Nightingales and rouletteWatch

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#1
Is there a flaw in the nightingales approach to roulette? Other than the table limit?

For anybody who doesn't know, the idea is that you start by betting £1 on a spin, if you win you get £2 back, if you lose, you then place £2 on, if you lose that you put £4 on.... if you lose that £8 ... and so on. It guarantees that you will always make a £1 gain on a trip to the table. Why isn't this system used all the time?
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15 years ago
#2
Because you may lose so much that you just won't bother continuing or you don't have enough for the next bet. Somehow or other, the house always wins.
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#3
(Original post by XTinaA)
Because you may lose so much that you just won't bother continuing or you don't have enough for the next bet. Somehow or other, the house always wins.
But if you wanted to, you could go with enough money to make that probability incredibly small.
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15 years ago
#4
(Original post by fishpaste)
But if you wanted to, you could go with enough money to make that probability incredibly small.
Is the bet a "red or black" bet then?
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#5
(Original post by XTinaA)
Is the bet a "red or black" bet then?
Yes.

So the probability of you losing is 0.52, so the probability of you being wrong 10 times in a row is 0.00145,

so if you took £1024 with you, you could guarantee making £1 with like 99.9% confidence. I see that £1 is little incentive to risk £1024 on one level, but on a cold statistical basis, it seems like it would be successful.
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15 years ago
#6
Also the "house" have ways of defeating the system. The impose betting limits etc.

And also there is also the presence of the green colour (zero) which will skew all the bets.
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#7
(Original post by 2776)
Also the "house" have ways of defeating the system. The impose betting limits etc.

And also there is also the presence of the green colour (zero) which will skew all the bets.
I guess the limits are the key then, because the green colour will not give the house an advantage other than forcing you to go on slightly longer to get your £1. What are the limits out of interest? I've never been in a casino, but if they're in the thousands, I'd imagine it'd still be successful to follow this strategy.
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15 years ago
#8
There is a card game on Bluesq.com where there is a similar bet. I once tried it starting with a balance of £10, I got up to £60 and then tried to be clever and went back to £10 and couldn't be bothered to do it all again as it took me ages.
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15 years ago
#9
(Original post by fishpaste)
I guess the limits are the key then, because the green colour will not give the house an advantage other than forcing you to go on slightly longer to get your £1. What are the limits out of interest? I've never been in a casino, but if they're in the thousands, I'd imagine it'd still be successful to follow this strategy.
Its \$500 for most casinos
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#10
(Original post by Daveo)
There is a card game on Bluesq.com where there is a similar bet. I once tried it starting with a balance of £10, I got up to £60 and then tried to be clever and went back to £10 and couldn't be bothered to do it all again as it took me ages.
Hm, I see, worked theoretically then?
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#11
(Original post by 2776)
Its \$500 for most casinos
Ah okay. So if you were wrong 9 times in a row you're buggered. That will only happen in 0.2% of cases, but considering how many times you'd have to visit the table to make a decent profit, e.g. you want to make £100, you're looking at a 20% risk you're going to lose £500. I see, interesting. Thanks everybody.
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15 years ago
#12
(Original post by fishpaste)
Hm, I see, worked theoretically then?
Yeah it just took me rather a while and I was really deflated when I lost.
The limit on that game is £250,000 so the probability if losing is very very low
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#13
(Original post by Daveo)
Yeah it just took me rather a while and I was really deflated when I lost.
The limit on that game is £250,000 so the probability if losing is very very low
Interesting, got any spare £250k lying about? :P
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15 years ago
#14
(Original post by fishpaste)
Interesting, got any spare £250k lying about? :P
In my back pocket.

Interestingly, has anybody heard about that guy who is selling all his assets in the vain attempt to make it big in Vegas, I think its being shown on Sky One.
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15 years ago
#15
(Original post by fishpaste)
Interesting, got any spare £250k lying about? :P
I wish, I always wanted to borrow like a million just for a day because if you can use big stakes to start with the gains would be worth having.
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15 years ago
#16
(Original post by Bhaal85)
In my back pocket.

Interestingly, has anybody heard about that guy who is selling all his assets in the vain attempt to make it big in Vegas, I think its being shown on Sky One.
Yeah i've seen that. Selling everything about (100k) then betting on red or black. Brave guy.
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15 years ago
#17
(Original post by Daveo)
Yeah i've seen that. Selling everything about (100k) then betting on red or black. Brave guy.
I saw some snippets of him selling some his things, like a rolex, and a proper mountain bike, being sold at ridiculously low prices. So he must of been living at a decent level. (I hope he fails.)
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15 years ago
#18
Hes making a nice tidy bit on it as well. With all those text messages voting for red/black.

I wonder if he wins...
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15 years ago
#19
(Original post by Bhaal85)
I saw some snippets of him selling some his things, like a rolex, and a proper mountain bike, being sold at ridiculously low prices. So he must of been living at a decent level. (I hope he fails.)
It would be so funny if he did lose. He also was paid £25,000 to change his name to XXXX BlueSquare-XXXX by BlueSq.com.

THe bet is infact tommorow, Live on sky1 i think.
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15 years ago
#20
(Original post by Daveo)
It would be so funny if he did lose. He also was paid £25,000 to change his name to XXXX BlueSquare-XXXX by BlueSq.com.

THe bet is infact tommorow, Live on sky1 i think.
I think I'll watch it. What sort of money would he stand to earn from the bet? Surely if there are an even number of red or black tile thingies, then the chance would be 1/2, therefore won't the winnings be low if the chance of winning is high? (Did that make sense?)
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