Hurricane Iselle and Tropical Storm Julio - Headed for Hawaii

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Rakas21
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#1
Report Thread starter 8 years ago
#1
As there's no science section in current affairs i thought i'd trial this thread here. If it proves popular then i'll create it for other major weather events. If not then at least i tried.

Hurricane Iselle
Hurricane Iselle has defied model runs and become a major category 4 annular hurricane with sustained winds of 140mph (strong enough to rip roofs off). It has a near perfect structure and is headed near direct west for the big Island of Hawaii. The NHC believe that this will be a little below hurricane strength should it hit but should Iselle intensify further then it could well hit at hurricane strength. This would be the first time a hurricane has hit the island from a vector more easterly than SSE.

The images below show its forecast track and current satellite image (near perfect)..

Tropical Storm Julio
Incredibly Tropical Storm Julio is forecast to be on a near exact replica path of Iselle and also forecast to be around the vicinity of Hawaii (possibly hit). Julio is forecast to only reach strong category 1 status (it may end up over cooler waters upwelled by Iselle) however Iselle was not forecast to reach this strength either. A second Hawaii hit in succession would be devastating in terms of flooding even if not a strong hit and also a record.

The images below show its forecast track and current satellite image..

Iselle..

Image

Image

Image

Julio..

Image

Image

Image

.........

Discuss.
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Motorbiker
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#2
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#2
(Original post by Rakas21)
As there's no science section in current affairs i thought i'd trial this thread here. If it proves popular then i'll create it for other major weather events. If not then at least i tried.

Hurricane Iselle
Hurricane Iselle has defied model runs and become a major category 4 annular hurricane with sustained winds of 140mph (strong enough to rip roofs off). It has a near perfect structure and is headed near direct west for the big Island of Hawaii. The NHC believe that this will be a little below hurricane strength should it hit but should Iselle intensify further then it could well hit at hurricane strength. This would be the first time a hurricane has hit the island from a vector more easterly than SSE.

The images below show its forecast track and current satellite image (near perfect)..

Tropical Storm Julio
Incredibly Tropical Storm Julio is forecast to be on a near exact replica path of Iselle and also forecast to be around the vicinity of Hawaii (possibly hit). Julio is forecast to only reach strong category 1 status (it may end up over cooler waters upwelled by Iselle) however Iselle was not forecast to reach this strength either. A second Hawaii hit in succession would be devastating in terms of flooding even if not a strong hit and also a record.

The images below show its forecast track and current satellite image..

Iselle..

Image

Image

Image

Julio..

Image

Image

Image

.........

Discuss.
What type of damage can we expect if wind speeds will be down to 35mph by the time it hits Hawaii?
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Rakas21
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#3
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(Original post by Motorbiker)
What type of damage can we expect if wind speeds will be down to 35mph by the time it hits Hawaii?
Iselle will have sustained winds of 45-60mph as currently forecast with gusts in excess of 65-80mph so imagine a big storm here and then bear in mind that their houses are not made from brick.

I suspect though that the storm surges, power outages and flooding will be more of a concern given the double hit.
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Rakas21
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#4
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Iselle has weakened to 90mph sustained winds over the past 48 hours but at a slower rate than expected.

As a result of the above Hawaii for the first time in 22 years is under a hurricane warnin , Iselle is now forecast to hit the main Island at hurricane strength with gusts as high as 100mph. Rainfall will as feared produce flash floods and mudslides with up to 12 inches of rainfall.

Julio is now a hurricane but will pass north of the islands. Its size though will ensure that even this glancing blow produces another significant rain event.
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