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    Hi,

    Just thought it would be interesting to have this conversation. Having being following the news over the past few years, there are a few events that have a slightly unnerving similarity to pre-WW2 occurrences. Examples are: A large scale economic crisis, swings to the right in parties and attitudes across Europe (UKIP, Golden Dawn etc.), territorial aggression (Russia into Crimea) which is met by a diplomatic response akin to appeasement.

    I'm a third year science student so I'm no expert on history, but these kinds of happenings do bring about a certain sense of deja vu. Throw into the mix a shift in world powers as China rockets past the USA in economic growth. Add in the 'rogue' states armed with nuclear weapons and possessing a somewhat alien ideology to our own and a person could be forgiven for being concerned as to where we are heading.

    I personally do not believe an outright war will take place as happened during the world wars. The world's economies are too closely interwoven and as everyone knows, money IS power. Also, nuclear weapons make the stakes way to high for outright aggression between equal strength adversaries to be seriously considered.

    Anyway, those are my thoughts, what are yours?

    TODO x
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    The United States military - the most powerful in the history of the world - has kept the world relatively safe for the past 69 years.

    However, the US is going bankrupt, and when the Pax Americana ends - as it surely will - **** is going to hit the fan. There will be mass violence / revolution / civil war in America. Russian aggression in Europe will no longer be checked. The Middle East is itching for a fight with Israel.

    The stupid one child policy in China means they have tens of millions of young men who will never be able to find a Chinese wife and start a family. With no hope to satisfy their primary purpose in life, these men are going to be dangerous. The usual way the elites get rid of low status men is through warfare.

    The drums of war are starting to beat. :borat:
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    (Original post by PresidentObama)
    The United States military - the most powerful in the history of the world - has kept the world relatively safe for the past 69 years.

    However, the US is going bankrupt, and when the Pax Americana ends - as it surely will - **** is going to hit the fan. There will be mass violence / revolution / civil war in America. Russian aggression in Europe will no longer be checked. The Middle East is itching for a fight with Israel.

    The stupid one child policy in China means they have tens of millions of young men who will never be able to find a Chinese wife and start a family. With no hope to satisfy their primary purpose in life, these men are going to be dangerous. The usual way the elites get rid of low status men is through warfare.

    The drums of war are starting to beat. :borat:
    You are funny. Very.
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    (Original post by Algorithm69)
    As a guy with a history degree, the modern world has changed too much to draw such parallels and assume a similar outcome.
    A war is coming, Ned. I don't know who we will be fighting. I don't know when. But it is coming.



    Jokes aside, do you think there will be a WWIII within our lifetimes?
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    (Original post by todo19)
    Hi,

    Just thought it would be interesting to have this conversation. Having being following the news over the past few years, there are a few events that have a slightly unnerving similarity to pre-WW2 occurrences. Examples are: A large scale economic crisis, swings to the right in parties and attitudes across Europe (UKIP, Golden Dawn etc.), territorial aggression (Russia into Crimea) which is met by a diplomatic response akin to appeasement.

    I'm a third year science student so I'm no expert on history, but these kinds of happenings do bring about a certain sense of deja vu. Throw into the mix a shift in world powers as China rockets past the USA in economic growth. Add in the 'rogue' states armed with nuclear weapons and possessing a somewhat alien ideology to our own and a person could be forgiven for being concerned as to where we are heading.

    I personally do not believe an outright war will take place as happened during the world wars. The world's economies are too closely interwoven and as everyone knows, money IS power. Also, nuclear weapons make the stakes way to high for outright aggression between equal strength adversaries to be seriously considered.

    Anyway, those are my thoughts, what are yours?

    TODO x
    I think from the looks of things a full scale Cold War is imminent I doubt there would be major fighting as you mentioned but spying, occasional stand offs and stuff will happen and the war could well take place on the internet with hacking and stealing information.There is no way either the Russian Government or EU and USA are going to back down on the Crimea/Ukraine issue from what I've seen so tensions will just escalate.
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    (Original post by Juichiro)
    You are funny. Very.
    Not that funny actually because basic biology suggests this is the case and humans like to deny it but our primary objective is to survive so we can pass on our genes to our offspring.
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    It's an interesting observation to make, but for all that the cliché is that history repeats itself, things rarely work out in the same manner as previously.

    For a start, none of the far right parties on the political scene in Europe are advocating for aggressive expansion and acquisition of land (as far as I am aware) - they're more concerned about internal issues, chiefly the economy and immigration. Russia is more territorially aggressive, but they can only be so up to a point. Europe and the US are united in their condemnation, and Russia stand no chance against the combined might of NATO should they go too far. In fact, Russia has no real allies it can count on if push comes to shove - China certainly would not support them in a military conflict.

    (Original post by Algorithm69)
    As a guy with a history degree, the modern world has changed too much to draw such parallels and assume a similar outcome.
    Indeed.
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    (Original post by Dalek1099)
    Not that funny actually because basic biology suggests this is the case and humans like to deny it but our primary objective is to survive so we can pass on our genes to our offspring.
    If your basic objective is to survive passing on genes will change nothing. :rolleyes: Now if you say that your objective is for your genetic information to have a younger host, then yes, it makes sense to pass on your genes. But your "basic biology" must be wrong, while we all love sex and reproduction is not as frequent you would expect, particular in developed countries. Hence the falling birth rate crisis: people are not having enough babies.
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    (Original post by Juichiro)
    If your basic objective is to survive passing on genes will change nothing. :rolleyes: Now if you say that your objective is for your genetic information to have a younger host, then yes, it makes sense to pass on your genes. But your "basic biology" must be wrong, while we all love sex and reproduction is not as frequent you would expect, particular in developed countries. Hence the falling birth rate crisis: people are not having enough babies.
    The reason for falling birth rates is largely due to increased contraception usage, which allows the subconscious to think that you are trying to reproduce so therefore satisfying the primary need of reproduction.Remove contraception and then birth rates would boom.
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    I don't think pre-Second World War can be comparable. Germany had just lost a war, had it's economy decimated and territories gives away to allied European countries, which did encourage the need for Germany to 'annex' areas outside, such as historical Holy Roman Empire territories.

    For instance, in the UK, we've not lost a war or had land adjacent to us taken away from us. Our economy is in growth. And yet the right wing are in the top two places on our party list.

    I think hindsight is also in favour. If our politics even remotely resembled the Nazi party they'd be straight out. The holocaust wont be repeated. The holocaust and the wars happening contributed to us looking at ourselves and started taking human rights seriously and war crimes seriously.
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    There are certainly parallels between the world in the 1930s and the world now; in both eras, the world was incredibly well interconnected, interdependent and globalised, and there was a mass international movement of labour. In both eras the world was dealing with a massive, global financial crisis, and falling, at best stagnant, living standards, which in the 1930s contributed to the rise of the Nazi party in Germany, and is currently resulting in widespread disillusionment with traditional parties. In both eras the dominant world power was reluctant to behave as such, and to use its dominance to maintain world order. Another key parallel is that there are significant disagreements over land, resulting in considerable tension (think about China and Japan's claims to a small group of island, and China's claim to areas of the South China sea that have alienated Vietnam, Indonesia and the Phillipines), or even to land grabs (Russia/Ukraine).

    However, there are also considerable differences; Europe is much more united than it ever has been, and as others have mentioned, we have learnt from history so much that it is unlikely we will let it repeat itself. No countries are still recovering from a war, and whilst the world was incredibly interconnected in the 1930s in terms of trade and emmigration/immigration, it was not as financially interconnected as now, nor as socially and culturally similar (particularly Europe). I very much doubt there will ever be another European war.

    If there is another major conflict, it will probably take place in South east Asia.
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    (Original post by Dalek1099)
    The reason for falling birth rates is largely due to increased contraception usage, which allows the subconscious to think that you are trying to reproduce so therefore satisfying the primary need of reproduction.Remove contraception and then birth rates would boom.
    That is nonsense. People use condoms because they want to engage in non-reproductive sex. That is a fact. The whole subconscious thing is nonsense. Obviously if you remove contraceptions people will have no choice if they want to have sex. Either that, or the amount of non-vaginal penetration will rise.
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    (Original post by todo19)
    Hi,

    Just thought it would be interesting to have this conversation. Having being following the news over the past few years, there are a few events that have a slightly unnerving similarity to pre-WW2 occurrences. Examples are: A large scale economic crisis, swings to the right in parties and attitudes across Europe (UKIP, Golden Dawn etc.), territorial aggression (Russia into Crimea) which is met by a diplomatic response akin to appeasement.

    I'm a third year science student so I'm no expert on history, but these kinds of happenings do bring about a certain sense of deja vu. Throw into the mix a shift in world powers as China rockets past the USA in economic growth. Add in the 'rogue' states armed with nuclear weapons and possessing a somewhat alien ideology to our own and a person could be forgiven for being concerned as to where we are heading.

    I personally do not believe an outright war will take place as happened during the world wars. The world's economies are too closely interwoven and as everyone knows, money IS power. Also, nuclear weapons make the stakes way to high for outright aggression between equal strength adversaries to be seriously considered.

    Anyway, those are my thoughts, what are yours?

    TODO x
    Nukes didn't exist during the previous world wars. They above all else (alongside globalized economies) ensure that no world war as we know it will happen again.

    However there does seem to be a return to a more polarized world, proxy wars seem to be making a comeback like the Cold War.
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    There are parallels to WW2 in any vague sense, applicable to any time in history between states. There will never be another "total war" and if there is, it'd pretty much devastate too much. Also Russia would lose a tactical war alone against France or the U.K, there is no way on earth it would even think of starting a full-scale conflict with the EU, or NATO.
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    (Original post by AntisthenesDogger)
    There are parallels to WW2 in any vague sense, applicable to any time in history between states. There will never be another "total war" and if there is, it'd pretty much devastate too much. Also Russia would lose a tactical war alone against France or the U.K, there is no way on earth it would even think of starting a full-scale conflict with the EU, or NATO.
    NATO already pulverised Russia's ambitions to rule the world, and we all owe them for our freedom today (and perhaps also for the fact that the world is not a wasteland currently).

    If the US started to elect fascists, then I would worry.
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    It is true to say we are seeing many of the problems that occurred prior to World War II, with the rise of fascism and irredentism in the wake of economic crisis and widespread unemployment

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Irredentism

    I don't think people in the UK really understand just how dire things are in southern Europe, how desperate the employment situation is for young people. And in 1913, David Starr Jordan (the vice-chancellor of Stanford) wrote that a general war would be impossible because the world was far too economically interconnected, which is the argument many people make today about why war would be impossible.

    Having said that, I do believe that the degree of economic interdependence makes war unlikely. Furthermore, nuclear weapons act as a genuine deterrent against a general conflagration; politicians realise just how dangerous it would be to go to war. That's why you haven't seen any war between great powers since 1945, imho.
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    (Original post by PresidentObama)
    However, the US is going bankrupt, and when the Pax Americana ends - as it surely will - **** is going to hit the fan.
    The United States is not going bankrupt, if anything it is in a far better position than China; the latter has a demographic timebomb with its aging population, whereas immigration to the United States and UK has kept their populations young and fit.

    The Pax Americana has kept the world safe for trade and commerce, the US Navy has policed the high seas in the same way the Royal Navy did in the 19th century. We've merely seen a handing off of the baton from the British Empire to the United States + Anglosphere.

    American gross debt was much higher in the 1940s than it is now, so the idea that the US will go bankrupt simply does not pass muster.
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    I am sure ever since I have been on the internet, I have seen posts predicting World War III.

    I remember the frenzy when the Kosovo conflict started in 1999. Parallels being drawn with Hitler, an ethnic cleansing programme taking place on our continent. A drunk Boris Yeltsin telling the West "don't push your luck, this will start third world war".

    Then on the day of September 11th, people were talking of imminent World War III within weeks. The presumed scenario was, US invades the Middle East in revenge, Middle East strikes Israel, Israel gets dragged in to the war, Russia and China fear their oil interests are under threat and strike US.

    Then when the financial crisis hit we were told that the Nazis were sweeping across Europe, the far right was one crisis away from power, people were going to spontaneously rise up in favour of a Nazi revolution to preserve their cultural identity and fight against gays, Islam, climate change and so on.

    More recently on TSR its been that feminism is pushing society to the brink of war.

    So I have learned to take these predictions with a pinch of salt...

    Also didn't the ancient Mexicans predict that the world was going to end about now or has that already passed.
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    There's a difference between wanting topple the EU and wanting to start a war.
    There was no world war when the USSR broke up, and it's ultimately the same principle.

    But it's expected for some people to run around in circles when change happens/might happen.
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    (Original post by MagicNMedicine)
    I remember the frenzy when the Kosovo conflict started in 1999. Parallels being drawn with Hitler, an ethnic cleansing programme taking place on our continent.
    The kind of ship that went down in the Balkans was pretty messed up stuff, though. No chance of World War, but nevertheless, it shows the outrageous political stability that we enjoy here. Over there, people were neighbours one day and killing each other the next.
 
 
 
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