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# Does anyone want to know how to mathematically beat a casino?

No spam links, im a regular poster on the betting thread and i know my stuff

So is anyone here interested in making money from, lets say william hill casino

Im not talking about a guaranteed way to win, but a long term edge

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kk impress mekk impress me.
The odds are against you. That's the whole point.
Original post by rickfloss
No spam links, im a regular poster on the betting thread and i know my stuff

So is anyone here interested in making money from, lets say william hill casino

Im not talking about a guaranteed way to win, but a long term edge

Pray tell...
Yes. Play poker or any game with a clear mathematical basis to the gambling. Anything else is madness.
Ok, the only way you can make money is from Casino bonuses,

An example, william hill do a risk free £5 on saturday and sunday, You lose, you get your £5 back, you win, you keep your winnings

Moneysavingexpert matched betting forum has this info

Now, onto the juicy stuff...

If you deposit £100, to any casino, lets say totesport casino, they will offer you a £100 bonus( all terms available on the site, tote is a part of betfred)

You need to wager your £200 *20 times,

But It says that blackjack counts for 20% of wagering while slots count for 100% of wagering, but we do not want to play slots as thy have a high house edge and high variance( ie you need to do tens of thousands of spins to get anywhere near the return to player percentange of your slot)

so, £200*20*5=£20,000 worth of wagering, now considering that the house edge of this websites blackjack is 0.47% as the theoretical return to player is 99.53%. so you multiply £20,000 by 0.0047( percentage converted to decimals)=£94 loss, therefore after your wager you have made a total profit of £6( assuming you follow correct basic strategy, and assuming that your variance is average, which it probably wont be after 1 bonus, but after 100 bonuses it will converge towards the mean)

May not seem like a lot, but here comes the brilliant part

if, before you wager on blackjack, you bet it on red on roulette, or even better, on 12 numbers on rouletter(12/37) chance, You negate the wagering requirement one time, or 2 times if you do 12 numbers

For example, for 12 numbers, You stick your £200 on one column, and lose 2 times , but win one time. You are down £200( as you remember you got a £100 bonus each time-so you lose £400, but are down only £200 real money). You also have to minus the house edge of your £200 real money, which is 300( you do three tries, £100 each try)*0.027=£8.10 or well round it up to £10,

So you lose your real £100 2 times( but lose £200*2 as £100 is bonus money each time), and on your third time you win £600. So you are Up £600-£300(your total deposits-£5 or £295. But you still need to wager £20,000, so you do this , -£94 and you will end up with £200 profit/3( as you did 3 tries). and so £66 profit per go. ( this assumes that your variace was average, you can gain more profit or lose more profit, but you have a long term edge against the casino)

Thank you.
Original post by rickfloss
Ok, the only way you can make money is from Casino bonuses,

An example, william hill do a risk free £5 on saturday and sunday, You lose, you get your £5 back, you win, you keep your winnings

Moneysavingexpert matched betting forum has this info

Now, onto the juicy stuff...

If you deposit £100, to any casino, lets say totesport casino, they will offer you a £100 bonus( all terms available on the site, tote is a part of betfred)

You need to wager your £200 *20 times,

But It says that blackjack counts for 20% of wagering while slots count for 100% of wagering, but we do not want to play slots as thy have a high house edge and high variance( ie you need to do tens of thousands of spins to get anywhere near the return to player percentange of your slot)

so, £200*20*5=£20,000 worth of wagering, now considering that the house edge of this websites blackjack is 0.47% as the theoretical return to player is 99.53%. so you multiply £20,000 by 0.0047( percentage converted to decimals)=£94 loss, therefore after your wager you have made a total profit of £6( assuming you follow correct basic strategy, and assuming that your variance is average, which it probably wont be after 1 bonus, but after 100 bonuses it will converge towards the mean)

May not seem like a lot, but here comes the brilliant part

if, before you wager on blackjack, you bet it on red on roulette, or even better, on 12 numbers on rouletter(12/37) chance, You negate the wagering requirement one time, or 2 times if you do 12 numbers

For example, for 12 numbers, You stick your £200 on one column, and lose 2 times , but win one time. You are down £200( as you remember you got a £100 bonus each time-so you lose £400, but are down only £200 real money). You also have to minus the house edge of your £200 real money, which is 300( you do three tries, £100 each try)*0.027=£8.10 or well round it up to £10,

So you lose your real £100 2 times( but lose £200*2 as £100 is bonus money each time), and on your third time you win £600. So you are Up £600-£300(your total deposits-£5 or £295. But you still need to wager £20,000, so you do this , -£94 and you will end up with £200 profit/3( as you did 3 tries). and so £66 profit per go. ( this assumes that your variace was average, you can gain more profit or lose more profit, but you have a long term edge against the casino)

Thank you.

so I was interested in what you had to say and read your post, but I must ask isn't this just gambling? Or have I missed something?
Yeah there is, I've done it. But forget my millions, I'm gonna sit here on TSR.
I thought the title was does anyone want to know how to mathemactically beat a casio calcuator so i was going to say with your brain lol.

Posted from TSR Mobile
I somewhat doubt that your approach will be tenable, OP. If by "william hill casino", you're referring to the machines, any strategy that you come up with is almost certainly doomed to fail.
What ive written above is priviliged information, there are very few ways in the world/internet to make £50,000-£100,000 in 3-5 years tax free . It would be wise to study it and ask questions

the reason why im saying this, well mainly its due to a few idiot casinos banning me from promotions. An example is totesport above, after you do whats above, they will no longer offer you promotions, but its a good place to start.

If anyone wants a discussion on the matematics, im more than wiling to help

at its core its gambling, but unlike poker, where you could be the fish and be in a negative -ev position, here you know how much you will expect in terms of expected value.
Original post by Farhan.Hanif93
I somewhat doubt that your approach will be tenable, OP. If by "william hill casino", you're referring to the machines, any strategy that you come up with is almost certainly doomed to fail.

Firstly, regarding the machines

Yes , in certain cases the machines are beatable, infact im so confident i would be willing to put up £10,000 if you put up £1,000 (ie if your right you get my £10,000). In certain conditions the machines in the bookies are beatable, but only specific games, your average roulette games is unbeatble as you are being shorted odds. We can get a independant expert to test my mathematics out on a game of my choice on the machines.

Ie, being payed 35:1 on a 36:1 shot.

Regarding the above, thats online casinos, even a forum called beatingbonuses is dedicated to it.

Ive personally made £50,000+ in 3 years while at uni, i know many students that have also done so.
Yes marginally +EV although "average" variance will bust the £600 a lot. I mean who would bet 20,000 £1 hands of blackjack... You're argument (to get from £6 to c.£66 profit) relies on increasing the variance of the bonus money by placing a large wager on roulette. Could you not just place a £200 hand of blackjack? (smaller house edge than roulette?) And if you extrapolate this idea would it not then be better EV-wise to continue betting big to utilise the "value" of the bonus and hoping to run good with it. If you ran the maths similar to how you did you're if 1/3 roulette spins comes in, then reverse martingaling (doubling bets as you win instead of lose) would hit the turnover requirement with the largest variance possible which would preserve as much of the EV? So in reality you'd end up going broke c.98-99/100 times but would end up with c.£10k the rest of the time and this would give you the maximum mathematical edge. But then the 'long run' to realise this profit would require thousands of iterations of this bonus scheme (and £££'s). In reality the variance will send most people to zero and this is unrealistic for such a small EV edge, which is why lots of online casinos happily offer such promotions. Stick to poker.
(edited 9 years ago)
Original post by scaredjoe
so I was interested in what you had to say and read your post, but I must ask isn't this just gambling? Or have I missed something?

yes, but you are gambling with a player edge, you are expecting £60 per your £100 deposit in profit(ie you will end up with £160 on average- so after 100 bonuses you would have gained £10,000+£60*100=£16,000 or 6000 profit, assuming you have the bankroll to weather the variance)
Original post by rickfloss
yes, but you are gambling with a player edge, you are expecting £60 per your £100 deposit in profit(ie you will end up with £160 on average- so after 100 bonuses you would have gained £10,000+£60*100=£16,000 or 6000 profit, assuming you have the bankroll to weather the variance)

ok, could you post a website link or something (or PM me) where I can find some more info, and read into this method myself?

Also, why are you giving this information out?

I have a fair bit of money just sitting there in a current account, I need to find something to do with it lol
(edited 9 years ago)
Original post by mouthystudent001
Yes marginally +EV although "average" variance will bust the £600 a lot. I mean who would bet 20,000 £1 hands of blackjack... You're argument (to get from £6 to c.£66 profit) relies on increasing the variance of the bonus money by placing a large wager on roulette. Could you not just place a £200 hand of blackjack? (smaller house edge than roulette?) And if you extrapolate this idea would it not then be better EV-wise to continue betting big to utilise the "value" of the bonus and hoping to run good with it. If you ran the maths similar to how you did you're if 1/3 roulette spins comes in, then reverse martingaling (doubling bets as you win instead of lose) would hit the turnover requirement with the largest variance possible which would preserve as much of it as EV? So in reality you'd end up going broke c.98-99/100 times but would end up with c.£10k the rest of the time and this would give you the maximum mathematical edge. But then the 'long run' to realise this profit would require thousands of iterations of this bonus scheme (and £££'s). In reality the variance will send most people to zero and this unrealistic for such a small EV edge, which is why lots of online casinos happily offer such promotions. Stick to poker.

What you forget is, that if you bust out 11 times, and win once( if your covering 3 numbers). You will now have £2400 in your account. Now, that seems much more viable to do 10000, £2 hands with, ( you can place multiple bets of £2 on the same table)- i did £6 in 3*£2 bets.

it would be worthwhile even with £1200 if you covered 6 numbers.

£1200-£600(your initial deposit+ 5 other times you lost)-94-20(wagering the £600 on roulette)=£486, divide this number by 6, and your profit is £80. But you only spend one time wagering out of 6, so your profit per hour is actually 486/12=£40 an hour for clicking on your computer

There is a trade off between bankroll/variance/ casino trust, ie a casino is more likely to pay you on a £500 withdrawal using their bonus than a £5,000 withdrawal
(edited 9 years ago)
Original post by scaredjoe
ok, could you post a website link or something (or PM me) where I can find some more info, and read into this method myself?

Also, why are you giving this information out?

I have a fair bit of money just sitting there in a current account, I need to find something to do with it lol

well, its all freely available on google, lol, but comprehending it is like reading a 60's o level textbook, and then putting money on it, 99% of people wont do it.

Never gamble if your not certain regarding the mathematics and economics( will you get paid out, do the terms and conditions of the promotions allow you to do so)

Another example

A few weeks ago, williiam hill offered 30% cashback on roulette up to £300, so if you lost £1000, you would get £300 cashback( fully withdrawable real cash )

Now you tell me how you would fully utilise this offer, if you had a theoretically large bankroll, lets say £50,000?
Original post by rickfloss
well, its all freely available on google, lol, but comprehending it is like reading a 60's o level textbook, and then putting money on it, 99% of people wont do it.

Never gamble if your not certain regarding the mathematics and economics( will you get paid out, do the terms and conditions of the promotions allow you to do so)

Another example

A few weeks ago, williiam hill offered 30% cashback on roulette up to £300, so if you lost £1000, you would get £300 cashback( fully withdrawable real cash )

Now you tell me how you would fully utilise this offer, if you had a theoretically large bankroll, lets say £50,000?

ok will look into it.

umm idk man rn re: that wh offer. would you mine explaining?
Original post by mouthystudent001
Yes marginally +EV although "average" variance will bust the £600 a lot. I mean who would bet 20,000 £1 hands of blackjack... You're argument (to get from £6 to c.£66 profit) relies on increasing the variance of the bonus money by placing a large wager on roulette. Could you not just place a £200 hand of blackjack? (smaller house edge than roulette?) And if you extrapolate this idea would it not then be better EV-wise to continue betting big to utilise the "value" of the bonus and hoping to run good with it. If you ran the maths similar to how you did you're if 1/3 roulette spins comes in, then reverse martingaling (doubling bets as you win instead of lose) would hit the turnover requirement with the largest variance possible which would preserve as much of the EV? So in reality you'd end up going broke c.98-99/100 times but would end up with c.£10k the rest of the time and this would give you the maximum mathematical edge. But then the 'long run' to realise this profit would require thousands of iterations of this bonus scheme (and £££'s). In reality the variance will send most people to zero and this is unrealistic for such a small EV edge, which is why lots of online casinos happily offer such promotions. Stick to poker.

Thats the most retarded thing to do, poker doesnt offer a guaranteed player edge, heck, how do you know if you even have an edge and that your not the fish.

As above, 30% on roulette cashback was offered a few weeks ago by william hill, up to £300.( thats just one casino)
Original post by rickfloss
What you forget is, that if you bust out 11 times, and win once( if your covering 3 numbers). You will now have £2400 in your account. Now, that seems much more viable to do 10000, £2 hands with, ( you can place multiple bets of £2 on the same table)- i did £6 in 3*£2 bets.

it would be worthwhile even with £1200 if you covered 6 numbers.

£1200-£600(your initial deposit+ 5 other times you lost)-94-20(wagering the £600 on roulette)=£486, divide this number by 6, and your profit is £80. But you only spend one time wagering out of 6, so your profit per hour is actually 486/12=£40 an hour for clicking on your computer

There is a trade off between bankroll/variance/ casino trust, ie a casino is more likely to pay you on a £500 withdrawal using their bonus than a £5,000 withdrawal

Yes and if you are relying on your 1/12 shot backing 3 numbers as described above.. You could easily miss 20+ in a row off the bat. That's £2k+ down the drain and a large chunk of the reputable online casinos bonuses used. You would need serious bankroll and friends/siblings etc to make this anything other than a huge gamble imo. And as you try to decrease variance your EV will go down, and required hours up. Have you ever encountered a casino not paying out? Are there t&cs to prevent you trying to exploit their bonuses for EV?