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#1
Report Thread starter 7 years ago
#1
Hey guys,

Annoyingly my first post in the thread disappeared so I guess will introduce myself again!

I've just graduated recently with a degree in econometrics and having bet on a few too many games in the past, I've always wanted to start a blog like this, just haven't had the time with uni commitments. Now that work commitments don't take up as much of my free time, I figured why not create one and see how it goes! even if its the end of the season lol.

So having completed a degree in econometrics, I hope/feel I have a decent understanding of statistical models and I've created my own one for predicting games. I hope to combine this with my knowledge (or lack of!) of football and keep a track of my progress and to share with you guys some of my ideas.

So I'll hopefully be posting every week with some of my ideas and we'll see how it goes! Thinking of building a model for the world cup to keep this going during the summer, but the lack of data may be an issue.




  • So here we go, first set of games.

    Everton vs Southampton - Everton Win

    Fulham vs Hull - Fulham Win

    Stoke vs Tottenham - Tottenham Win

    Swansea vs Aston Villa - Swansea Win

    West Brom - West Ham - West Brom Win

    Man Utd - Norwich - Man Utd Win

    Scores

    Everton vs Southampton - 1-0

    Fulham vs Hull - 1-0 Fulham have bagged some important points in their recent games against weaker teams. With their backs truly against the wall, I think they'll continue in this fashion. The game will be pretty tight but I think Fulham will sneak a win. I wouldn't be surprised if this is a 0-0

    Stoke vs Tottenham - 0-1 but given Tottenham's recent defensive displays, I wouldn't be surprised if it's 1-2

    Swansea vs Aston Villa - 1-0

    West Brom - West Ham - 2-1

    Man Utd - Norwich - 2-0 United only managed to win 1-0 against a struggling Norwich last time they met. I think the changing of management will lead to a boost in morale and performance but I think bottom line is, the majority of the United line up wouldn't make the line up of the top 4 teams, they're just not good enough. I don't expect a dominant performance, but I expect a moderate one.
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#2
Report Thread starter 7 years ago
#2
The championship is always a bit unpredictable but here we go with this

Burnley vs Ipswich - Burnley Win

Birmingham vs Leeds - Leeds Win

Bournemouth vs Forest - Forest Win

Charlton vs Blackburn - Blackburn Win

Derby - Watford - Derby Win

Doncaster vs Reading - Reading Win

Huddersfield vs Leicester - Leicester Win

Middlesbrough vs Barnsley - Middlesbrough Win

QPR vs Millwall - QPR Win

Sheffield Weds vs Bolton - Sheffield Weds Win

Wigan vs Blackpool - Wigan Win


Scores

Burnley vs Ipswich - 2 - 0

Birmingham vs Leeds - 1 - 2 - Leeds dominated Birmingham the last time they meet and pulled out a convincing 4-0 win. Their recent form has improved somewhat and I expect Leeds to win this. I can't fully discount Birmingham though, as they are fighting a relegation battle, and this can bring out the best in teams. Coupled with some injuries at leeds, I can see a 1-1 draw.

Bournemouth vs Forest - 1 - 2

Charlton vs Blackburn - 0 - 1

Derby - Watford - 1 - 0

Doncaster vs Reading - 0 - 1

Huddersfield vs Leicester - 1 - 3

Middlesbrough vs Barnsley - 1 - 0

QPR vs Millwall - 2 - 0

Sheffield Weds vs Bolton - 1 - 0

Wigan vs Blackpool - 2 - 0 - Wigan only need another 3 points to secure a crucial playoff spot. They were beaten last week by strong Burnley side, spurred on by the chance of automatic promotion to the premiership. Wigan will be returning to full strength tomorrow and a win looks likely in my opinion.



Model also predicted a 1 - 0 win against Yeovil in the Brighton vs Yeovil match. End result was 2-0 with the last goal scored in the 90th minute so I was pretty close!

I've also got models for Bundesliga, La Liga and Seria A. If anybody's interested in seeing these predictions, let me know! I've also got a model down to League one but I don't think anybody will be that interested in that?
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#3
Report Thread starter 7 years ago
#3
Results for the weekend.

Southampton 2 - 0 Everton (Everton 2 - Everton 0 )

Fulham 2 - 2 Hull - Although I did also expect a draw in this game, just not in the way it played out.

Stoke 0 - 1 Tottenham

Swansea 4 - 1 Aston Villa

West Brom 1 - 0 West Ham

Really disappointing result for Fulham. They were doing everything right until they conceded the first goal. The players will be kicking themselves over throwing away such a valuable 2-0 lead given their current situation.


Burnley 1 - 0 Ipswich

Birmingham 1 - 3 Leeds

Charlton 1 - 3 Blackburn

Derby 4 - 2 Watford

Doncaster 1 - 3 Reading

Huddersfield 0 - 2 Leicester

Middlesbrough 3 - 1 Barnsley

QPR 1 - 1 Millwall

Sheff Wed 1 - 3 Bolton

Wigan 0 - 2 Blackpool


Bournemouth 4 - 1 Nottm Forest



Overall out of 16 games, 10 correct results with the United Norwich game to follow.
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#4
Report Thread starter 7 years ago
#4
Almost forgot about Sundays games!

Sunderland - Cardiff Although this has already started, I would have thought that Sunderland would win this game given their recent form against big teams. Had the game at 1-0 but I can see its at 2-0 right now.


Liverpool - Chelsea - Liverpool win - 3-0 Chelsea are fielding a weaker team both because of injuries and their upcoming Champions League game. Liverpool are cruising, scoring the most goals out of all teams in the league over the past 4 games.


Crystal Palace - Man City - Crystal Palace win - Crystal Palace have won their last 5 games, both home and away, and have kept a clean sheet in four of those five games. I expect the game to be pretty nervy but Palace might steal a 1-0 win. City are also missing two important men but Yaya Toure might be back
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ReturnoftheG
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#5
Report 7 years ago
#5
(Original post by Football_Scores)
Almost forgot about Sundays games!

Sunderland - Cardiff Although this has already started, I would have thought that Sunderland would win this game given their recent form against big teams. Had the game at 1-0 but I can see its at 2-0 right now.


Liverpool - Chelsea - Liverpool win - 3-0 Chelsea are fielding a weaker team both because of injuries and their upcoming Champions League game. Liverpool are cruising, scoring the most goals out of all teams in the league over the past 4 games.


Crystal Palace - Man City - Crystal Palace win - Crystal Palace have won their last 5 games, both home and away, and have kept a clean sheet in four of those five games. I expect the game to be pretty nervy but Palace might steal a 1-0 win. City are also missing two important men but Yaya Toure might be back
Interesting, might PM you later about your model.

I have 3-1, 3-0 and 1-0 down myself.
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#6
Report Thread starter 7 years ago
#6
(Original post by ReturnoftheG)
Interesting, might PM you later about your model.

I have 3-1, 3-0 and 1-0 down myself.
Nice, you predicted the sunderland game better than me. I didn't expect Cardiff to do that badly lol, expected them to at least give it their best...... How did you do over the weekend?
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#7
Report Thread starter 7 years ago
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Guess the sunday games didn't treat me too well! can't get them all right after all haha.

Predictions for the championship games tomorrow is

Wigan to beat Birmingham
Watford to beat Charlton

Have got an accumulator on this one at 6/1 so fingers crossed!
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ReturnoftheG
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#8
Report 7 years ago
#8
(Original post by Football_Scores)
Nice, you predicted the sunderland game better than me. I didn't expect Cardiff to do that badly lol, expected them to at least give it their best...... How did you do over the weekend?
Not too badly,

I had 4-0 down in the Arsenal game, ended 3-0 so not far off. Got the Swansea win, got the 1-0 for West Brom, got the United 4-0. I had Fulham 2-1 down so Shane Long in the 87th minute ****ed that up. Also had an Everton win, surprising the manner of their loss but own goals, red cards and the like are always a possibility with a team like Everton, short on squad depth and having to force the issue at this stage of the season. I had Stoke 1-1 with Spurs, red card ****ed that up. Obviously Sunday's games were largely a disaster, but I am a Liverpool fan, so it can be excused?
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