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Will Nigel Farage become an MP in 2015? Watch

  • View Poll Results: Will Nigel Farage become UKIP's first MP in 2015?
    Yes
    31
    65.96%
    No
    16
    34.04%

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    Nigel Farage still hasn't announced that he's going to run, the bookies have UKIP favourite to win South Thanet.

    According to this data, it looks like the best seat for Farage to stand in. No students, no young families.

    So, hedge your bets now...will UKIP have their first member of parliament in 2015?
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    Nope.
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    Hasn't a former UKIP leader going to stand as the Tory candidate there next year? If so then his eurosceptic credentials are strong and it would be tough for Farage to compare.
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      No. The Tories will put up a strong candidate here just to make sure he doesn't get in. They know full well if Farage fails to get elected it will be a huge blow to UKIP.
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      (Original post by Numberwang)
      Nigel Farage still hasn't announced that he's going to run, the bookies have UKIP favourite to win South Thanet.

      According to this data, it looks like the best seat for Farage to stand in. No students, no young families.

      So, hedge your bets now...will UKIP have their first member of parliament in 2015?
      I'm going to say No although I think it will be close between the Tories, Labour and Ukip.

      Tories in 2010 got 48%, average loss in by-elections is 12% this parliament (the general election won't be as bad) which gives a floor of 35% for the Tories.

      Ukip have as yet failed to breach 28%. Now I do think there will be a Farage bonus but i'm not sure how much bigger it will be given that voters are more inclined to punish the Tories in by-elections than a general election so I think Farage has ceiling of 35%.

      Labour got 31% in 2010 and will definitely gain but probably not much, especially if Ukip steals some voters. As such I think 40% is their ceiling.

      In conclusion, I think that it will be extremely close between the Tories and Labour (35-40%) but that Ukip will probably be a couple of percent off in a record third (30-35%).
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      Yes, I expect UKIP to get at least half a dozen MPs, including Farage.
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      (Original post by thesabbath)
      Yes, I expect UKIP to get at least half a dozen MPs, including Farage.
      Do you think Farage will suvive election day to take up his seat? Or do you think there will be the earliest by-election in history...?
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      (Original post by Quady)
      Do you think Farage will suvive election day to take up his seat? Or do you think there will be the earliest by-election in history...?
      Are you suggesting he is going to be assassinated?
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      (Original post by thesabbath)
      Are you suggesting he is going to be assassinated?
      This general election they might be more successful than last time yeah.
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      Thanet is one of the closest things to a UKIP stronghold. I have no doubt he will win, as will many others.
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      (Original post by Joeman560)
      Thanet is one of the closest things to a UKIP stronghold. I have no doubt he will win, as will many others.
      You're saying UKIP are gonna get more than one MP in parliament? Bold claim :eek:
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      Maybe, but UKIP has no chance of getting more than a handful of MP's and will have no influence on the government.
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      I think the Tories will put up a strong candidate just to take on Farage wherever he stands, think theyll win somewhere though.

      If you look at Breitbart they're on for a 400 strong majority.
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      (Original post by thesabbath)
      Yes, I expect UKIP to get at least half a dozen MPs, including Farage.
      Half a dozen? If you look at the Torygraph comments youll find Nigel should be measuring up the curtains for No. 10.
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      (Original post by Le Nombre)
      I think the Tories will put up a strong candidate just to take on Farage wherever he stands, think theyll win somewhere though.

      If you look at Breitbart they're on for a 400 strong majority.
      Breitbart?
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      I reckon UKIP will get a couple of MPs, not sure if farage will be one of them.
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      (Original post by Rakas21)
      Breitbart?
      New home of James Delingpole, essentially house newspaper to UKIP.

      http://www.breitbart.com/breitbart-london
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      I'm not sure, but it is possible. If he chooses the right constituency and throws absolutely everything he and UKIP can at his campaign. UKIP have had some problematic members but Farage would be a strong candidate so might get extra support.

      Under first past the post, UKIP need geographically concentrated support, so they'll really need to focus as much as they can on a handful of seats for the best chance of success under our voting system.

      I'm watching it with interest. A lot could happen between now and May 2015.
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      (Original post by Le Nombre)
      New home of James Delingpole, essentially house newspaper to UKIP.

      http://www.breitbart.com/breitbart-london
      Ah. You should check out the Uk democracy forum. Apparently all Tories are communists.
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      (Original post by james22)
      Maybe, but UKIP has no chance of getting more than a handful of MP's and will have no influence on the government.
      A handful of MPs could potentially have some real sway over the government. Think back to the days of the grand coalition of the Left being mooted in 2010 (Labour, Lib Dems, SNP + Plaid). The Tories with their Unionist allies in Northern Ireland, the "Liberal" (in its traditional sense) part of the Lib Dems, and a handful of UKIP MPs could be enough to pass legislation on issues like Europe, Immigration, the economy etc.

      In 2010, the Tories were 19 seats short of an absolute majority. Throw in the 8 of the DUP in exchange for extra cash for N. Ireland, take out the 5 from Sinn Fein who would never turn up to vote against the Gov't anyway, and it's unbelievably tight with a few Tory gains. With even just a 'handful' of seats, UKIP could make a difference.

      Especially considering the enormously unbalanced nature of the current Coalition in relation to the proportion of seats each party won.
     
     
     
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