The Miscellaneous Thread

Anybody around know something about [the mathsy side of] economics? specifically macroeconomic models :colonhash:

Reply 6804

Original post by hayles101

I've been on this forum for years, since like 2005 would you believe (although stopped using a bit in uni as was so busy) and never been to one meet. Think it's cause they've always been in London and that's a mission for NI, even now in the North East :frown:

Surely Yorkshire could be a suggestion as it's in the middle-ish? :tongue:

Posted from TSR Mobile

Didn't realise you signed up within 20 days of me :lol:

A meet should obviously be in Manchester, as we are football, and Manchester United is football.

Reply 6805

Original post by hayles101

I've been on this forum for years, since like 2005 would you believe (although stopped using a bit in uni as was so busy) and never been to one meet. Think it's cause they've always been in London and that's a mission for NI, even now in the North East :frown:

Surely Yorkshire could be a suggestion as it's in the middle-ish? :tongue:

Posted from TSR Mobile

Haha, have been on this forum since 2005 too, lost my details for my previous account and have had this one since 2007. It is quite addictive tbh.

Original post by samba

Anybody around know something about [the mathsy side of] economics? specifically macroeconomic models :colonhash:

I done a Bsc Economics degree and graduated in 2012 so I am not sure how much I know. What area are you talking about is it the Solow model (advanced macro) with R&D or economic growth or are we talking about something in the first year of your degree?

(edited 9 years ago)

Reply 6806

Original post by samiz20891

Haha, have been on this forum since 2005 too, lost my details for my previous account and have had this one since 2007. It is quite addictive tbh.

I done

Done = do or don't? :p:

Reply 6807

Original post by samba

Done = do or don't? :p:

TSR cut my post off on my phone, just look above now, :smile:

Reply 6808

Original post by samiz20891

Haha, have been on this forum since 2005 too, lost my details for my previous account and have had this one since 2007. It is quite addictive tbh.

I done

Page 12-13 (mainly 13) http://www.lse.ac.uk/economicHistory/workingPapers/2012/WP163.pdf

I understand why money was exogenous to output in this instance, and what the Mundell/Fleming model is, but I don't understand his economics [I'm a historian!] and how/why he got those formulas to model Weimar. Probably very simple stuff!

Thanks :smile:

Reply 6809

Lúcio

19

Original post by hayles101

I've been on this forum for years, since like 2005 would you believe (although stopped using a bit in uni as was so busy) and never been to one meet. Think it's cause they've always been in London and that's a mission for NI, even now in the North East :frown:

Surely Yorkshire could be a suggestion as it's in the middle-ish? :tongue:

Original post by jam277

Yorkshire, Luke will be happy at least. We'll see what everyone else says.

i'm actually pretty flattered you remember i'm originally from yorkshire; just assumed everybody ignores 80% of what i say and calls me out for pars with the rest.

Original post by So Instinct

TSR goes to Singapore. I'm in.

yorkshire white boy goes to Singapore.
let's do it.

Original post by samba

Didn't realise you signed up within 20 days of me :lol:

A meet should obviously be in Manchester, as we are football, and Manchester United is football.

Lol.

Reply 6810

Original post by samba

Page 12-13 (mainly 13) http://www.lse.ac.uk/economicHistory/workingPapers/2012/WP163.pdf

I understand why money was exogenous to output in this instance, and what the Mundell/Fleming model is, but I don't understand his economics [I'm a historian!] and how/why he got those formulas to model Weimar. Probably very simple stuff!

Thanks :smile:

It's been a while since I have done this and can't remember doing much on this topic. I can't get the symbols on my phone fully but I give it a go.
From what I understand, given it has been a while since I have seen it.
You have a time series model which is measuring variables one period ahead. You have constants that may affect the model, yt.

Now Bt (interested object) = pi Bt-1 + (1-pi) Bbar + vt.
So the parameter Pi will be crucial as this will determine how the model behaves.
So let's say we set Pi to zero, we Bt = Bbar + vt, this means that the coefficients will be stationary, So stationary means that the statistical properties such as mean, variance are all constant over time. This also makes it easier to forecast using a B-j Methodology.
If we say pi is 1, we get Bt=Bt-1 +vt, so as to say that today value of Bt is equivalent to the last value of Bt, I.e.bt-1 plus a random term, vt and this model is called a random walk as it is difficult to accurately predict this model as we have no idea what today vt value will be.

I hope that helps.

(edited 9 years ago)

Reply 6811

Original post by samiz20891

It's been a while since I have done this and can't remember doing much on this topic. I can't get the symbols on my phone fully but I give it a go.
From what I understand, given it has been a while since I have seen it.
You have a time series model which is measuring variables one period ahead. You have constants that may affect the model, yt.

Now Bt (interested object) = pi Bt-1 + (1-pi) Bbar + vt.
So the parameter Pi will be crucial as this will determine how the model behaves.
So let's say we set Pi to zero, we Bt = Bbar + vt, this means that the coefficients will be stationary, So stationary means that the statistical properties such as mean, variance are all constant over time. This also makes it easier to forecast using a B-j Methodology.
If we say pi is 1, we get Bt=Bt-1 +vt, so as to say that today value of Bt is equivalent to the last value of Bt, I.e.bt-1 plus a random term, vt and this model is called a random walk as it is difficult to accurately predict this model as we have no idea what today vt value will be.

I hope that helps.

Man I'm a historian so that makes no sense :sad:

I understand the following: M1 = moneys and yt is total output and that's about it! More reading to do I guess.

Reply 6812

AR_95

21

Any of you guys happen to play instruments/guitar and know any good shops in London with good deals? Been trying to find a store to pick up a good amp from for around 100 quid

Reply 6813

It's been a while since I have done this and can't remember doing much on this topic. I can't get the symbols on my phone fully but I give it a go.
From what I understand, given it has been a while since I have seen it.
You have a time series model which is measuring variables one period ahead. You have constants that may affect the model, yt.

Now Bt (interested object) = pi Bt-1 + (1-pi) Bbar + vt.
So the parameter Pi will be crucial as this will determine how the model behaves.
So let's say we set Pi to zero, we Bt = Bbar + vt, this means that the coefficients will be stationary, So stationary means that the statistical properties such as mean, variance are all constant over time. This also makes it easier to forecast using a B-j Methodology.
If we say pi is 1, we get Bt=Bt-1 +vt, so as to say that today value of Bt is equivalent to the last value of Bt, I.e.bt-1 plus a random term, vt and this model is called a random walk as it is difficult to accurately predict this model as we have no idea what today vt value will be.

Original post by samba

Man I'm a historian so that makes no sense :sad:

I understand the following: M1 = moneys and yt is total output and that's about it! More reading to do I guess.

Yeah, I guess that is complicated, I'll try to simplify it but you may need to read it as the meaning is as stated in the document.

So the parameter(term) Pi is what will determine what the model will produce.
So now try Pi = 0 into Bt=Pi.Bt-1 + (1-Pi)Bbar + vt, you will see Pi.Bt-1 will cancel our as Pi=0, so this leaves Bt= Bbar + vt.
Now but Pi= 1 into Bt = Bt-1 + vt, you will see (1-Pi)Bbar will cancel as Pi = 1.
The economics side of things here is what they mean, which you will need to read to understand tbh.
The first model is stationary which generally looks like it varies along a line so one term may be above and the next may be below the line...
The second model is called a random walk as you are saying the current term (Bt) is equal to the previous term (Bt-1) plus a random variable/error (vt).

Try to see if you get the maths as that should be more straightforward whilst the second part explains the economic meanings behind the models.

Reply 6814

So Instinct

20

Used to go to this place in Croydon for guitar and drumkit stuff , next to west Croydon station, but it got busted in the riots and i haven't been back since. They re-did the place up so you can check out.

Reply 6815

AR_95

21

Original post by So Instinct

Used to go to this place in Croydon for guitar and drumkit stuff , next to west Croydon station, but it got busted in the riots and i haven't been back since. They re-did the place up so you can check out.

A name would be helpful mate :tongue:

edit : I think you're talking about Rockbottom Music, will check it out

(edited 9 years ago)

Reply 6816

So Instinct

20

Original post by AR_95

A name would be helpful mate :tongue:

edit : I think you're talking about Rockbottom Music, will check it out

Yep its Rockbottom

Reply 6817

AR_95

21

Original post by So Instinct

Yep its Rockbottom

Have found a pretty good showroom in Clapham common 10mins away from me who've even agreed to knock down the price on the amp I wanted. Quite convenient eh

Reply 6818

ra-ra-ra

12

Original post by jam277

Na, still a pretty young guy. Feels weird being in my 20s though. 24 is a good age though. What's your plans in the future btw? Future manager of Atlético Mineiro or Porto? Or you gonna manage Benfica and intentionally get them relegated? :lol:

Ha, why does it feel weird? I’m trying to look at being 24 as more of a number than anything else. As long as I don’t begin to age badly, I’ll be fine. Considering I still get asked for ID for the Lottery tells me I don’t look my age but I don’t know whether I should be worried that they think I look under 16!!

I would never do that to Benfica, I’d miss them! I think we can say Jorge Jesus and Benfica fans are safe for now. I actually think I would make a terrible manager though. As for my actual future plans, I had saved up to use 2014 for travelling starting with the WC in Brazil and then make my way around South America until 2015 when I’d then come back and start my career. I actually applied for WC tickets too and between me and my friend we had tickets for three matches. As it turned out at the start of the year I received some devastating news which I won’t go into on here but I’ve had to put everything on hold. I guess not going meant I ended up doing that work for the FAW and now I’m doing that bit of work for Bangor City FC so I’ve managed to pick up a bit of experience in football and marketing which is the path I want to go down. Ideally on a more European / Worldwide scale though. Going to uni hasn't really benefited me in any way though, maybe in the future it will because it was a management degree but right now it just all seems a waste. Anymore ideas about what you want to do career-wise?

Reply 6819

Eboracum