Should we be worried about the rapid rate of growth of UKIP? Watch

Poll: Should we be worried about the growth of UKIP
Yes (21)
48.84%
No (22)
51.16%
georgeandbertie
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#1
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#1
Any chance they could come into power in 2015?
Even if they don't, the number of MPs will definitely increase.
A cause for concern?
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A Mysterious Lord
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#2
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#2
No one will take them seriously in a general election - remember they came second overall in the 2009 European elections but didn't even come close to a single seat in 2010.
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sdotd
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#3
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#3
They will never be a majority party in Britain but they have been a blessing for this country as it has made the LIBCONLAB finally listen to the concerns of millions of people who want reduced immigration. The only concern is that they will split the tory vote and let labour in which will be terrible
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sdotd
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#4
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(Original post by A Mysterious Lord)
No one will take them seriously in a general election - remember they came second overall in the 2009 European elections but didn't even come close to a single seat in 2010.

They will fair better in this election but you're right that they won't get many seats. They will do well to get 5-10 seats
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WokSz
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#5
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#5
I fail to see what people should be afraid of. Controlling immigration is not the same as murder or rape. It's high time the EU realises that reform is necessary, or countries such as the U.K. will eventually leave.
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nulli tertius
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#6
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#6
(Original post by sdotd)
They will fair better in this election but you're right that they won't get many seats. They will do well to get 5-10 seats
They will do outstandingly well to get one.

Minority parties need to concentrate their efforts. The closure of local newspapers won't help them. The age profile of their membership means they have few deployable resources.


Carswell remains the best bet to hold on to his seat (though it might be a different story if the Tories can get Lord Tebbit out on the stump in Clacton)
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william walker
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#7
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UKIP's growth is dependent upon the lack of social traditionalism of the other parties. Labour and the Conservatives have left the socially conservative roots and voters behind to win votes from the intellectual establishment and young people. So they are losing votes with the working class, middle aged and older people.

UKIP's growth is good if you are a social traditionalist like myself. If you are a Liberal Progressive and Libertarian it is bad.
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nulli tertius
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(Original post by william walker)
UKIP's growth is dependent upon the lack of social traditionalism of the other parties. Labour and the Conservatives are left the socially conservative roots and voters behind to win votes from the intellectual establishment and young people. So they are losing votes with the working class, middle aged and older people.
I don't dispute what you say, but there are three problems for them:-

First of all by definition it is hard to persuade someone who is traditionalist to change political (or any other) allegiance. They may lend their votes when they perceive it does not matter, but it is hard to get them to switch when it does.

Secondly many of these socially traditional people want the things they are not very keen on simply to disappear or rather never to have happened. They are not confrontational and do not want the implications of "turning the clock back". For example they may personally dislike seeing a gay couple holding hands or kissing but would be horrified if a policeman proceeded to arrest them for it.

Thirdly, there aren't as many of them as might appear. The problem is that when you assemble a lot of socially conservative opinions in a bag you find that an awful of people would buy some of the items in the bag but not others.
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sdotd
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#9
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#9
(Original post by nulli tertius)
They will do outstandingly well to get one.

Minority parties need to concentrate their efforts. The closure of local newspapers won't help them. The age profile of their membership means they have few deployable resources.


Carswell remains the best bet to hold on to his seat (though it might be a different story if the Tories can get Lord Tebbit out on the stump in Clacton)
You're right that they need to concentrate their efforts but they will probably realistically challenge 12 seats and win around 3 or 4 which is a start for UKIP


Reckless would still have a good chance of keeping his seat but it will be harder and wherever Farage stands will give UKIP a good chance of winning that seat too
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william walker
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#10
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(Original post by nulli tertius)
I don't dispute what you say, but there are three problems for them:-

First of all by definition it is hard to persuade someone who is traditionalist to change political (or any other) allegiance. They may lend their votes when they perceive it does not matter, but it is hard to get them to switch when it does.

Secondly many of these socially traditional people want the things they are not very keen on simply to disappear or rather never to have happened. They are not confrontational and do not want the implications of "turning the clock back". For example they may personally dislike seeing a gay couple holding hands or kissing but would be horrified if a policeman proceeded to arrest them for it.

Thirdly, there aren't as many of them as might appear. The problem is that when you assemble a lot of socially conservative opinions in a bag you find that an awful of people would buy some of the items in the bag but not others.
Me and my father have moved from the Conservatives to UKIP, other people like us will do the same. Traditionalism means you seek improvement through looking at the past, it doesn't mean don't want to change, it mean you want improvement rather than change.

I am opposed to Abortion and people having children out of marriage. I will force this upon everybody else and I understand in implication. However many Protestants like my mother hate politics and want nothing to do with it. So they don't write letters to people or go on protests. This is a fair point, but they will all vote. People holding hands just doesn't matter the government should have nothing to do with it. I really don't think people holding hands has anything to do with social traditionalism.

I think there are actually more social traditionalists than people think, they just want everybody else to be socially traditionalist but not themselves. The has been the problem with the secularism within the working class, they need social traditionalism to restrain themselves and allow them to seek improvement, but the intellectuals don't need Protestantism because they are smarter and have greater incomes.

Social Traditionalism comes from people basing their lives on the Protestant English language bible, when that is attacked and people stop restraining themselves the government can force its will upon them.
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Jemner01
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#11
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#11
They're not going to win the vote next year, but they will probably pick up quite a few seats from all parties, but mostly the Libs who will lose a lot of seats. I don't see why we should be worried about another right-wing party (Conservatives have been drifting towards the center anyway).
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tyroncs
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#12
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#12
I think all the main parties should be concerned about the rapid rate of growth of UKIP, as they are taking votes from all of them. I think UKIP need to maintain their momentum, so I don't think 2015 will be their best year - I know it is far in the future but I think 2020 will be. It all depends on what happens in the event of an EU referendum
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Rakas21
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#13
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#13
Nothing to worry about.

I struggle to see them winning more than a handful of seats and it's likely the DUP/UUP and Libs will be of far more use to the Tories anyway.
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Ace123
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#14
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#14
I would be more worried about Labour getting in and bankrupting the nation again. UKIP may come to power in 2015, a majority is unlikely but a coalition or confidence and supply agreement is possible. Labour and the Tories both have very unpopular leaders, Tories are losing votes all over because they are the government party and Labour are set to lose many seats to the SNP in Scotland and lose votes to the Greens. Likely neither Labour or Tories will win a majority outright
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Tutankhamun
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#15
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#15
The prospect of a Tory-UKIP coalition frightens me.
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anarchism101
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#16
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#16
A little maybe, but it'll fade eventually. There's not really anything realistic to be done that will alter it, but on the other hand it won't be sustainable for much past the general election.
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Robertus
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#17
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#17
I don't see it as negative at all. The fact that British politics might finally shift from a two/three party system to possibly a five party system (though UKIP/Green/LibDem arguably may never soon win a majority) can only, in my opinion, be positive.

Plus, the presence of UKIP is forcing the hand of both the Conservatives and Labour on issues they were previously unwilling to take serious action on - namely the EU and immigration reform. In terms of Europe specifically, we have a much greater amount of mainstream political discourse in the run-up to the next election now, as we have one very strong anti-EU party (UKIP), one moderately Euro-sceptic party (Tories), two moderately pro-EU parties (Labour/Greens), and one strongly pro-EU party (LibDem). Immigration reform is also now being seriously addressed by the Conservatives.

I think UKIP could do a lot more to remove extremist influence in its ranks, but overall it seems clear that the far-right of UKIP exists almost entirely among its support base and lower-ranking officials, rather than its actual prominent figures. As a whole, UKIP's leadership seems to range from men like Farage who can best be compared to many US Republicans, to those like Douglas Carswell with a more moderate and inclusive platform - proposing anti-EU policies and democratic reform above all. When judged on these terms, the party can hardly be viewed as socially harmful, but unfortunately I feel they've been hit by the brunt of extreme public anger towards immigration that once occupied the BNP, English Democrats and other such organisations. With those parties rapidly fading and UKIP rising, it's not surprising that several on the far-right are opting to support UKIP as the "best bet" for achieving their aims simply because, generally speaking, they are the most right-wing mainstream party.
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anarchism101
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#18
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#18
(Original post by Robertus)
In terms of Europe specifically, we have a much greater amount of mainstream political discourse in the run-up to the next election now, as we have one very strong anti-EU party (UKIP), one moderately Euro-sceptic party (Tories), two moderately pro-EU parties (Labour/Greens), and one strongly pro-EU party (LibDem).
They don't really focus on it a lot, but the Greens have generally been soft Eurosceptics rather than 'pro-EU' as such (if you're using Labour as the comparison).
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miser
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#19
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#19
My dad told me Nigel Farage was his favourite politician last night. The problem isn't just UKIP but what people want.
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Rakas21
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#20
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(Original post by anarchism101)
They don't really focus on it a lot, but the Greens have generally been soft Eurosceptics rather than 'pro-EU' as such (if you're using Labour as the comparison).
It could be said that supporting the EU is a centrist position. The extreme left hate it being a neo-liberal entity and encouraging labour competition while the extreme right hate the sovereignty aspect.
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