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What would an EU referendum campaign be like? watch

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    (Original post by DErasmus)
    You should keep up with recent developments: http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk...n-9707816.html

    If Carswell stays in UKIP it's very likely they'll have at least one MP.
    Okay, likely that you'll have one MP then.
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    (Original post by Smack)
    Okay, likely that you'll have one MP then.
    I'm voting for the Conservatives so no thank you. Your arrogance is precisely why so many people are voting UKIP in the first place.
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    (Original post by Observatory)
    I would say though that there is one key difference. The Scottish secession attempt was in large degree really about Scotland being more left wing than the rest of Britain. The British secession attempt will in large degree really be about Britain being, if not more right wing, at least more in favour of free trade and free markets than the Continent. This alters the character of the EU campaign.
    This is an important but fairly complicated point and has implications for the EU as well.

    The UK is certainly a voice for free trade and free markets in the EU, and it's not alone on this point. Generally the northern European countries are favourable of more free markets whilst southern Europe is more protectionist (CAP, social legislation). If you take the UK out then the northern bloc loses an important blocking vote under QMV system and this worries Germany especially as it may allow the protectionist southern countries to start exerting their will.

    Also in the UK I suspect most of the people that advocate free markets and economic openness will be campaigning for an In vote, whilst most of the protectionists will want us out. The Out lobby wants to clamp down on labour market mobility which is a protectionist movement for a start and if they want to change UK product legislation then it will lose us access to the single market.
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    The 'In' campaign should just be honest and say this:

    We will not get any good deals regarding trade with the EU. All the powerful leaders in the EU believe passionately in the EU and the need for integration rather than separation. They will do whatever it takes, even if it is not in the short-term interests of the EU, to ensure that the UK is worse off outside the EU. They will be determined to send a message to other European countries that their prosperity requires an EU membership.

    The absolute last thing anyone at the top of the EU wants to see is a big economy breaking away and succeeding. That would be the end of the EU. It would be the final fuel that the anti-EU movements across the EU need. France would be next to leave, with nationalists pointing to the UK success story, and the EU project would be over.

    So anything after separation which requires good faith from the EU - forget it. The main objective of every pro-EU player in Europe would be to ensure we fail.
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    (Original post by paddyman4)
    The 'In' campaign should just be honest and say this:

    We will not get any good deals regarding trade with the EU. All the powerful leaders in the EU believe passionately in the EU and the need for integration rather than separation. They will do whatever it takes, even if it is not in the short-term interests of the EU, to ensure that the UK is worse off outside the EU. They will be determined to send a message to other European countries that their prosperity requires an EU membership.

    The absolute last thing anyone at the top of the EU wants to see is a big economy breaking away and succeeding. That would be the end of the EU. It would be the final fuel that the anti-EU movements across the EU need. France would be next to leave, with nationalists pointing to the UK success story, and the EU project would be over.

    So anything after separation which requires good faith from the EU - forget it. The main objective of every pro-EU player in Europe would be to ensure we fail.
    There is some truth in what you say, but you have fallen into the trap of seeing the EU as distinct from its members. One of the great anti-EU fallacies is to take minority views elsewhere in Europe and see these as being the "real" opinions of the inhabitants of those countries.
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    (Original post by MagicNMedicine)
    This is an important but fairly complicated point and has implications for the EU as well.

    The UK is certainly a voice for free trade and free markets in the EU, and it's not alone on this point. Generally the northern European countries are favourable of more free markets whilst southern Europe is more protectionist (CAP, social legislation). If you take the UK out then the northern bloc loses an important blocking vote under QMV system and this worries Germany especially as it may allow the protectionist southern countries to start exerting their will.

    Also in the UK I suspect most of the people that advocate free markets and economic openness will be campaigning for an In vote, whilst most of the protectionists will want us out. The Out lobby wants to clamp down on labour market mobility which is a protectionist movement for a start and if they want to change UK product legislation then it will lose us access to the single market.
    I don't think Britain has a protectionist lobby - at least I'm not aware of one that expresses itself publicly. The farmers will probably have to be bought off at first but I imagine everyone will concede that for the short term.

    Labour mobility does affect trade but not exclusively. I don't think most people who complain about immigration are really interested in changes in wages or unemployment - apart from anything else we don't measure major changes in these due to immigration - they are interested in the cultural make-up of the country.
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    I don't actually think the EU would split if the UK succeeded outside. Most skeptics in the UK seem to think that European governments are imposing something their peoples don't want but actually even in the EU elections there were a lot of EU states who stuck the finger up at skeptics. I can't see a 28 member federal state but the EU is on the path towards 15-20 of them unifying fully, our leaving won't change that.
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    (Original post by Rakas21)
    I don't actually think the EU would split if the UK succeeded outside. Most skeptics in the UK seem to think that European governments are imposing something their peoples don't want but actually even in the EU elections there were a lot of EU states who stuck the finger up at skeptics. I can't see a 28 member federal state but the EU is on the path towards 15-20 of them unifying fully, our leaving won't change that.
    Psychologically it would be devastating to the people in the higher echelons of the organisation. Like the German and Italian nationalists before them, they believe themselves to be merely the corporeal tools enacting the inevitable will of a world-spirit. Britain leaving would show that there's nothing inevitable about the EU, it's just the result of one set of value judgements being widely accepted, and clearly they're not universally accepted.

    I agree, though, that it is unlikely to actually result in a disintegration of the EU. Ireland, Sweden, Denmark, and the Netherlands may reconsider their positions, in that order. Iceland, Norway, and Switzerland would be strengthened in their resolve not to enter. But Germany, France, Italy, and Spain would stay in, as would the Eastern minors. That's plenty enough for an empire.

    This is the basic origin of the division that exists and is growing between Britain and the rest of the EU: most of the population of the EU agrees with British Eurosceptics about the basic nature of the organisation, but think it is a good thing. It's really the British moderate Europhile who occupies an unusual position in Europe, believing the EU to be much less ambitious, powerful, and important than its supporters elsewhere, and its own statements, consider it to be.
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    Well, given that the EU can allocate unlimited amounts of taxpayer's money to it's preferred campaign in national referenda, I think we'd have a rather well equipped 'in' campaign.
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    (Original post by nulli tertius)
    There is some truth in what you say, but you have fallen into the trap of seeing the EU as distinct from its members. One of the great anti-EU fallacies is to take minority views elsewhere in Europe and see these as being the "real" opinions of the inhabitants of those countries.
    Yes this happens a lot and if you scratch a little deeper you can see it doesn't make sense.

    In the European Parliament elections a few months back there were some gains for fringe parties on the right and left. In the UK it was for UKIP, and it quickly got claimed here that these advances were because people were saying they don't want immigration, and they don't want Europe setting regulations.

    In most of these countries, European elections become a way to express dissent towards the existing ruling government, the idea that people were turning out to vote for fringe parties because they were opposed to EU red tape is laughable. Imagine asking a group of UKIP supporters what EU directives they were particularly concerned with and how this has a negative impact on UK business, and they will flounder, most of them wouldn't be able to define a directive, most of them wouldn't know any directives, or if they did know one it would be the Working Time Directive and if you ask them what the WTD says they won't be able to tell you anything beyond the 48 hour limit from which the UK has an opt-out anyway...

    There is some more validity to the argument that it was a reaction against immigration, in that in the UK, France and Denmark, the parties that made large gains in the elections were based on anti-immigration campaigns.

    However there was no Europe-wide vote against immigration. In Greece there was some hype about the far right Golden Dawn party but that polled in single figures, whereas the largest group was Alexis Tsiprass Syriza coalition which is of the far-left groupings. In Portugal the big gainers were the Socialist party.

    In Italy, the Eurosceptics (Five Star) dropped their share of the vote whilst the centre-left Democrats surprised everyone by getting 41 per cent. In the Netherlands, the Eurosceptic Freedom Party dropped from second to fourth, they used to be one of the flagship movements of Europe's far right but they lost ground.

    In Germany the Social Democrats made advances. In Sweden the Feminist Initiative won a seat...the only formal feminist party in Europe, we didn't hear much coverage of that over here did we...

    In the countries where they faced steep austerity the gains weren't for right-wing nationalist anti-immigration movements, they were for the far-left anti-austerity groups. But the British Eurosceptics haven't talked about how these Euro elections were an advance for socialism and a rejection of austerity...

    Most Eurosceptics just don't really know much about what goes on in Europe, but they are keen to further the concept that everyone in Europe is with them, and wants to break away from this oppressive body that is the EU.
 
 
 
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