Tory MP resigns for taking bribes- can UKIP win the seat? Watch

Poll: Can UKIP win the Newark MP seat
Yes they can win (6)
30%
No they can't win (14)
70%
Ace123
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Rumours are going around that Nigel Farage could stand in the seat. It is a safe Tory at and they got over 50% of the vote in 2010 but could UKIP beat them? Also what do you think Labour and Libdems will do both have no chance so will they bother to stand or will they help the Tories and not stand.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-27208966
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username1221160
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I am sure that if he campaigned on a anti-corruption campaign, he would win. After all Martin Bell won as an independent to replace the corrupt bride-taking Conservative MP Neil Hamilton(*).



(*) That is the same corrupt bribe-taking Neil Hamilton who is a senior figure in UKIP.
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Yi-Ge-Ningderen
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#3
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I will watch that by-election with great interest, it will act as a much greater poll than any ONS poll for what could be considered Tory seats.
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politics_
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#4
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Farage would be mad to stand
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crayz
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#5
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Well UKIP didn't do terribly well last time in that seat. They should go for it i don't think they will win though.
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Falcatas
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It would be nice if they did though, another slap to Cameron's face would be great.
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Ggmu!
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#7
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hope not
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Swanbow
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#8
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Doubt it. More interested in if there is a swing from Lib Dem to Labour.
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thesabbath
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#9
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I'd rather see them put up a local candidate.

The by-election won't take place until after the May 22nd EU election, which UKIP must win if they are to capitalise on their position, so it would be folly to risk capsizing the momentum by putting their leader up for a seat he has no connection with. In the event of failure to win (which is highly likely on past results in Newark) the headlines write themselves. On the other hand, a strong second or an unlikely victory from another UKIP name would solidify their progress and demonstrate further depth to the party thus giving the lie to the media smears that they are either a "one man band" or "full of racist extremists" depending on whether it is Monday or Tuesday.
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SHallowvale
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#10
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UKIP got 3.8% of the votes in that constituency in the last election:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Newark_...s_in_the_2010s

Why would Nigel Farage win that seat (or get a lot more votes) if he ran in by-election? Would everyone in the constituency suddenly become UKIP voters?

http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/2015guide/newark/

It doesn't appear that UKIP have much support in that area.
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MagicNMedicine
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#11
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Why doesn't Farage stand?

Rather than him seeing this as a political calculation why not stand and let the people decide?
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Falcatas
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#12
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There are thinking of putting Amjad Bashir up for the seat.

Just think of the headlines if he won it.

Racist Party's first MP is a Pakistani Muslim.
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euphful
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#13
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Well he's bottled it! Probably because he realised he's no chance. Bit embarrassing for him really when only last night he was saying Cameron would have to resign if he won the by-election...


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Rakas21
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#14
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(Original post by Ace123)
Rumours are going around that Nigel Farage could stand in the seat. It is a safe Tory at and they got over 50% of the vote in 2010 but could UKIP beat them? Also what do you think Labour and Libdems will do both have no chance so will they bother to stand or will they help the Tories and not stand.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-27208966
'No'.

Given that the Tories sit on 53% and Ukip have not yet breached 30% it would for a start require record gains for Ukip (realistically 35% minimum) and also the biggest Tory by-election loss to date this parliament (their average by-election loss this parliament is 12% which puts them at 41%).

Further, Ukip in the local elections last year only got 17% which is actually below their national average for last years council elections (the Tories have held control of the council since 2007) suggesting that the Tories are too strong here for Ukip to take them down.

My personal expectation is that the Tories will win with 35%-40% of the vote while both Ukip and Labour achieve 20-25%, the Lib Dems will probably lose their deposit (they should focus on taking council seats there and just abandon the by-election).

I'm so confident the Tories will hold it that i'll have £10 on it later today.
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thesabbath
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(Original post by euphful)
Well he's bottled it! Probably because he realised he's no chance. Bit embarrassing for him really when only last night he was saying Cameron would have to resign if he won the by-election...
Have you noticed that the only people who claim that he's "scared" or has "bottled it" are the far left and their media colleagues? Now why would they be doing this?
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Rakas21
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(Original post by euphful)
Well he's bottled it! Probably because he realised he's no chance. Bit embarrassing for him really when only last night he was saying Cameron would have to resign if he won the by-election...

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Why would Cameron possibly need to reign when it's not even a sitting MP that Farage would have faced.

The only single moment where i thought that Cameron should have resigned was when he failed to get 50% of his MP's to vote for gay marriage, that was truly weak leadership (further highlighted by the number of smaller rebellions he allows to happen).
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Rakas21
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(Original post by thesabbath)
Have you noticed that the only people who claim that he's "scared" or has "bottled it" are the far left and their media colleagues? Now why would they be doing this?
Being realistic he probably did bottle it given the embarrassment that would be caused by losing however it's his fault for not straight away saying 'no, i don't think Newark is prime Ukip ground however we will stand a candidate and campaign hard'.
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CryptoidAlien
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#18
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Why is this country trying to oppress UKIP so much?
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thesabbath
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#19
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(Original post by Rakas21)
Why would Cameron possibly need to reign when it's not even a sitting MP that Farage would have faced.

The only single moment where i thought that Cameron should have resigned was when he failed to get 50% of his MP's to vote for gay marriage, that was truly weak leadership (further highlighted by the number of smaller rebellions he allows to happen).
Like when he three-line whipped his MPs to vote against holding an EU referendum in 2011 (and 79 of them rebelled). Good old Cast Iron Dave. Of course he wants to give us that referendum doesn't he :rolleyes:
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thesabbath
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(Original post by Rakas21)
Being realistic he probably did bottle it given the embarrassment that would be caused by losing however it's his fault for not straight away saying 'no, i don't think Newark is prime Ukip ground however we will stand a candidate and campaign hard'.
Last February the media classes were convinced that UKIP were coming 4th in Eastleigh, or at best scraping third place. But the day it was announced they had beaten the Conservatives into second and nearly claimed the seat, the message changed. It was suddenly all "Farage bottled it", "Nigel would have won, but he was too scared to stand". There was never any likelihood he would stand in Newark, it's just pathetic to claim this is for reasons of cowardice. It would have been tactically imbecilic to stand (not to mention that he has no links with the area).
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