appear to be any correlation between the number of seats gained by a party and the share of the votes they get:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Liberal...ctoral_results
This is indeed the case and helped a lot by the fact that Tories are in second in a lot of their seats. My own prediction is 16-19% but having trawled through their seats i actually think they'll lose only 13.

The only way they start shedding is if for some reason the Tories don't get hurt anywhere near as much as them which is not the pattern of local elections or by-election averages where the swings have been similar implying Tory-Lib seats will probably stay as they are.
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Rakas21
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(Original post by andrew2209)
I think it could be another hung parliament, with the Lib Dems possibly able to get into government again, to the outcry of most of the media.
The media perhaps but actually Lord Ashcroft's polling suggests that around a third of the electorate actually want to see them in another coalition, a weird situation then where more people may want them to stop a Lab-Con majority than actually want to vote for the Libs themselves.
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jillymayr
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Labour
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euphful
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My 2015 prediction:

UKIP won't win a seat; the may increase their vote share but I there just isn't enough concentrated support to win a seat as far as I can tell. Coming second in every seat they challenge is meaningless.

Lib Dems will lose seats but not enough to describe it as a 'meltdown'; their strongholds are just that- strong.

Labour majority of between 40-80- to win, the Tories need to increase their share of the vote quite substantially from 2010. I can't see that happening.



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